Emmy Predictions: 2015

I know, I know. The 2014 Emmys are still fresh in our minds. I'd have to be some kind of TV award addict to already be thinking about next year. My annual way too early Emmy predictions have become a bit of a tradition. It's fun to look at what the next year holds and look for trends or inevitabilities down the line. As you can tell from previous editions of this (2012, 2013, 2014), I'm not very good at this. Let's see if I can do any better this time.

Modern Family loses and to a show that is already on the air.
It has been losing nominations the past two years. I thought it was at the tipping point in 2014 and was wrong. No comedy has even won six times and it is unfathomable for Modern Family to break that trend. Looking at the new comedies this year though, I don't see someone in that group capable of dethroning Modern Family, so something like Veep will have to break through or Big Bang's popularity needs to be enough.

There is no Mad Men resurgence
A popular theory I'm hearing is that Mad Men's final season is going to be a return to Emmy favor. Simply put, that won't happen. That's no how the Emmys work. Breaking Bad is the invisible pink unicorn, not the standard case. Hamm will get his nomination (maybe even a win in a weakened field). Another actor or two (Hendricks, Moss, Slattery) may see a nomination. The series gets a last nomination, but there won't be a feeling of anything being owed to the four time winner and it will not be going home with the big prize.

Outstanding Drama series goes back to HBO.
It's hard to believe that with all its perceived dominance in "prestige TV", HBO has only ever won Outstanding Drama Series with one show: The Sopranos. With AMC's power twosome finally down or out, it's time for HBO to break through again. Maybe Game of Thrones stays strong enough to sneak a win. Perhaps True Detective season 2 avoids the backlash the first season experienced. With HBO, I never count out the possibility that they'll come out with something new that starts a new dynasty. All I know is that I don't count them out.

Orange is the New Black takes a hit in nominations but it still a player.
Had Orange pulled even one win on Monday night, I'd be picking Orange to win it all next year. The way it played out though makes it look like an Emmy "flavor of the month" show. It could still win, but it will do it with fewer nominations. Taylor Schilling will have a harder time getting nominated next year due to a decreased role this season and I predict many more cast members to submit as Supporting Actress which will be harder to break into than the Guest Actress field they took over this year.

Silicon Valley doesn't fall out of the Comedy field.
I'm probably being bullish here. Silicon Valley was a surprise of nomination day. It's a crude show that had a brief, 8 episode season, with a full story arc, and starred familiar guys who play the nerdy best friends in other shows and movies. Still, I don't see it dropping out. There's plenty for the second season to do and I'm not sure that I see anything knocking it out. Make no mistake though, it is the most likely of the six nominees to not return.

Two of the three, Emmy Rossum, Keri Russell, Tatiana Maslany finally get much deserved nominations for their shows.
Yes, I'm being foolish. These three have been snubbed a combined eight times in the last four years. Both the Comedy and Drama Lead Actress fields are going through some attrition and they have to recognize some of their brilliant work. With this year's Emmys being marred by complacency, there could be a push to bring in with the new next year and this would be a great way how.

Arrow gets that Stunt Coordination nomination
I wouldn't even suggest this if I hadn't heard so many critics this year calling this one of the biggest snubs on nomination day. Certainly, the show deserves this recognition and will next year too. It's not a "valuable" nomination, so there's no reason for the Emmys to not give in and make sure it finally gets that nomination.

Last Week Tonight crashes the Variety Series field and wins.
I'm not sure if it replaces placeholder, Jimmy Kimmel Live, takes the hole left by The Colbert Report,  or takes over HBO's slot filled by Real Time, but I don't see how Last Week Tonight doesn't show up for Variety Series, where it stands a very good chance of winning. It has the web presence, the buzz, the writing, the host, and too much of the winning formula that has made The Daily Show so successful.

RuPaul's Drag Race finally gets a nomination either for the series or host, if not both.
I'm not asking for much. This is the most entertaining show in the Reality Competition field. It's a great way for the Emmy voters to look progressive while also being completely deserving.

Mike Schur will be watch from home.
Ok, not watching from home, but he won't be competing for anything. I don't see how Parks & Rec. could magically gain traction in its final season (a throw-away season on NBC's schedule). The better chance is that voters discover Brooklyn Nine Nine. I somehow doubt it though. While both shows are certain to be two of the best comedies on TV, this is the Academy that just handed Modern Family its fifth consecutive award. I have little hope.

Bonus: I will have seen at least two of the Mini-Series/Movie nominees.
I finally broke down and watched a couple things this year. Let's keep that trend going and build on it. And, to clarify, this means that if they split Mini-Series and Movie again, I'll see two from each. If they are joined, I'll still only see two.