Delayed Reaction: The Wedding Guest

Premise: A man is hired to “kidnap” a woman arranged to marry someone else, then things fall apart.

 

2018 sure gave me the wrong impression about where Dev Patel’s career was going. That year, he came out with Hotel Mumbai and The Wedding Guest. I saw those trailers and really thought Patel was turning into an action movie star. I mean, Hotel Mumbai is a hostage movie in which Patel tries to lead a group of people out of a hotel taken over by terrorists. The Wedding Guest is a hired gun movie. These sound like action movies. It turns out, neither are. Not really. Hotel Mumbai is based on true events. Patel doesn’t rescue the group. He’s mostly just a POV character. The movie is a pretty grim drama, actually. The Wedding Guest is also a lot more subdued. There’s the quick shootout early on, but it’s not a movie about Patel running from the law and dodging pursuers. It’s more of a romantic drama of sorts. When you throw in The Green Knight this year, Patel is really specializing in being in the smart versions of movies that should be dumb movies.

 

Anyway, I enjoyed The Wedding Guest. My misunderstanding about it even helped my enjoyment. The entire movie, I was tense waiting for the moment when Radhika Apte’s family catches them. All those patient shots in the movie or wide shots to take in the location felt like setting up the geography of a location for when Patel had to shoot his way out of it. The movie is a thriller, so I think some of that was an intentional misdirect. The movie had a much softer edge than most movies of its ilk. It always decides for the less intense option. Patel’s “shootout”: just two shots and only because he missed on the first shot. When he has to hide Apte’s boyfriend’s body, no close calls where he’s almost caught. When Apte leaves him: she does it while he’s sleeping, leaving him half the money, and no overwrought drama. This is a movie that I’m talking my way into liking even more.

 

Verdict: Weakly Recommend

Quick Reaction: Les Misérables (1935)

This is what happens when I don’t update my Netflix queue. I get the “eat your vegetables” movies that I tell myself I want to watch but don’t really want to. I forget the exact way this ended up on my list. Probably an Oscar hit or National Board of Review selection. I like occasionally watching the movies that people thought were important at the time. It helps me contextualize something like a Philomena in more modern times. Good movie but no legs.

 

This is a Les Misérables adaptation, plain and simple. What’s interesting with something as adapted and extensive as Les Misérables is how it’s adapted. What’s cut out? Which characters get focus? Etc. This one focuses heavily on Fredric March’s Jean Valjean. It does develop any of the other characters all that much. It certainly cuts down Fantine’s role, no doubt because of Hays Code-type concerns. The simple approach does cut down on the expansiveness that has made the story so enduring, but I kind of liked the streamlined approach to it. I didn’t even think it was possible to do a Les Mis adaptation that’s under 2 hours.

 

Verdict: Weakly Don’t Recommend

Final Oscar Predictions

OK. Moment of truth. I've gone through nearly all of this in detail for the last week. Now it's tome to lock everything in. It's mostly the same as what I posted. I did add Shorts and I've changed Lead Actress a little, because it's such a toss up. Wish me luck.

Live-Action Short*
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Could Win: Please Hold
Should Win: Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

*When all else is the same, they go with the most famous actor, who is Riz Ahmed in The Long Goodbye. Otherwise, Please Hold plays like a Black Mirror, which do so well at the Emmys.

Animated Short*
Will Win: Robin Robin
Could Win: Bestia
Should Win: Robin Robin

*Robin Robin is the only one I saw that it's a bummer. And Oscar voters do tend to love Aardman Animation.

Documentary Short*
Will Win: Lead Me Home
Could Win: Audible
Should Win: The Queen of Basketball

*Ever since that awful Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 won a few years ago, I realized Oscar voters will give this to the option that has anything to do with Los Angeles or California. And Lead Me Home plays on Oscar voter guilt without actually asking anything of them. Beyond that, Audible has that Cheer appeal.

Documentary Feature
Will Win: Summer of Soul
Could Win: Flee
Should Win: Flee

Animated Feature
Will Win: Encanto
Could Win: The Michells vs. the Machines
Should Win: Flee

International Film
Will Win: Drive My Car
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should Win: Flee

Visual Effects
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Should Win: Dune

Sound
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Should Win: Dune

Production Design
Will Win: Nightmare Alley
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune

Original Score
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Dune

Original Song
Will Win: "Dos Oruguitas" (Encanto)
Could Win: "No Time to Die" (No Time to Die)
Should Win: "Dos Oruguitas" (Encanto)

Makeup & Hair-Styling
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Cruella
Should Win: Dune

Film Editing
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: King Richard
Should Win: Tick, Tick...Boom!

Costume Design
Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Cyrano

Cinematography
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Nightmare Alley
Should Win: Dune

Original Screenplay
Will Win: Licorice Pizza
Could Win: Don't Look Up
Should Win: Belfast

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Power of the Dog

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Troy Kutsur (CODA)
Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Should Win: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

Lead Actor
Will Win: Will Smith (King Richard)
Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Should Win: Will Smith (King Richard)

Lead Actress
Will Win: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Could Win: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Should Win: Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)

Director
Will Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Should Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Picture
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Could Win: CODA
Should Win: The Power of the Dog

Oscar Predictions: Production Design & Cinematography

It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.

 

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

 

 

Previously:

Introduction & International Feature

Original Song & Score

Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling

Supporting Actor & Actress

Lead Actor & Actress     

Sound & Visual Effects

Director & Film Editing

Original & Adapted Screenplay

Animated & Documentary Feature

Best Picture

 

Glossary

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

ADG - Art Director's Guild Award

ACS - American Cinematographer Society Award

 

Best Production Design

(In Order of Likelihood)

 

Nightmare Alley

BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee

ADG - Period Production Design – Winner 

 

Dune

BAFTA - Production Design - Winner

ADG - Fantasy Production Design – Winner 

 

West Side Story

ADG - Period Production Design – Nominee 

 

The Tragedy of Macbeth

ADG - Period Production Design – Nominee 

 

The Power of the Dog

 

Production Design is prone to getting weird. There are trends but no hard rules. The BAFTA and ADG awards agreeing is nice. It’s happened 11 times in the last two decades and 8 of those went on to win the Oscar. The Oscar winner has also won at least one of the ADG or BAFTA 16 of 20 times. When the category goes rogue, there’s not much consistency. It’s not a Best Picture indicator or correlated that closely with any award like Costumes or Cinematography. The best test is the lazy one: What production design yells the loudest at you?  That’s why Tim Burton and Baz Lurhman films have fared so well. Burton’s Alice in Wonderland (2010) and Sweeny Todd (2007) both won without precursor wins. Lurhman’s Moulin Rogue! (2001) took it from Amelie, and The Great Gatsby (2013) cruised to the win.

 

With all that in mind, I’m going on a limb and picking Nightmare Alley over presumed favorite, Dune. Two Guillermo Del Toro films have won this award before (Pan’s Labyrinth – 2006, The Shape of Water – 2017). Two of Denis Villeneuve’s films have lost this before (Arrival – 2016, Blade Runner 2049 – 2017). Eagle-eyed readers will even see that one of those losses was to a Del Toro film. For whatever reason, Academy voters aren’t so keen on Villenue’s spacy looking Production Design. They like the more elemental look of Del Toro’s films*. That fits with a lot of past results. Mad Max: Fury Road beat The Martian in 2015. The Great Gatsby beat Gravity in 2013. Alice in Wonderland over Inception (2010). The Grand Budapest Hotel over Interstellar (2014). I’m probably being too clever by half picking against Dune. It does seem like the obvious winner. Something in my gut doesn’t trust it though.

 

*All the Production Design nominations were different Art Directors and Set Decorators. The directors are the common element, so that’s why I’m focusing on them.

 

After those two, it’s hard to see any of these winning. West Side Story can point to La La Land winning in 2016. It doesn’t have the overall support that La La Land had though. I think we forget how dominant La La Land looked before Moonlight took Best Picture. The Tragedy of Macbeth’s Production Design is absolutely going to get credited to its Cinematography instead. I think The Power of the Dog showing up here is more a show of overall support than an indication that something is brewing here. The closest analog I can find is Lincoln winning in 2012 after losing the BAFTA and ADG. The Power of the Dog wasn’t even nominated for those though.

 

Best Cinematography

(In Order of Likelihood)

 

Dune

ASC - Cinematography – Winner

BAFTA - Cinematography - Winner

 

Nightmare Alley

ASC - Cinematography – Nominee

BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee

 

The Tragedy of Macbeth

ASC - Cinematography – Nominee

BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee

 

The Power of the Dog

ASC - Cinematography – Nominee

BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee

 

West Side Story

 

8 of the last 10 times a film took both the ASC and BAFTA award, it also one the Oscar. One of those exceptions was Pan’s Labyrinth winning the Oscar after Children of Men took the precursors. That’s a point in favor of Nightmare Alley. The other time was The Fellowship of the Ring, a technical awards giant that year, winning the Oscar over precursor favorite, The Man Who Wasn’t There. That’s a point in favor of fellow technical giant, Dune. In balance, that leaves Dune significantly ahead. Oh, and Denis Villeneuve’s last film, Blade Runner 2049, also won this. Mank and Roma winning two of the last three years makes me worried I’m not giving The Tragedy of Macbeth’s gorgeous black and white cinematography enough of a chance. There’s a chance that The Power of the Dog could swoop in as part of a Best Picture run. That isn’t very common though. Best Picture and Cinematography have only matched once in the last decade (Birdman). West Side Story probably should be more in this race, but the only recent similar winner was La La Land, which had a lot more going for it.

 

Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature & Documentary Feature

It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.

 

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

 

Previously:

Introduction & International Feature

Original Song & Score

Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling

Supporting Actor & Actress

Lead Actor & Actress    

Sound & Visual Effects

Director & Film Editing

Original & Adapted Screenplay

Best Picture

 

Glossary

Annie - Awards for Animation

Eddie - American Cinema Editors Award

PGA - Producers Guild of America Award

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association Award

DGA - Director's Guild of America

 

 

Best Animated Feature

(In Order of Likelihood)

Encanto

Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee

PGA - Animated Feature - Winner

BAFTA - Animated Feature - Winner

Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Winner

Eddie - Edited Animated Feature – Winner

 

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Annie - Animated Feature - Winner

PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee

BAFTA - Animated Feature - Nominee

Eddie - Edited Animated Feature – Nominee

 

Flee

BAFTA - Animated Feature - Nominee

Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee

 

Luca

Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee

PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee

BAFTA - Animated Feature - Nominee

Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee

 

Raya and the Last Dragon

Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee

PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee

Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee

Eddie - Edited Animated Feature – Nominee

 

Every year there’s a “Disney Spoiler” that a lot of people who think about this stuff too long talk themselves into believing can win it. Wolkwalkers (2020). Klaus (2019). Kubo and the Two Strings (2016). Anomalisa (2015). The LEGO Movie (2014). The Wind Rises (2013). Paranorman (2012). The only time it has worked in the last 10+ years was Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (2018). And for Spider-Verse to do it, it had to win every single precursor award that season. For that reason, I don’t take The Mitchells vs. the Machines seriously. The only reason to worry about Encanto’s chances at all is because Disney has three nominees in the field. The only other time that happened was 2012, when Brave managed to win despite Frankenweenie and Wreck-It Ralph hanging around. Also, no film has ever won 4 of the precursor awards and failed to win the Oscar. They are 9/9.

 

As I’ve said or will say two other times, I’m afraid Flee’s trio of nominations will do it more harm than good. Of its three nominations, this is the one I’m most OK with it not standing a real chance in. The animation is a necessary feature of the film, but it’s not the greatest animation you’re going to find. It’s a doc first and animated second. It’s not winning, no matter how cool a win would be. I don’t have to say much about Luca or Raya. Everyone has agreed on Encanto being the supported Disney film.

 

Best Documentary Feature

(In Order of Likelihood)

 

Summer of Soul

Eddie - Edited Documentary Feature - Winner

DGA - Directed Documentary – Nominee

PGA -Documentary Feature - Winner

BAFTA - Documentary Feature – Winner

 

Flee

Eddie - Edited Documentary Feature - Nominee

PGA -Documentary Feature - Nominee

BAFTA - Documentary Feature – Nominee

 

Attica

DGA - Directed Documentary – Winner

 

Ascension

DGA - Directed Documentary – Nominee

PGA -Documentary Feature - Nominee

 

Writing with Fire

PGA -Documentary Feature - Nominee

 

I could point to the fact the no doc has won 3 of the 4 main precursor awards and lost the Oscar. It’s 6/6 since 2009*. However, with Documentary Feature, it’s better to pick by feel. To get Oscar voters to watch a documentary, they need to feel something. That’s why music docs do so well (Amy – 2015, Twenty Feet From Stardom – 2013, Searching for Sugarman – 2012). If not that, when they can recognize something from the news, that’s a plus (American Factory – 2019, Icarus – 2017, OJ: Made in America – 2016, Citizenfour – 2014). The latest exceptions are My Octopus Teacher (2020) and Free Solo (2018). Both of those were crowdpleasers. Summer of Soul is the best combination of all these things this year. It addresses race while also being a lot of fun with the concert footage. It’s a crowdpleaser that makes you think, which is a weapon in the Documentary Feature category.

 

*The BAFTA award has only been around since 2011 and the PGA since 2007. The precursor history isn’t all that rich here.

 

Flee is a paper tiger, I’m afraid. Not because it’s bad. In fact, it’s one of my favorite movies of the year. What I mean is that the absolutely unique triple nomination looks formidable. However, it splits the vote. Some will want it to win in Animated Feature to take down Disney. Others will want to award it in International Feature since the other big nominees there have other major nods. And there are other directions to go in Documentary Feature. Support hasn’t coalesced around any one nomination for Flee, sadly. Documentary is its best chance, I’d say. Summer of Soul is a much easier movie though. Attica is too much of a bummer. Ascension is a little too esoteric from my understanding. Writing With Fire I really liked but it’s a little dull and has the language barrier.