It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Introduction & International Feature
Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling
Glossary
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Award presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award
(In Order of Likelihood)
Troy Kutsur (CODA)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Winner
BAFTA - Supporting Actor – Winner
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Winner
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor – Nominee
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor – Nominee
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
BAFTA - Supporting Actor – Nominee
It’s pretty simple. Win two of the precursors and you’re probably winning the Oscar. It really helps that the one Troy Kutsur didn’t win was the Globe which both got the least attention and came first. Kutsur has all the momentum with him. He’s played the circuit well. He even gets a little help with some Power of the Dog vote splitting. It’s by no means a lock. Just ask Eddie Murphy in 2006* or Christopher Walken in 2002**. While Academy voters have chosen to spread the love lately, it’s always possible that a movie could use Best Picture momentum to sweep. It’s bound to happen again eventually. Why not Power of the Dog? Kodi Smit-McPhee has the bonus of being a lead when he’s on the screen but disappearing in the middle. A win for him would be a lot like Daniel Kaluuya’s last year in that way. And if you love The Power of the Dog, a lot of it comes from his performance. Voters like to make young performers work for it for a few years though, not to mention the vote splitting. Ciaran Hinds is an emotional pick for Belfast: a movie that seems to be fading everywhere. Simmons has won before which wears out some of the novelty of this nomination. Simmons for Being the Ricardos feels a lot more like Sam Rockwell getting that Vice nomination after winning for Three Billboards. I’m happy to see Plemons nominated. Who is actually picking him over Smit-McPhee though? His role just isn’t as juicy and trails off late.
* Murphy won the Globe and the SAG for Dreamgirls before losing to Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine. A surprise, yes, but the lack of overall nominations for the movie was an indication that Dreamgirls love wasn’t that strong with the Academy.
** Walken won the BAFTA and SAG awards for Catch Me if You Can then lost to Chris Cooper for Adaptation. I don’t remember that ceremony enough to say how that played out. It certainly didn’t help that Walken already had an Oscar and Chris Cooper won that as a sort of Lifetime Achievement award.
(In Order of Likelihood)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Winner
SAG - Supporting Actress - Winner
BAFTA - Supporting Actress – Winner
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress – Nominee
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
BAFTA - Supporting Actress – Nominee
Look, the last 8 times someone has swept all three precursors, they won this Oscar. I stopped at 8 not because the 9th time breaks the trend but because I can only go back to 1994, when the SAG awards started. Even the infamous Marcia Gay Harden win for Pollack* came in a year of fractured precursor winners. Then there’s the fact that it’s increasingly looking like Supporting Actress will be the place voters congregate around to award West Side Story. Ariana DeBose has this locked up. If I’m looking for a spoiler, it's Aunjanue Ellis who has been hitting the events hard and has worked with a lot of people over the years. No SAG nomination hurts, since her biggest support would need to coming from the acting branch of the Academy. Dunst has a loooooong overdue nomination and it’s for the presumed Best Picture frontrunner. That’s a good formula. And it would be weird if no one from The Power of the Dog won. Judi Dench has won before for a small part. Don’t forget though that even when she won for Shakespeare in Love, she had a BAFTA win too. A fading Belfast and not a single precursor nomination doesn’t look good for her. Buckley is just happy to be nominated. You can’t convince me otherwise.
*She didn’t get any precursor nominations for Pollack, let alone wins, then somehow took the Oscar.
No comments:
Post a Comment