It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Introduction & International Feature
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
CDG - Costume Designers Guild Award
M&HG - Hollywood Makeup and Hair Stylist Guild Award
(In Order of Likelihood)
Cruella
BATFA - Costume Design - Winner
CDG - Period Costume Design – Winner
Dune
BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee
CDG - Fantasy Costume Design – Winner
Cyrano
BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee
CDG - Period Costume Design – Nominee
West Side Story
CDG - Period Costume Design – Nominee
Nightmare Alley
BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee
CDG - Period Costume Design – Nominee
8 of the last 9 times a film won a CDG and BAFTA awards, it also won the Oscar. The one exception was Black Panther winning the Oscar after The Favorite took both. Black Panther also won a CDG award though, so it didn’t come totally out of the blue. The only time in the last two decades I can’t really account for how a film got the win was Fantastic Beasts in 2016. If you called that, congratulations. To me, Cruella is an obvious winner. It has the wins and the movie is about the costumes more than any other nominee. If I’m looking for the Black Panther of the group, that’s Dune, but don’t forget that part of the campaign for Black Panther’s costuming was getting the first black woman the award. There’s no “narrative” to a Dune win, and so many other elements of that film stand out over the costuming. The fact that this is Cyrano’s lone nomination means the costuming is a thing that stood out with the branch. Costume Design is often the loudest, not the best costuming. Many other parts about Cyrano are louder though. West Side Story would probably need to be the favorite in a lot more categories to be considered here. Finally, Nightmare Alley…I don’t have a good reason. I just do think it’s winning here. It feels like a case where the production design masks the costume design more than it complements it.
(In Order of Likelihood)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
BAFTA - Makeup - Winner
M&HG - Period/Character Makeup - Nominee
M&HG - Period/Character Hairstyling - Nominee
Cruella
BAFTA - Makeup - Nominee
M&HG - Period/Character Makeup - Winner
M&HG - Period/Character Hairstyling - Nominee
House of Gucci
BAFTA - Makeup - Nominee
M&HG - Period/Character Makeup - Nominee
M&HG - Period/Character Hairstyling - Nominee
Dune
BAFTA - Makeup - Nominee
M&HG - Period/Character Makeup - Nominee
Coming 2 America
M&HG - Contemporary Makeup - Winner
M&HG – Contemporary Hairstyling – Winner
The makeup is in the title. Much like how the costumes are the stars of Cruella, the makeup is the star of The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Bombshell. Vice. Darkest Hour. If the makeup can be tied to a transformation of a famous actor, it’s getting the Oscar. There aren’t fantastic competitors here either. Cruella and House of Gucci are less about transformation and more about the overall style of the film*. The makeup works with the costumes and gets credited to the costumes. The creature makeup had a run earlier in the 2000s with Lord of the Rings, The Chronicles of Narnia, and Pan’s Labyrinth winning the award. Fury Road winning in 2015 has been more the exception than the rule lately, so I don’t expect Dune to win. And, the original Coming to America lost back in the day. The only time that I can find where an Eddie Murphy transformation ever won was The Nutty Professor in 1996. That movie made a much bigger dent in pop culture though, not to mention lesser competition. Even though the guild likes Coming 2 America, I’m not seeing it.
*OK, maybe Jared Leto.
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