It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Introduction & International Feature
Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling
Glossary
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Award presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
WGA - Writers Guild of America Awards
(In Order of Likelihood)
Licorice Pizza
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Winner
Golden Globes - Screenplay – Nominee
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Don’t Look Up
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globes - Screenplay – Nominee
WGA - Original Screenplay - Winner
Belfast
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globes - Screenplay – Winner
WGA - Ineligible
The Worst Person in the World
WGA - Ineligible
King Richard
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Personally, I think this is more of a toss up than Best Picture. The precursors split three ways. Neither Best Picture favorite is in here. There’s hardly a narrative around anyone here. I’m just going to go with my gut. King Richard will have wins elsewhere on Oscar night, so there’s no reason to vote for it here. The Worst Person in the World didn’t show up in any of the precursors. That’s pretty uncommon. A film hasn’t won like that since The Pianist in 2002, which had more overall Academy love. No one paid attention to the Globes and Belfast couldn’t win the BAFTA. That’s a bad sign. The WGA win is pretty valuable for Don’t Look Up. Adam McKay already has an Oscar though. Paul Thomas Anderson has 11 nominations without a win yet. This could be a Spike Lee/BlackKklansman moment for him. There isn’t much buzz about that happening, but it's all I have.
(In Order of Likelihood)
CODA
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Winner
WGA - Adapted Screenplay – Winner
The Power of the Dog
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globes - Screenplay – Nominee
WGA - Ineligible
Drive My Car
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Dune
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Adapted Screenplay – Nominee
The Lost Daughter
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Ineligible
I don’t trust this, but I’m going to go with it anyway. CODA won the WGA in a field without The Power of the Dog. However, there was no reason for it to win the BAFTA. The BAFTA has match 5 of the last Oscar 6 winners. The one exception was the Moonlight year when it qualified as Original Screenplay for BAFTA and Adapted for Oscar. With the exception of 2018, every time since 2010 that the eventual Oscar winner was eligible for the WGA, it also won the WGA. So, it’s possible for CODA to still lose the Oscar with the WGA/BAFTA combo, but it has the strongest argument to win it. I don’t think The Power of the Dog is that far behind though. That has a script that evolves with your understanding of the movie. And since I consider it my Best Picture favorite, a screenplay win would be likely. 15 of the last 20 Best Picture winners also won a Screenplay Oscar. That’s even better than the Best Picture/Director combo (13/20). Drive My Car, Dune, and The Lost Daughter certainly could win. Their cases just aren’t as compelling.
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