Final Oscar Predictions

OK. Moment of truth. I've gone through nearly all of this in detail for the last week. Now it's tome to lock everything in. It's mostly the same as what I posted. I did add Shorts and I've changed Lead Actress a little, because it's such a toss up. Wish me luck.

Live-Action Short*
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Could Win: Please Hold
Should Win: Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

*When all else is the same, they go with the most famous actor, who is Riz Ahmed in The Long Goodbye. Otherwise, Please Hold plays like a Black Mirror, which do so well at the Emmys.

Animated Short*
Will Win: Robin Robin
Could Win: Bestia
Should Win: Robin Robin

*Robin Robin is the only one I saw that it's a bummer. And Oscar voters do tend to love Aardman Animation.

Documentary Short*
Will Win: Lead Me Home
Could Win: Audible
Should Win: The Queen of Basketball

*Ever since that awful Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 won a few years ago, I realized Oscar voters will give this to the option that has anything to do with Los Angeles or California. And Lead Me Home plays on Oscar voter guilt without actually asking anything of them. Beyond that, Audible has that Cheer appeal.

Documentary Feature
Will Win: Summer of Soul
Could Win: Flee
Should Win: Flee

Animated Feature
Will Win: Encanto
Could Win: The Michells vs. the Machines
Should Win: Flee

International Film
Will Win: Drive My Car
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should Win: Flee

Visual Effects
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Should Win: Dune

Sound
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Should Win: Dune

Production Design
Will Win: Nightmare Alley
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune

Original Score
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Dune

Original Song
Will Win: "Dos Oruguitas" (Encanto)
Could Win: "No Time to Die" (No Time to Die)
Should Win: "Dos Oruguitas" (Encanto)

Makeup & Hair-Styling
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Cruella
Should Win: Dune

Film Editing
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: King Richard
Should Win: Tick, Tick...Boom!

Costume Design
Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Cyrano

Cinematography
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Nightmare Alley
Should Win: Dune

Original Screenplay
Will Win: Licorice Pizza
Could Win: Don't Look Up
Should Win: Belfast

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Power of the Dog

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Troy Kutsur (CODA)
Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Should Win: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

Lead Actor
Will Win: Will Smith (King Richard)
Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Should Win: Will Smith (King Richard)

Lead Actress
Will Win: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Could Win: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Should Win: Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)

Director
Will Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Should Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Picture
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Could Win: CODA
Should Win: The Power of the Dog