It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Introduction & International Feature
Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling
Glossary
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
VES - Visual Effects Guild's Award
CAS - Cinema Audio Society Awards
Golden Reel - Motion Picture Sound Editors Award
(In Order of Likelihood)
Dune
BAFTA - Sound – Winner
CAS - Sound Mixing - Winner
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Winner
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Winner
Golden Reel - Music - Nominee
West Side Story
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
CAS - Sound Mixing - Nominee
Golden Reel - Music - Winner
No Time To Die
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
CAS - Sound Mixing - Nominee
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Nominee
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Nominee
The Power of the Dog
CAS - Sound Mixing - Nominee
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Nominee
Belfast
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Nominee
I feel like I’ve spent a lot of time talking myself out of Dune wins, so here are a couple easy ones. This is only the second year of the combined Sound award for the Oscars, so trend data is a little weird. Does it lean more Sound Mixing or Sound Editing? It’s hard to say. It does simplify getting in the Oscar voters’ heads though. Now I just have to ask “What movie is loud and sounds good?” Every indicator says Dune is the winner. BAFTA, a general voting body, picked Dune. The Sound Mixers guild (CAS) picked Dune. The Sound Editors guild (Golden Reels) picked them for Effects/Foley, which is the key one for a film like Dune. As a musical, West Side Story is the best available spoiler for Dune. It did win the Feature Music Golden Reel, which is a requirement to stay in consideration. Wins like Sounds of Metal and Bohemian Rhapsody in recent years tell me voters respond more to music than musicals here. No Time to Die has some slight hope. Bond films have won before. Granted, Skyfall needed a tie to win and it was way more loved by Oscar voters. The Power of the Dog would be a weird win. It’s not a technical powerhouse, and they are rarely swayed here by Best Picture frontrunners. The same goes for Belfast.
(In Order of Likelihood)
Dune
BAFTA - Visual Effects – Winner
VES – Visual Effects (Photoreal) – Winner
VES – Compositioning (Photoreal) - Winner
VES – Compositioning (Photoreal) - Nominee
VES – Created Environment (Photoreal) - Nominee
VES – Models - Winner
VES – Effects Simulations (Photoreal) – Winner
Spider-Man: No Way Home
VES – Visual Effects (Photoreal) – Nominee
VES – Compositioning (Photoreal) - Nominee
VES – Created Environment (Photoreal) - Winner
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
VES – Visual Effects (Photoreal) – Nominee
VES – Compositioning (Photoreal) - Nominee
VES – Effects Simulations (Photoreal) – Nominee
VES – Virtual Cinematography – Nominee
No Time To Die
BAFTA - Visual Effects – Nominee
VES – Visual Effects (Photoreal) – Nominee
Free Guy
BAFTA - Visual Effects – Nominee
Unlike the Sound award, Visual Effects has been maddeningly swayed by prestige or Oscar frontrunners in recent years. All three of the recent Planet of the Apes films lost to movies with more Oscar pedigree. I still don’t think anyone can explain Ex Machina beating Fury Road and The Force Awakens*. The VES awards aren’t amazingly predictive. Infinity War tore through the VES awards before losing to the more prestigey First Man in 2018. Even still, it’s hard to pick against Dune here. Unlike Production Design, which I’ll get to in a couple days, Denis Villenue films haven’t had trouble winning here before. Blade Runner 2049 got the award in 2017. Dune has a Best Picture nomination, so even the stuffy Oscar voters can pick it with a clear conscience. It all makes too much sense for Dune to win.
*To be clear, all three of those are all-time favorite movies of mine. I love that Ex Machina has an Oscar, but it’s still weird.
No MCU film has won the Visual Effects Oscar. They are 0/10 going into this Oscar season. In fact, no superhero movie of any sort has won since Spider-Man 2 in 2004. I’m not going to scream “conspiracy” but it sure is indicative of a bias going on. And it certainly means things aren’t looking good for No Way Home or Shang-Chi. Bond films haven’t fared any better, so No Time To Die isn’t looking great. Finally, I can’t find any historical equivalent to a Free Guy win. It’s very much there because they didn’t watch The Matrix Resurrections and weren’t about to pick a third superhero movie (Black Widow, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, The Suicide Squad, etc.).
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