It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Introduction & International Feature
Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling
Glossary
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
DGA Award - Director's Guild of America
Eddie - American Cinema Editors Award
(In Order of Likelihood)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
DGA - Director - Winner
BAFTA - Director - Winner
Golden Globes - Director – Winner
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
DGA - Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director - Nominee
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
DGA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globes - Director – Nominee
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
BAFTA - Director - Nominee
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
DGA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globes - Director – Nominee
This doesn’t matter past Jane Campion. In the last 20 years, the precursors have all agreed on a director 10 times. 8 times, that person also won the Oscar. One of the two exceptions was when Ben Affleck wasn’t even nominated for Argo, so we can throw it out. The other time was 2019, when Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) swooped in at the last second and took it from Sam Mendes (1917). There are two likely reasons to explain that. 1) Mendes already had a Best Director win for American Beauty. Was he really “Two Time Winner” good? 2) Parasite came on late in that season and took the win along with Best Picture. Well, this would be Jane Campion’s first Best Director win. Also, I don’t see any of these other directors swooping in. CODA is the movie with the late momentum, and that director isn’t nominated. Even though people are finally discovering West Side Story, there’s no discussion of getting Spielberg a second Oscar*. And, of course, Campion has been working the circuit lately and almost single-handedly rebuilt The Power of the Dog’s momentum. She’s going to win this.
*He really should have at least two by now, but that’s a rant for another time.
I’ll try to put the other 4 in order of likelihood to win anyway. It is odd that PTA doesn’t have a Best Director trophy yet, since he’s the star of his movies. A win is overdue. Perhaps Spielberg finds some secret momentum with the “steak eater” and the musical crowd: a pretty thorough cross-section of the voter pool. The Academy has favored foreign directors lately. Damien Chazelle is the only American winner in the last decade. Perhaps that means Ryusuke Hamaguchi is stronger than he seems. That just leaves Branagh who was never a favorite here, even when Belfast was briefly the Best Picture frontrunner.
(In Order of Likelihood)
Dune
BAFTA - Film Editing – Nominee
Eddie - Drama Film Editing – Nominee
King Richard
Eddie - Drama Film Editing – Winner
Tick, Tick…Boom!
Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Winner
The Power of the Dog
Eddie - Drama Film Editing – Nominee
Don’t Look Up
Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Nominee
I have to work to adjust my understanding of this award. I tend to look at it as an invisible category. The less I think about the editing while watching, the better it is. That’s not how the Academy voters see it. Often, it’s a visceral thing. That’s why Sound and Film Editing often go to the same movie: Hacksaw Ridge (2016), Whiplash (2014), Fury Road (2015), Ford v Ferrari (2019), Sound of Metal (2020). As much as Oscar obsessives like to mock the Bohemian Rhapsody win here in 2018, we forget that so much of that had to do with how perfectly the film recreated the Live Aid performance at the end. And, when all else fails, they’ll often just pick a Best Picture favorite. Did Argo (2012), The Daparted (2006), or Crash (2005) really have the best Film Editing those years, or did people say “I’m not sure how to pick this, so I guess I’ll go with my Best Picture pick”? We’ll never really know.
I like Dune here. It’s a favorite for Sound, which has that strong Film Editing correlation. It’s looking likely to bulldoze through the technical awards. It’s the closest thing to a war movie. And, there may even be some people impressed by how much exposition they were able to sneak into that movie. The Eddie win for King Richard has me reconsidering that for this category in a Bohemian Rhapsody sense. Perhaps they will give credit for recreating Venus Williams’ match against Shaun Stafford. I don’t see it, but I’m not trying to pick what I think should win. Tick, Tick…Boom! has the loudest editing with how it mixes Jonathan Larson’s one man show with his real life. If they get really lazy, they could go with The Power of the Dog as the Best Picture front-runner. It’s not a bad pick either. Just boring. The only one I don’t see is Don’t Look Up. This would be a great place to spread the wealth to Don’t Look Up, but what’s the likelihood of Academy voters knowing to pick Film Editing as the category to rally around for Don’t Look Up? The “Spread the Wealth” theory works best when there are obvious areas to rally around. For example, Ariana DeBose for West Side Story. Or, in the past, look to the Adapted Screenplay Oscar for Blackkklansman.
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