It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Introduction & International Feature
Glossary
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe – Award Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
(In Order of Likelihood)
“Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
Golden Globe - Original Score – Nominee
“No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
Golden Globe - Original Score – Winner
“Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days)
“Down to Joy” (Belfast)
Golden Globe - Original Score – Nominee
“Be Alive” (King Richard)
Golden Globe - Original Score – Nominee
The Golden Globe is only an occasional indicator of where the Oscar will go. And with the Globes mostly being ignored this year, it’s even less reliable. This does feel like a two-song-race though. Never doubt a Bond song, especially after Spectre’s “Writing’s on the Wall” some how won it in 2015. “No Time To Die” has made the rounds for over a year and has a hot artist singing it. In hindsight, I’m sure Disney would’ve submitted another song from Encanto than “Dos Oruguitas”. “Surface Pressure” and “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” would’ve taken it in a cake-walk. “Dos Oruguitas” still might with the overall success of that soundtrack. That’s why I’m leaning Encanto for the win in a squeaker. The only other nominee that stands a chance is “Somehow You Do”. That is simply because Diane Warren has 13 nominations without a win. I think that’s more of a stat for Oscar obsessives than something the average voter pays attention to. The Belfast and King Richard songs only matter if those films were Best Picture frontrunners and both of those are fading.
(In Order of Likelihood)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
BAFTA - Original Score – Winner
Golden Globe - Original Score – Winner
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
BAFTA - Original Score – Nominee
Golden Globe - Original Score – Nominee
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Brittell)
BAFTA - Original Score – Nominee
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
Golden Globe - Original Score – Nominee
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Golden Globe - Original Score – Nominee
The last 8 times the Globes and BAFTAs agreed on a winner, it also won the Oscar. That’s not an untouchable stat though. The two times it happened before that, the movie didn’t win the Oscar. One of those was 2005, when Memoirs for a Geisha took the precursors then lost to Brokeback Mountain. And this won’t be the first time I make the easy Power of the Dog/Brokeback Mountain comparison. That’s not enough to get me off Dune. Hans Zimmer is a former winner (The Lion King, 1994) in a branch that tends to see familiar names come back again and again. With Dune as a likely winner in several tech categories, Original Score makes sense too. But, several of the other nominees are guys waiting for that first win after a handful of nominations. Jonny Greenwood has watched Trent Reznor become an Oscar staple even though his work has been just as praised. If The Power of the Dog really is the front-runner, why not Greenwood here? Then there’s Nicholas Brittell. His third nomination, including a loss for Moonlight’s score. If Oscar voters choose to spread the wealth, his name could come up a lot. Alberto Iglesias has 4 nominations without a win, but Parallel Mothers just doesn’t have the juice. Finally, while Oscar voters are very lazy, Score and Song/Sountrack don’t have much overlap. Germain Franco’s work is good, and it’s nice to have a woman in the field instead of the same pool of 10 guys every year. Encanto isn’t the film to get a win though.
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