It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Introduction & International Feature
Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling
Glossary
Annie - Awards for Animation
Eddie - American Cinema Editors Award
PGA - Producers Guild of America Award
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association Award
DGA - Director's Guild of America
(In Order of Likelihood)
Encanto
Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee
PGA - Animated Feature - Winner
BAFTA - Animated Feature - Winner
Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Winner
Eddie - Edited Animated Feature – Winner
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Annie - Animated Feature - Winner
PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee
BAFTA - Animated Feature - Nominee
Eddie - Edited Animated Feature – Nominee
Flee
BAFTA - Animated Feature - Nominee
Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee
Luca
Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee
PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee
BAFTA - Animated Feature - Nominee
Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee
Raya and the Last Dragon
Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee
PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee
Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee
Eddie - Edited Animated Feature – Nominee
Every year there’s a “Disney Spoiler” that a lot of people who think about this stuff too long talk themselves into believing can win it. Wolkwalkers (2020). Klaus (2019). Kubo and the Two Strings (2016). Anomalisa (2015). The LEGO Movie (2014). The Wind Rises (2013). Paranorman (2012). The only time it has worked in the last 10+ years was Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (2018). And for Spider-Verse to do it, it had to win every single precursor award that season. For that reason, I don’t take The Mitchells vs. the Machines seriously. The only reason to worry about Encanto’s chances at all is because Disney has three nominees in the field. The only other time that happened was 2012, when Brave managed to win despite Frankenweenie and Wreck-It Ralph hanging around. Also, no film has ever won 4 of the precursor awards and failed to win the Oscar. They are 9/9.
As I’ve said or will say two other times, I’m afraid Flee’s trio of nominations will do it more harm than good. Of its three nominations, this is the one I’m most OK with it not standing a real chance in. The animation is a necessary feature of the film, but it’s not the greatest animation you’re going to find. It’s a doc first and animated second. It’s not winning, no matter how cool a win would be. I don’t have to say much about Luca or Raya. Everyone has agreed on Encanto being the supported Disney film.
(In Order of Likelihood)
Summer of Soul
Eddie - Edited Documentary Feature - Winner
DGA - Directed Documentary – Nominee
PGA -Documentary Feature - Winner
BAFTA - Documentary Feature – Winner
Flee
Eddie - Edited Documentary Feature - Nominee
PGA -Documentary Feature - Nominee
BAFTA - Documentary Feature – Nominee
Attica
DGA - Directed Documentary – Winner
Ascension
DGA - Directed Documentary – Nominee
PGA -Documentary Feature - Nominee
Writing with Fire
PGA -Documentary Feature - Nominee
I could point to the fact the no doc has won 3 of the 4 main precursor awards and lost the Oscar. It’s 6/6 since 2009*. However, with Documentary Feature, it’s better to pick by feel. To get Oscar voters to watch a documentary, they need to feel something. That’s why music docs do so well (Amy – 2015, Twenty Feet From Stardom – 2013, Searching for Sugarman – 2012). If not that, when they can recognize something from the news, that’s a plus (American Factory – 2019, Icarus – 2017, OJ: Made in America – 2016, Citizenfour – 2014). The latest exceptions are My Octopus Teacher (2020) and Free Solo (2018). Both of those were crowdpleasers. Summer of Soul is the best combination of all these things this year. It addresses race while also being a lot of fun with the concert footage. It’s a crowdpleaser that makes you think, which is a weapon in the Documentary Feature category.
*The BAFTA award has only been around since 2011 and the PGA since 2007. The precursor history isn’t all that rich here.
Flee is a paper tiger, I’m afraid. Not because it’s bad. In fact, it’s one of my favorite movies of the year. What I mean is that the absolutely unique triple nomination looks formidable. However, it splits the vote. Some will want it to win in Animated Feature to take down Disney. Others will want to award it in International Feature since the other big nominees there have other major nods. And there are other directions to go in Documentary Feature. Support hasn’t coalesced around any one nomination for Flee, sadly. Documentary is its best chance, I’d say. Summer of Soul is a much easier movie though. Attica is too much of a bummer. Ascension is a little too esoteric from my understanding. Writing With Fire I really liked but it’s a little dull and has the language barrier.
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