DVR Purge: 2/27

This whole "writing these at work" thing is making these far less of a self-imposed chore than trying to write them as I watch or taking of time from my day. Here's Wednesday, all by itself.

 
The Middle "Wheel of Pain"
The plot itself was pretty well-tread territory, offering little that was new. What made it enjoyable for me was when Frankie speaking for Mike about giving back Sue's party. I found that incredibly funny, which is a testament to how well we know these characters because it only works because of how well we know Mike specifically and Neil Flynn

Modern Family "Best Men"
Let's start with the little bit of the episode I didn't like. Manny's crushes are getting a little overplayed. The gag with all the nudes was a really watered down version of the Superbad dick lunchbox joke and didn't have nearly the punch it needed.
Otherwise, I was pretty pleased with the episode.
Cam and Mitchell were actually bound together in this one instead of bickering and sniping (ok, less of that than normal) which is all I ask for. Then, they cap that story of with that hilarious tag with Lilly and Sal at the end.
I am also so pleased by the handling of Phil trying to clear up the misunderstanding with the girl's mom. It still had a wacky series of sitcom-written verbal hiccups, but it at least had him aware enough from the beginning to try and put the kibosh on it. And, I enjoyed how quickly ignored Luke claiming he was hiding porn was ignored. It was a nice touch.
Lastly, I've noticed that Haley becoming Claire is becoming a highly potent story angle. The first three seasons were all about hinting at how Claire was so much like Haley when she was that age. Now, it's coming full circle with Haley becoming more like Claire. Love it!

Suburgatory "Leaving Chatswin"
I think I was supposed to feel more strongly with the strory about George and Noah tracking down the dead guy's (I've already forgotten the name already) backstory. I think with it being a comedy, they didn't play the scene with the waitress more dramatic and pouring his ashes directly outside of Chatswin was just lazy.
On the Tessa side, I'm not sure what all that was supposed to amount to. So, her and Ryan are going in different directions. College is coming up soon (is she a junior or a senior?). Beyond "false alarms. They are still a happy couple", I don't know what the point of it all was.

Nashville "Dear Brother"
I generally play coy, so I'll say it. I liked this episode.
Except for Avery, all the stories intersected but had their own arc. Rayna is dealing with the public fervor over her divorce (although I don't buy that she was rarely followed by the media before this). The return of Teddy, Lamar, Coleman, and the political angle wasn't shoved down our throats (although I'm tired of the "hire the guy you ran against" trope). Juliette finally showed a little humanity toward her movie (I get that she feels betrayed and all, but Juliette's character needed to be softened a little pretty badly). Gunnar got a pretty good running gag about watching Old Yellar that ended with a puppy (always a win in my book). I didn't see Gunnar's brother dying coming at all and that hit me as hard as anything in the show (a low bar, but still). Him and Scarlett hooking up has been predestined but I'm glad it happened now because they were escalating everything about it too much (roommates, bandmates, coworkers. At some point, it's pointless to write around them getting together in some fashion). Even Avery was well used in that he barely was and this purgatory the show has him in is slowly (and I mean ever so slowly) getting me to feel for him.

The Americans "Comint"
This show has me hooked. The spy stuff is fun and tense and sexy which is great for the promos. I was legitimately worried for Elizabeth both sneaking into the other car and getting out of the FBI location (and I really loved how casually they played her getting out and Phillip not being concerned about if she'd be able to get out). But, the show also has the great human moments like Stan and his wife's talk when he is trying to learn Russian and Phillip's anger at what the asset did to his wife. Best of all, they don't feel the need to give the kids more than a few lines if the story doesn't call for it. My only reservation is that I'm surprised how much the Jennings' and Stan's investigations are crossing paths because it's easy for a show to stumble somewhere (also because it makes both organizations seem really small), but everything else in the show is being handled so well that I'm willing to assume the writers know what they're doing.


The Point of the Purge
Past Purges:
2/22-2/26         

2/5-2/8             2/9-2/11            2/12-2/18        2/19-2/20          2/21

1/17-1/18         1/19-1/21          1/22-1/23         1/24-1/29         1/30-2/4

12/16               12/17-12/21      ...12/22-1/7      1/8-1/9             1/10-1/16

11/25-11/28     11/29-11/30      12/1-12/5         12/6-12/8          12/9-12/15

10/28-11/3       11/4-11/10        11/11-11/16     11/17-11/20      11/21-11/24

9/22-9/28         9/29-10/4          10/6-10/12       10/13-10/19     10/20-10/27

85th Academy Awards Postmortem

I did alright. My will win or could win was right in almost every category. Granted, having a "could win" is a cheat, and for how many movies I'd seen, studying I'd done, and experts I'd read, you'd think I would've done better than a casual movie watcher who got a little lucky.

Best Picture  - Argo [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Best Animated Feature - Brave [COULD WIN]
Best Foreign Language Film - Amour [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Best Documentary – Feature - Searching for Sugar Man [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Best Actor  - Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) [WILL WIN]
Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) [COULD WIN]
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Best Writing – Original Screenplay - Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino) [COULD WIN]
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay - Argo (Chris Terrio) [WILL WIN]
Best Live Action Short Film - Curfew
Best Documentary – Short Subject - Inocente
Best Animated Short Film - Paperman [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Best Original Score - Life of Pi [WILL WIN]
Best Original Song - "Skyfall" (Skyfall) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Best Sound Editing - Skyfall [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN] & Zero Dark Thirty [WILL WIN]
Best Sound Mixing - Les Misérables[WILL WIN]
Best Director - Ang Lee (Life of Pi) [COULD WIN]
Best Production Design - Lincoln
Best Cinematography - Life of Pi [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Les Misérables [WILL WIN]
Best Costume Design - Anna Karenina [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Best Film Editing - Argo [COULD WIN]
Best Visual Effects - Life of Pi [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]

To recap, I got 14 of 22 (2 abstains) correct for will win, 7 could wins (combined 21/22 for could or will), and surprisingly, 11 should wins.

 Liked:
-Most of the acting wins. It's great to see Anne Hathaway get her win if only because it gets that monkey off her back. Louisville's own Jennifer Lawrence has a statue and handled the whole awards season like a champ. It was even nice to see Daniel Day-Lewis get into the three win club.
-Life of Pi got some tech love but not too much. Ang Lee's movie is a technical marvel, but at the same time, I feared that it would, like Hugo last year, become the de facto winner of all the awards that most people don't care about. Thankfully, it got Cinematography, Visual Effects, Score, and Director but stopped there.
-Skyfall got some love. True, it was all in song and sound, but this is the kind of movie that normally gets a couple nominations and no one actually votes to have it win anything.

Disliked:
-Brave winning best animated feature. I'm a fan of Pixar and all but it's starting to be a lazy man's choice to win. Wreck It Ralph and ParaNorman were both superior movies and I haven't seen Frankenweenie, but I hear that it makes a stronger case too,
-The Django wins. Not that I have some strong feelings about it and I suppose I like spreading the wealth like this, but other than being filled with lines that you know the actors loved delivering, I don't see how the screenplay stacked up against the competition, most notably, Amour. Also, Christoph Waltz was great and all, but we've seen this performance before in his last Taratino movie and I'd've picked anyone in the field to win instead.
-Anna Karenina not getting the win for production design. Lincoln wasn't a horrible choice, but I certainly think Anna Karenina was 90% artistic direction, so I don't get how it lost.

I am so glad the awards season is finally over though. As always, it's been too long, too predictable, and this year we can even add too political to the mix. Time to get back to watching movies for better reasons like "there's nothing else in theaters" and "well, it's made a lot of movie".

DVR Purge 2/22-2/26

I must say, this was not the most inspiring batch of episodes. Perhaps Wednesday and Thursday will bring better things. They generally do.

 
The Walking Dead "I Ain't Judas"
I simply don't understand how they lost the outer gate to the walkers. The governor let maybe a dozen of them into the field and broke one hole in the perimeter. How is that enough to be overrun? And, why aren't they just systematically killing the ones at the gate? That seems literally like the least they could do. Don't even have to waste bullets.
For a show that seems to realize how much it depends on the action to keep things interesting, I'm a little surprised that that jumped ahead from where we left off last week.

Shameless "Cascading Failures"I like this episode more in concept than execution and this is definitely where I enjoy this show so I'm forgiving of it all but will admit that the issues are there.
-Fiona had some great individual scenes. I'm happy that she quit her job. That story never interested me much.
-It seems fitting that Lip would quickly have the run of the misplaced youths home.
-I'm not sure what the point of Ian's story was. We aren't learning anything new about Mickey other than that he is into so experimentation.
-Poor Debbie. She really is the beating heart of this show. Thankfully, she's proven too valuable to face the foster mother's wrath.
-Simply put, putting Carl with a TV gay couple is mean in a way that I only don't mind  in the context of this show.
Outside the Gallagher's, Kevin and V were as warped as ever and Sheila playing Monica was probably the best thing of the episode.

House of Lies "Family Values"
I liked this more than most episodes. In general, I like it more when they are at play than at work, when they aren't trying to work a client. It feels good to have Clyde put in his place and to have a reminder that Doug is actually highly accomplished.

California "In the Clouds"
A bottle episode for the most part, I'd say this was the first successful batshit insane episode yet (Rock funeral being the closest competitor). Discussing things in terms of character growth and meaning is pointless, so I won't. This was completely out of control and, oddly, that seems to be when the show and cast is most comfortable.

How I Met Your Mother "Weekend at Barney's"
I think I figured it out. The moment when my feelings changed on this show: Ted's 30th birthday. The was the moment that I realized the payoff for any foreboding story was going to disappoint. In the early days, all they did is open new stories and excite me about what they mean. The goat was the biggest one and when I saw what happened on his 30th birthday, I was underwhelmed. Almost every payoff since has been lacking.
...which leaves me to this episode. The story behind Ted announcing that he is finally ready to settle down, ended, as expected, because Jeanette flipped out. You know, exactly like she has every time she has been on screen. Destroying the red boots was a nice touch. Then, there's Marshall's last bag of Skittles ever. Why? It's not like they lay on the Grandma stuff so thick that it was cutting any tension and I believe this story ended pretty well, especially considering that it was his conversation that got Lily to meet the artist. That whole thing was hyperbole for hyperbole's sake.
On an unrelated note, am I the only one who found Barney's speech to Robin incredibly skeevy? It's cool that he knows magic, but that masked a pretty insanely douchy speech.

Go On "Ring and a Miss"
Does this mean the last of Piper Perabo? I hope so. She has been a distraction. If now, oh well.
-I like the idea of secret meeting amongst the group.
-Mr. K could potentially be really funny as the odd man out. An episode like this, with his Mary Poppins delusions remind me that he actually belongs in a mental hospital. The "which one of you didn't believe?" line was a good capper to it though.
-This late into the season, I'm worried by the complete lack of balance in it all. Rather than each character getting his/her due, any time they do an episode focusing on one of the characters other than Ryan it feels like a makeup call for forgetting them, not a natural rotation.

New Girl "Tinfinity"
Simply put, I wasn't a big fan of this week's episode and I don't know why. It had the seldom used but always fun Jess vs. Winston pairing, Nick and Schmidt flashbacks, and more Robby. Still, I couldn't get all the way into it. A lot of setting up things to come with Jess obsessing over Nick's mouth and Cece's engagement and I feel like I'm supposed to respond more strongly to these than relative indifference. Let me be clear, however, I didn't hate the episode, I simply, didn't particularly like it.

The Mindy Project "The One That Got Away"
I get the feeling that this is a doomed series but has gone through all the needed bumps to make Mindy a stronger showrunner in the future. This episode was perfectly fine, charming, and at times funny, but it doesn't seem to fit in an overall larger narrative/arc nor have the characters all be strongly defined enough to seem sufficiently self-contained. I like so many individual things about the show, but it is rarely coming together completely.

Cougar Town "You And I Will Meet Again"
This struck me as manufactured drama. I could see Wade moving in with Laurie turning out to be something that sets Travis over the edge. That makes sense. What doesn't make sense is that that everyone becomes concerned at this step. This specific thing, not them getting married or Wade coming back was assumed to be the break point. It doesn't make any sense to me. Why are people not concerned every step of the way given his proclivity to fly off the handle?
-Between Community and Cougar town, I'm just going to have to let go of the vanishing age differences that happen. It annoys me slightly, when they realize the 30 year old actor doesn't comfortably play 20 anymore and they opt to ignore ever giving them a sense of age again.


The Point of the Purge
Past Purges:
2/5-2/8   |   2/9-2/11   |   2/12-2/18   |  2/19-2/20   |   2/21

1/17-1/18   |   1/19-1/21   |   1/22-1/23   |   1/24-1/29   |   1/30-2/4

12/16   |   12/17-12/21   |   ...12/22-1/7   |   1/8-1/9   |   1/10-1/16

11/25-11/28   |   11/29-11/30   |   12/1-12/5   |   12/6-12/8   |   12/9-12/15

10/28-11/3   |   11/4-11/10   |   11/11-11/16   |   11/17-11/20   |   11/21-11/24

9/22-9/28   |   9/29-10/4   |   10/6-10/12   |    10/13-10/19   |   10/20-10/27

Movie Reaction: Side Effects

Formula: Love and Other Drugs + Murder

Why I Saw This: There is absolutely nothing out that I haven't seen and want to, so I opted for this one even though it's been out for a while.

Cast: The leads are Rooney Mara and Jude Law. Catherine Zeta Jones is the next most prominent. Channing Tatum is in a pretty small role, all things considered. Law reminded me of a less crazy version of his Contagion character. Mara I spent half the time thinking how different she looked than in Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Jones is, better than she was in, say, Rock of Ages, but that sounds more damning than it's meant to. Tatum could've been played by absolutely anyone. It was odd to see him as a business man, much like Vin Diesel in Boiler Room.

Plot: I can't really get into it too much.  Mara's character is depressed and her husband is getting out of jail for insider trading. She starts seeing a psychiatrist played by Law and she ends up on trial for killing her husband. That's about as much as the previews give away and that's all I am at liberty to say. Speaking abstractly, I'll say, I think the movie was at its best about 3/4 of the way in and has trouble sticking the landing.

Elephant in the Room: No, really, what is it about? It's tough to talk about it, because the people who will enjoy it the most are the ones who go in as a blank slate. The movie itself is sort of a thriller, I guess. It has layers and changes what it is about a few times. It's fun to watch it all unfold.

To Sum Things Up:
I was really entertained from start to finish. I recommend it to anyone who is even considering seeing it. The danger here is building it up too much, because it will disappoint under those circumstances, I'm glad I say it and I think that anyone who turns on USA a couple years one day and finds it on will be pleasantly surprised,

Side Note: I half-assed writing this one because 1) the Oscars were about to come on and 2) this is almost out of theaters.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

85th Academy Awards Oscar Picks

Time for some Oscar guessing. Well educated guessing, but still a guess when it all comes down to it. Based on last year, I'm not so good at these unless they are really obvious picks, so this exercise ends up being more of a method for me to reflect on the movies rather than actually make correct picks.

If you don't count documentaries, shorts and foreign categories, I've seen all but 5 of the nominees for this year's ceremony. That hardly makes me an expert at this, but I certainly feel more familiar with this year than in years past.
I normally like doing winner, dark horse, and my personal favorite, which I'm still doing, except I'll be doing the standard Will Win, Could Win, and Should Win.

Any nominee that I've seen is in italics

FEATURE

Best Picture
See here for my full explanation.
Amour
Argo [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln [COULD WIN]
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Animated Feature
Brave [COULD WIN] - Not Pixar's best, but a return to form after Cars 2.

Frankenweenie - Haven't heard a bad thing about it other than no one seeing it.
ParaNorman [SHOULD WIN] - A very pleasant surprise when I saw it.

The Pirates! Band of Misfits - Didn't see it. No desire to. It looks awful.
Wreck-It Ralph [WILL WIN] - Critical and popular darling. This looks like a heavy favorite.


Best Foreign Language Film
Amour [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] It was nominated for best picture. Transitive property dictates it's going to win, and it should. Kon-Tiki - The name scares me. That's all I know about it.

No - I saw a preview for this and it looked pretty good.
A Royal Affair [COULD WIN] - I assume this category goes to name recognition and this is the one I recognize more after Amour.

War Witch - I like the title, but that's all I know about it. I'm admittedly ignorant in this category.

Best Documentary – Feature
5 Broken Cameras - I....
The Gatekeepers - ...Don't...

How to Survive a Plague - ...Know.

The Invisible War [COULD WIN] - Once again, name recognition dictates my pick here. Sorry.

Searching for Sugar Man [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - I know at least one person who saw this and quite liked it. In my book, that does a front runner make.

ACTING

Best Actor 
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) - When I think of this movie, it takes a while for me to think, "Boy, Bradley Cooper was good in that" which is a shame, but the truth.
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) [WILL WIN] - Easiest pick of the night, right?
Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables) - There were some better choices here. And, as Le Mis' profile fades, so do Jackman's chances.

Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) [SHOULD WIN] - I wasn't even a fan of the movie, but in a year that didn't have The Daniel Day-Lewis playing a beloved president in a box office hit, Phoenix would be in the thick of this race.

Denzel Washington (Flight) [COULD WIN] - The fact that he carries the entire movie could be enough to pull an upset (Hint: It isn't).


Best Actress
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) - I thought she'd be more of a player this late but there was some harsh and unjustified backlash at this movie that took her down with it.
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - She was the highlight of this movie and seems to have everyone on her side still. And, hey, she beat Meryl.

Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) [COULD WIN] - If ever there was a dark horse, it's Riva. She is damn good in this and seems to be mentioned more and more these days. I'd have no issue with her winning.

Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) - The nomination will have to be enough which is still really fucking impressive.

Naomi Watts (The Impossible) - This movie was unfairly looked over. I'm glad she at least was noticed for her work in it.


Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Argo) - I don't really see what so many people loved about him in this. It felt like a bit part to me (albeit a good one).
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) [SHOULD WIN] - He was my favorite of this bunch so I'd be good with this as a sort of make-up call like Streep got last year.

Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) - My only issue is that I'd call this a lead performance so it seems unfair to be here.

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) [WILL WIN] - Lincoln was nothing if not an actors showcase and his was one of the showiest. Personally, I couldn't not see this as Jones playing a character, which I seem to be in the minority on.

Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) [COULD WIN] - He won three years ago for the same role. This was less flashy, but I could see people voting for him again. Oh, and I also see him as a lead, but whatever.


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Master) - She was good and I'm sad that the only things she's been collecting are nominations, but this isn't her year either.

Sally Field (Lincoln) [COULD WIN] - They like her, they really like her. Technically, she's never lost.
Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - She was my favorite part of the movie and I'm ok with her winning because of "I Dreamed a Dream".
Helen Hunt (The Sessions) - Happy to be nominated. Nothing more.

Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) - The only way she's winning is if Silver Linings Playbook wins big.

WRITING

Best Writing – Original Screenplay
Amour (Michael Haneke) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - I had issues with all the other scripts here, so this is my de facto pick and I think that's how it will be for the Academy.

Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino) [COULD WIN] - Tarantino's only win was for the Pulp Fiction screenplay so a win here isn't unprecedented.

Flight (John Gatins) - Personally, I thought the script was sort of a mess, held together by the acting.

Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola) - Has the Academy ever really like Anderson here? It was a nice little screenplay, but I think it will be too weird to win.

Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal) - I credit them for making this story more interesting than it really was.


Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay
Argo (Chris Terrio) [WILL WIN] - Honestly, I think the story was pretty slight, but if Argo is really the front-runner for best picture, it almost has to win here.

Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin) - Any nomination for this movie is a win for them. I don't see anywhere for them to get an actual win though.

Life of Pi (David Magee) [SHOULD WIN] - An "unfilmable"story made into a good movie has to be somewhat credited to a good screenplay, but I haven't heard anyone credit that.

Lincoln (Tony Kushner) [COULD WIN] - A collection of good speeches are good speeches nonetheless. I see more credit going to the actors than the words they are saying.

Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell) - I thought the end was sloppy and most of that was in the writing.

SHORT

Honestly, I know little about any of these, so I can't even pretend to have an opinion.

Best Live Action Short Film
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow (Dood Van Een Schaduw)
Henry

Best Documentary – Short Subject
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

Best Animated Short Film 
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
The Longest Daycare
Paperman [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - I assume that if Disney puts a short before a movie that it is probably the favorite, and having seen it, I can't complain. This was a sweet short.

SOUND 

 Best Original Score 
Anna Karenina - I think the clothing and production was too loud for me to even hear a score.

Argo - There's a chance this wins because of overall Argo love but that would be the only reason.

Life of Pi [WILL WIN] - If the Artist taught me anything, it's that the less dialogue, the more awarded the score.

Lincoln [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - People claim this has a lot of self-plagiarizing, but my stance is, if it works, it works, and this is vintage John Williams.
Skyfall - Unless people think the score is Adele playing on a loop, I don't see anyone crediting this.


Best Original Song
"Before My Time" (Chasing Ice) - Never heard of it.

"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" (Ted) - If "Blame Canada" couldn't win, I don't see this doing so either.

"Pi's Lullaby" (Life of Pi) - Eh. Not for me.
"Skyfall" (Skyfall) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - Somewhere, there is a stone tablet with 10 rules. I believe the first one is "Adele cannot lose".

"Suddenly" (Les Misérables) [COULD WIN] - I have a hard time doubting a musical's ability to win for best song.


Best Sound Editing
Argo - I won't have an educated pick here. I admit this. Argo could win due to the front-runner effect, but I can't say I was impressed by the sound editing (as I understand it) in this.

Django Unchained - The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking this could pull off a win here. It did sound good.

Life of Pi - This could be this year's Hugo with the tech. awards. I doubt it though.

Skyfall [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - I assume any action movie with polish has an advantage here.  The polish over other movies of its ilk is why it has my pick.

Zero Dark Thirty [WILL WIN] - The infiltration of the Osama facility is enough of an attention grabber, I suspect.


Best Sound Mixing
Argo - I mean, if it's the front-runner, people may vote for it for a lot of stupid things.

Les Misérables[WILL WIN] - I think a lot of people will assume that the mixing of music into the scenes will be enough for a win.

Life of Pi [COULD WIN] - Once again, I could see this being this year's Hugo.

Lincoln - I'm not all that sure why this is here. The score never over powered things, I guess.

Skyfall [SHOULD WIN] - I like that Skyfall got here. It'd be cool if it went all the way.

OTHER

Best Director
Michael Haneke (Amour) [SHOULD WIN] - I credit Haneke for his restraint which made everything that much more effective.

Ang Lee (Life of Pi) [COULD WIN] - He did a very impressive job with this one.

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) - I can't say I was "wowed" by what he did here.

Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) [WILL WIN] - As soon as my picks (Bigelow and Affleck) weren't nominated, this one looked gift wrapped  for Spielberg.

Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) - Something tells me this won't be his last.


Best Production Design
Anna Karenina [SHOULD WIN] - This is the only movie I saw and immediately said "this will be nominated for production design".

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [WILL WIN] - I imagine some Lord of the Rings love will carry over. Perhaps they will feel its time has passed.
Les Misérables - The design was nice but it sure felt limited. That's probably the wrong way to look at it though.

Life of Pi [COULD WIN] - I think the "it's pretty" factor won't translate here, but maybe I'm wrong.

Lincoln - It did look good.


Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina - Production Design, yes. Cinematography, not so much.

Django Unchained - Really? This? It has a distinctive look, but I don't see it.

Life of Pi [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - This movie was pretty gorgeous and I think everyone appreciates that.

Lincoln [COULD WIN] - I liked the look of this too.

Skyfall - I'm happy to see this get some nominations. I don't see it winning any of the big ones.


Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock - I remember when this was considered a potential Oscar juggernaut. That was misguided.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - There were a lot of costumes.

Les Misérables [WILL WIN] - I have no reason to think this will win other than because I think it will.


Best Costume Design 
Anna Karenina [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN]- I liked these costumes the best.

Les Misérables [WILL WIN] I liked these costumes the second best, but I think it will get more Academy love.

Lincoln - While authentic, I don't think the costuming demanded attention from the voters which will hurt it.
Mirror Mirror - Look, I found this to be a very colorful movie and have a very unique look. I don't think it will matter though.

Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Film Editing
Argo [COULD WIN] I was really close to switching this to will win status. I think this is one of those cases where the fact that it will win big could carry it to a win here.

Life of Pi - I don't see all the expected tech love to carry over to here.

Lincoln - This really wasn't an edit heavy movie as far as I can tell.

Silver Linings Playbook - This is when I admit to you that I don't really know what editing is all about more than a cursory understanding. I can't say I understand this nomination though.

Zero Dark Thirty [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] -I think the end sequence alone should give it the win here, but in general, this was a pretty well edited film and I think it's showy enough to win.


Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [COULD WIN] - I mean, if this wasn't locked up, I'd say The Hobbit at least stands a chance, but it doesn't because it is locked up.

Life of Pi [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - ...and deservedly so. The effects in this movie being so good is one of the primary reasons that none of the acting (what little there was) is nominated.

Marvel's The Avengers - Hey, it got a nomination. Good for it. This is certainly a nomination that it deserved.

Prometheus - Again, glad to see it get at least one nomination and it deserves this one.

Snow White and the Huntsman - Wait. What? How did this get in here? Was it all because of the Queen's bath scene? If so, I'll allow it.


Fuck, I'm long winded. I sure do love to post my opinions. If you got through this all, you may need another hobby (if you find one, let me know. I'm in need of a few).
Regardless, there you go. I can already guarantee that my picks won't be much more accurate than the average movie-goer. If I do pick these well, you better believe my next post will be very self-congratulatory. In the case which  I'm not so right, you better believe I will underplay all this.

2013 Best Picture Examination

Agro will win.

Ok. Now that's over with. I don't have to pretend like it's a race or something. Barring some strange upset, Argo will win. It's virtually swept all the precursor awards (BAFTAs, Critics, Guilds). I'm pretty bored by now looking at this like a question. But, like I did last year, and as I've done in depth for the years before that, I want to look at how credentialed the best picture nominees are.

Last year, The Artist was the obvious winner no matter how you looked at it. This year is a bit less obvious.

FACT: Directing, Acting, Screenplay, and Editing. It's safe to say that a movie needs at least three of those to win.
Going back 78 years to the first year that Editing was a category (before that, things were a little screwy) it has only happened once that the winner had any less than three of them (Hamlet in 1949, by the way, which probably missed out because adapted screenplay wasn't a category. Last year, this criteria narrowed the list of reasonable picks down to 4 movies. This year, is only narrows it to 7.

Once again, Argo will win, so let's look at some numbers and start handicapping from most to least likely to win.

First, let's look back 78 years and see which of the big four categories the eventual winner had at least one nomination in.

Years	Directing	Acting	Screenplay	Editing
2001-2011	11/11	9/11	11/11	11/11
1991-2000	21/21	18/21	20/21	21/21
1981-1990	30/31	27/31	30/31	31/31
1971-1980	40/41	37/41	40/41	38/41
1961-1970	50/51	47/51	49/51	45/51
1951-1960	60/61	53/61	59/61	54/61
1941-1950	70/71	63/71	67/71	63/71
1934-1940	77/78	70/78	74/78	68/78

The fact that Argo will win already discredits there's numbers since it will be the second movie in almost 80 years to win without the Directing nomination, but humor me. Based on these numbers, the importance of the nominations from most to least is Directing, Screenplay, Acting, and Editing (although Editing has been the most recently reliable (See: 30 year streak).

Now, here is the nominee breakdown:

	Directing	Acting	Screenplay	Editing
Amour	X	X	X
Argo		X	X	X
Beasts of the Southern Wild	X	X	X
Django Unchained		X	X
Les Miserables		X		X
Life of Pi	X		X	X
Lincoln	X	X	X	X
Silver Livings Playbook	X	X	X	X
Zero Dark Thirty		X	X	X

First Two Cuts:

Les Misérables
Only has two nominations in the two least important categories.

Django Unchained
The only other nominee with less than three of the nearly required four nominations.

That means that seven others looked to be serious players on nomination day. That's pretty impressive parity which is why this has been a fun Oscar season in my book.

Next cuts:

Zero Dark Thirty
The nomination it is missing is the [normally] all-important directing field.

Now, this is where I would normally eliminate Argo for the same reason, but Fuck the statistics.

Amour
No Foreign movie has even won best picture. It's sort of an embarrassing fact but it's true nonetheless.

Beasts of the Southern Wild
It lack an Editing nomination. These days, that's the kiss of death.

Here's where I have to start getting creative.

Silver Linings Playbook
It's a comedy. I haven't broke down the numbers, but comedies don't or rarely win. The shocking thing is just how much love it's gotten so far.

Life of Pi
True, Silver Lining Playbook had acting nominations that Pi lacks, but I'm looking at it from a 2003m Return of the King prism. When a movie rack up so many technical nominations, it means that no matter how good the acting, the cinematography outshines it.
Or, we could look to Slumdog Millionaire and say that the Academy is scared of Indian people.

That means the runner up in my judgment is...

Lincoln
Box office + Powerhouse acting + Directing nomination + Screenplay and Editing to boot + a ton of other nominations = a movie that has every reason to win.

But, of course, because reason plays no part in this, the winner will be...

...wait for it...

Argo fuck yourself!

The only thing that makes sense is that people like the movie but hate Ben Affleck and I don't say that as a joke. It got the Editing and Screenplay nominations and looks poised to win them. The sole acting nomination goes to Alan Arkin's limited role. Meanwhile, Affleck the director and only lead goes without personal recognition. It's bizarre, and after this movie wins, I assume Affleck will have a Directing Oscar for a lesser movie in a make-up call, much like Ron Howard (a name heard time and time again this season).

Personally, I don't really care which movie wins. I have no horse in this race. I keep looking for a movie that I like more than the others but can't find one.
I missed the bandwagon for Beasts of the Southern Wild and was not all that impressed.
Amour is a well crafted film, but felt like some blatant "Cry Olympics".
Silver Linings Playbook is a refreshing change of pace from standard romantic comedies, but didn't add much more depth to the genre.
Life of Pi is pretty but I just plain didn't care for the story itself.
Lincoln is a bunch of speeches albeit amazingly delivered speeches.
Les Miserables is an impressive production but drained the hell out of me while watching.
Django Unchained feels a little stale after Tarantino did the same thing with Inglourious Basterds but in a different setting and is needlessly long. You're seriously telling me that movie needed to be three hours long. Really?
Zero Dark Thirty is interesting enough for two hours to get me to the stellar final act and I am absolutely perplexed by Bigelow not being recognized for her direction, but I have a hard time not seeing this movie as completely disregarded in about 5 years.
1,2,3...6,7,8...fuck. I guess that leaves Argo, a perfectly accomplished little movie, that does little to offend while also failing to sit with me for longer than a few minutes after it goes to credits.

I liked all these movies more than I've stated above (except Bests. I really don't get the big deal about that one). I'm just making a point. I didn't love anything here. Had something I love like Looper, for instance, made the cut that'd've been nice. As is, indifference and I suppose joy that nothing I truly disliked (like The Artist last year) made it this far.

DVR Purge 2/21

I think I may have mastered a new method of doing these for faster turnover (Hint: I do them at work). Overall, a pretty weak Thursday propped up entirely by a top 10 Parks & Rec. episode.

The Big Bang Theory "The Monster Isolation"
I have to give Kunal Nayyar props for being willing to play without an ounce of dignity. I'm curious to see how long they keep Kate Micucci around, especially if they plan to maintain his inability to talk to women without alcohol, which, let's be honest, is a gag that has run its course.

Community "Conventions of Space and Time"
Good lord, I hate it, but I'm one of those "it's just not the same" people. I'm ok with it not being the same as long as they try to change it something that the current writers are more proficient at. I assume the faux-Harmon thing is something they had to get out of their system. As for the specific episode though...
1) The opening tag with Britta pretending to not be in Troy's room was really caper-y, especially since the resolution is that he's known all along and the only reason he is admitting to this now (since it's the end of his donut connection) is because the cameras are on him this time.
2) The convention seemed pretty tame, all things considered.
3) They aren't even being coy about the Jeff/Annie coupling anymore. I've never been a big fan of those two no matter how much they try to make us forget their ages, but I hoped it would be a little more subtle.
4) I like the American Inspector Spacetime. It makes me wonder what American Dr. Who would look like.

Parks & Recreation "Leslie and Ben"
A nearly flawless P&R outing. My favorite touch was how Ann was so completely prepared for all of this. It was incredibly fitting when I thought about it. Had this been the final episode of the show (as it was produced to potentially be) I'd've had no complaints.

Parks & Recreation "Correspondent's Lunch"
Given how finale-ee the previous episode was, this was almost like a weird reboot episode and took some time to get its footing. Still enjoyable, but a sort of steep drop from the previous half-hour. I can't wait to see more of Ben and Andy as office-mates.

Archer "Once Bitten"
This was a pretty odd episode, that I did quite like. Archer's hallucinatory Christmas Carol was odd, but interesting character development for a show not often concerned with that.
Have they always relied so heavily on ending one scene with a question and beginning the next scene with an answer? If so, I never noticed it as much as in this episode which was the switch between bascially every seen. Good, detailed writing.

Legit "Family"
Ok. I think I'm back on board. I randomly deciding to give this episode a try and I really liked it. It's sort of Wilfred without the dog. The speech about why it's fine to laugh about things instead of getting mad was one of the best dissections of that I've heard and the award for my most uncontrollable laugh of the night goes to the end when the kid stole his joke. The indignation on Jefferies' face mixed with the tension cutting timing of it was superb.


The Point of the Purge
Past Purges:
2/5-2/8   |   2/9-2/11   |   2/12-2/18   |  2/19-2/20   |  

1/17-1/18   |   1/19-1/21   |   1/22-1/23   |   1/24-1/29   |   1/30-2/4

12/16   |   12/17-12/21   |   ...12/22-1/7   |   1/8-1/9   |   1/10-1/16

11/25-11/28   |   11/29-11/30   |   12/1-12/5   |   12/6-12/8   |   12/9-12/15

10/28-11/3   |   11/4-11/10   |   11/11-11/16   |   11/17-11/20   |   11/21-11/24

9/22-9/28   |   9/29-10/4   |   10/6-10/12   |    10/13-10/19   |   10/20-10/27

DVR Purge: 2/19-2/20

Fitting this one in just under the wire before I feel obliged to add thoughts on Thursday shows.

Go On "Go Deep"
Piper Perabo, please go away. I'm really bored by this character and there's too big of a cast to need her around. Additionally, I get the desire to keep this vaguely sports themed but enough with the T.O.s and Shawn Whites showing up to steal screen time. This much reliance on guest actors suggests a lack of depth to any of the regular characters, which, you know, could be remedied by giving them more to do.

New Girl "Parking Spot"
I guess I respect that they are dealing with the kiss head on for this long and trying to give it a proper grave. At the same time, no part of me believes all this setup isn't leading to something bigger by season's end. I still find it funny how Winston seems to be on his own show (and a little bummed how little Brenda Song we got).

The Mindy Project "Mindy's Minute"
Again, not my favorite episode, but it feels more like a fully formed show and the name of the game is "season 2" so consistency in tone is a good start. Danny's minute was quite funny, as was the sock puppet getting back at him via Mindy. I still question how well they have sold "professional Mindy" and, much like most workplace comedies, it will be much more comfortable when making the job an afterthought.

Cougar Town "Flirting With Time"
I'm a sucker for an origin story. When a show starts at the meet-cute, you don't really know how it will turn out or if you'll even like how it does. The origin story allows for the previously established dynamic (the ways everyone gets along) and use that as a way for all the characters to come together. In other words, it's sort of a cheat, but a fun one. In this case, it was excellently structured around the meet-cute running gag and pretty much all of the meets felt exactly right. Even Jules and Grayson's actual meet-cute took me by surprise (I choose to ignore the "she's a married woman" angle of what it implies).

The Middle "Winners and Losers"
Seriously, they are shitting on Brick again!? This is starting to feel mean. I get that the joke is that they're middle-rate to bad parents, but this is constantly being highlighted with Brick alone. I feel bad for him.

Modern Family "Bad Hair Day"
I think there are some good touches with Luke in terms of bringing out his Phil-ness, this week, with the shoes. It would be nice if they could calibrate his genius a little. The trouble he got to in school makes him seem like his too young, especially when compared to Manny, but then he has the most cunning of all the bribes.
-Speaking of the bribes, that was a funny series  regardless of if everything else sort of fell flat leading up to it.
-Seeing another woman playing her alternate timeline makes me realize how much about Claire I only like because she is played by Julie Bowen.

Suburgatory "T-ball and Sympathy"
A few surprising choices this week:
1. After weeks of Shay dominance, there was little or none of them except for some excellent support work by Lisa.
2. I really didn't expect Chef Alan to really be cheating on Mr. Wolfe, and the "Oscar man" costume was a funny surprise.
3. It was obvious that Ask Tessa would be a failure or masking something, but I was dumbstruck by the way they revealed it at the end. That was an oddly dour note for this show.
I loved the twisted resolution to this week's installment of the Dallas/Noah saga. When done right, violence toward children can be hilarious (or perhaps that's just me).

The Americans "In Control"
A lesser show would've made Hinckley secretly a Russian spy made it some elaborate plan. Thankfully, they avoided that kind of historical rewriting. Instead, we got this good, tense hour filled with a lot or near misses and complicated it by sprinkling in Phillip and Elizabeth's marital issues, which as I've said before, is the aspect of the show that I think will really keep it interesting.


The Point of the Purge
Past Purges:
2/5-2/8   |   2/9-2/11   |   2/12-2/18   |  

1/17-1/18   |   1/19-1/21   |   1/22-1/23   |   1/24-1/29   |   1/30-2/4

12/16   |   12/17-12/21   |   ...12/22-1/7   |   1/8-1/9   |   1/10-1/16

11/25-11/28   |   11/29-11/30   |   12/1-12/5   |   12/6-12/8   |   12/9-12/15

10/28-11/3   |   11/4-11/10   |   11/11-11/16   |   11/17-11/20   |   11/21-11/24

9/22-9/28   |   9/29-10/4   |   10/6-10/12   |    10/13-10/19   |   10/20-10/27

50 Years of Oscar Inconsistency: The 1960s

As promised, here's the results of my insanely inefficient examination of Oscar's snubs. But, before I begin, let me be clear what I mean by "snub". I'm looking at which movies got all the right nominations but either still couldn't get the Best Picture win or even get a Best Picture nomination. These aren't the movies that couldn't even get nominated for anything. These are the movies that seems to get all the love from the Academy except for the big one. If you still don't understand what I mean, keep reading. You will.

In case you missed my lengthy diatribe about why I'm doing this. Here you go. And, in cased you missed my explanation of how I calculated the "snubs", here you go.

Previously: The 2000s

               The 1990s

               The 1980s

               The 1970s

42nd Academy Awards

This is the first case of the most nominated and seemingly deserving movie for the win not even getting the a Best Picture nod. They Don't Shoot Horses, Don't They? (42) looks like the favorite over Midnight Cowboy and Anne of the Thousand Days until you realize that it wasn't even in the field.


41st Academy Awards

Oliver! made sense to win. Fellow exclamation point title, Star! (43) made more sense to be nominated than Shakespeare adaptation, Romeo and Juliet.


40th Academy Awards

This looked like a year that a Sidney Potier movie was going to win. Instead of his seeming favorite, Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (44), the less likely In the Heat of the Night got the W.

39th Academy Awards

Fun Fact: No movie in the last 50 years of was as dominate in the nominations fields as Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (45). It almost doubled up A Man for All Seasons in nominations and still lost.


38th Academy Awards

It's a shame Dr. Zhivago had to go against The Sound of Music. It was a year of Titans. Cat Ballou (46) looks to have been screwed out of a best picture nod in favor of A Thousand Clowns though.

37th Academy Awards

It was a three horse race between between My Fair Lady, Becket, and Mary Poppins. Becket (47) had a lot more going for it but didn't get the win. As I've already covered, that happens a lot. As much as I hate saying it Hush...Hush, Sweet Charlotte (48) had more going for it than Dr. Strangelove.

36th Academy Awards

Hud (49) matches America, America and adds acting nominations, which I think should be enough to get it a best picture nominations. What I think didn't really matter 25 years before I was born.

35th Academy Awards

Alas, 50 years back: the final snub. It seems that teaching Helen Keller is more feasible than pulling a best picture nod over The Longest Day for The Miracle Worker (50).

There we go. 50 different cases of the Oscars not even making sense within it's own process. A lot of these are weak reasoning and would be subject to change with a different formula. I'm happy with this list though, simply because I just finished it and it's too late to back out now.
Sadly, my goal of finding a statistical way to prove which movie will win best picture. If anything, this little 50 year study tells you why that is. The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences are a fickle group.
It's about time I start looking this year.

50 Years of Oscar Inconsistency: The 1970s

As promised, here's the results of my insanely inefficient examination of Oscar's snubs. But, before I begin, let me be clear what I mean by "snub". I'm looking at which movies got all the right nominations but either still couldn't get the Best Picture win or even get a Best Picture nomination. These aren't the movies that couldn't even get nominated for anything. These are the movies that seems to get all the love from the Academy except for the big one. If you still don't understand what I mean, keep reading. You will.

In case you missed my lengthy diatribe about why I'm doing this. Here you go. And, in cased you missed my explanation of how I calculated the "snubs", here you go.

Previously: The 2000s

               The 1990s

               The 1980s

52nd Academy Awards

Kramer vs. Kramer and All That Jazz are in a dead heat for the win. I think Jazz had a slight advantage, but looking at the results, I guess it didn't. No, the snub here was The Rose (30) having more value nominations than Norma Rae but not wrangling a best picture nod.


51st Academy Awards

Good. The favorite won one. However, a best picture nod for Interiors (31) would've made more sense than An Unmarried Woman.


50th Academy Awards

What a mess. Annie Hall is probably the least likely winner ever when you look at things. The Turning Point, Julia, and Star Wars (32) all had much stronger nomination resumes. Even Close Encounters of the Third Kind (33) had more going for it, except, oh yeah, it couldn't even get a best picture nod over The Goodbye Girl: the only movie Annie Hall pulled better nominations than.

49th Academy Awards

People always bemoan Rocky "upsetting" Network, but look above. Rocky was the favorite in this race. Personally, I'm trying to figure out how Taxi Driver managed to not get more big nominations in order to look the part of a best picture nominee over Seven Beauties (34).

 48th Academy Awards

Another big four winner, One Flew Over the Cukoo's Nest was not actually the dominating force in the nominations that I thought it was. Still the favorite though. I guess The Sunshine Boys (35) had more right to a Best Picture nod than Nashville did.


47th Academy Awards

How's this for surprising? You know the classic movie The Godfather Part II, widely regarded as one of the greatest movies of all time? Yeah, the eventual winner was not, by the numbers, really the favorite going in. Chinatown (36) had a much stronger case.
And, did a second Coppala film (The Conversation) make a good case to be there over Murder on the Orient Express (37)? (Yeah, I see the typo too)

46th Academy Awards

A pretty predictable set of results here. It's not a snub, but I was surpised how close a runner-up The Exorcist was that year to The Sting. Horror movies don't get that kind of respect very often. The Way We Were (38) collected enough technical awards to outweigh A Touch of Class's screenplay nod.

45th Academy Awards

How's this for surprising? You know the classic movie The Godfather, widely regarded as one of the greatest movies of all time? Yeah, the eventual winner was not, by the numbers, really the favorite going in. Caberet (39) had a stronger case.
And, did the action movie Deliverance make a good case to be there over another action movie: The Posiden Adventure (40)?


44th Academy Awards

Finally! A year that makes sense.


43rd Academy Awards

Another predictable year. No surprises. Five Easy Pieces did have slightly less claim to the last best picture nod than Women in Love (41). That's about it.

Busy decade. A lot of bad choices, as always. Time for the final 9...