If you don't count documentaries, shorts and foreign categories, I've seen all but 5 of the nominees for this year's ceremony. That hardly makes me an expert at this, but I certainly feel more familiar with this year than in years past.
I normally like doing winner, dark horse, and my personal favorite, which I'm still doing, except I'll be doing the standard Will Win, Could Win, and Should Win.
Any nominee that I've seen is in italics
FEATURE
See here for my full explanation.
Amour
Argo [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN]
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln [COULD WIN]
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Animated Feature
Brave [COULD WIN] - Not Pixar's best, but a return to form after Cars 2.
Frankenweenie - Haven't heard a bad thing about it other than no one seeing it.
ParaNorman [SHOULD WIN] - A very pleasant surprise when I saw it.
The Pirates! Band of Misfits - Didn't see it. No desire to. It looks awful.
Wreck-It Ralph [WILL WIN] - Critical and popular darling. This looks like a heavy favorite.
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] It was nominated for best picture. Transitive property dictates it's going to win, and it should. Kon-Tiki - The name scares me. That's all I know about it.
No - I saw a preview for this and it looked pretty good.
A Royal Affair [COULD WIN] - I assume this category goes to name recognition and this is the one I recognize more after Amour.
War Witch - I like the title, but that's all I know about it. I'm admittedly ignorant in this category.
Best Documentary – Feature
5 Broken Cameras - I....
The Gatekeepers - ...Don't...
How to Survive a Plague - ...Know.
The Invisible War [COULD WIN] - Once again, name recognition dictates my pick here. Sorry.
Searching for Sugar Man [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - I know at least one person who saw this and quite liked it. In my book, that does a front runner make.
ACTING
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) - When I think of this movie, it takes a while for me to think, "Boy, Bradley Cooper was good in that" which is a shame, but the truth.
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) [WILL WIN] - Easiest pick of the night, right?
Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables) - There were some better choices here. And, as Le Mis' profile fades, so do Jackman's chances.
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) [SHOULD WIN] - I wasn't even a fan of the movie, but in a year that didn't have The Daniel Day-Lewis playing a beloved president in a box office hit, Phoenix would be in the thick of this race.
Denzel Washington (Flight) [COULD WIN] - The fact that he carries the entire movie could be enough to pull an upset (Hint: It isn't).
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) - I thought she'd be more of a player this late but there was some harsh and unjustified backlash at this movie that took her down with it.
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - She was the highlight of this movie and seems to have everyone on her side still. And, hey, she beat Meryl.
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) [COULD WIN] - If ever there was a dark horse, it's Riva. She is damn good in this and seems to be mentioned more and more these days. I'd have no issue with her winning.
Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) - The nomination will have to be enough which is still really fucking impressive.
Naomi Watts (The Impossible) - This movie was unfairly looked over. I'm glad she at least was noticed for her work in it.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Argo) - I don't really see what so many people loved about him in this. It felt like a bit part to me (albeit a good one).
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) [SHOULD WIN] - He was my favorite of this bunch so I'd be good with this as a sort of make-up call like Streep got last year.
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) - My only issue is that I'd call this a lead performance so it seems unfair to be here.
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) [WILL WIN] - Lincoln was nothing if not an actors showcase and his was one of the showiest. Personally, I couldn't not see this as Jones playing a character, which I seem to be in the minority on.
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) [COULD WIN] - He won three years ago for the same role. This was less flashy, but I could see people voting for him again. Oh, and I also see him as a lead, but whatever.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Master) - She was good and I'm sad that the only things she's been collecting are nominations, but this isn't her year either.
Sally Field (Lincoln) [COULD WIN] - They like her, they really like her. Technically, she's never lost.
Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - She was my favorite part of the movie and I'm ok with her winning because of "I Dreamed a Dream".
Helen Hunt (The Sessions) - Happy to be nominated. Nothing more.
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) - The only way she's winning is if Silver Linings Playbook wins big.
WRITING
Amour (Michael Haneke) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - I had issues with all the other scripts here, so this is my de facto pick and I think that's how it will be for the Academy.
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino) [COULD WIN] - Tarantino's only win was for the Pulp Fiction screenplay so a win here isn't unprecedented.
Flight (John Gatins) - Personally, I thought the script was sort of a mess, held together by the acting.
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola) - Has the Academy ever really like Anderson here? It was a nice little screenplay, but I think it will be too weird to win.
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal) - I credit them for making this story more interesting than it really was.
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay
Argo (Chris Terrio) [WILL WIN] - Honestly, I think the story was pretty slight, but if Argo is really the front-runner for best picture, it almost has to win here.
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin) - Any nomination for this movie is a win for them. I don't see anywhere for them to get an actual win though.
Life of Pi (David Magee) [SHOULD WIN] - An "unfilmable"story made into a good movie has to be somewhat credited to a good screenplay, but I haven't heard anyone credit that.
Lincoln (Tony Kushner) [COULD WIN] - A collection of good speeches are good speeches nonetheless. I see more credit going to the actors than the words they are saying.
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell) - I thought the end was sloppy and most of that was in the writing.
SHORT
Best Live Action Short Film
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow (Dood Van Een Schaduw)
Henry
Best Documentary – Short Subject
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
Best Animated Short Film
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
The Longest Daycare
Paperman [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - I assume that if Disney puts a short before a movie that it is probably the favorite, and having seen it, I can't complain. This was a sweet short.
SOUND
Anna Karenina - I think the clothing and production was too loud for me to even hear a score.
Argo - There's a chance this wins because of overall Argo love but that would be the only reason.
Life of Pi [WILL WIN] - If the Artist taught me anything, it's that the less dialogue, the more awarded the score.
Lincoln [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - People claim this has a lot of self-plagiarizing, but my stance is, if it works, it works, and this is vintage John Williams.
Skyfall - Unless people think the score is Adele playing on a loop, I don't see anyone crediting this.
Best Original Song
"Before My Time" (Chasing Ice) - Never heard of it.
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" (Ted) - If "Blame Canada" couldn't win, I don't see this doing so either.
"Pi's Lullaby" (Life of Pi) - Eh. Not for me.
"Skyfall" (Skyfall) [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - Somewhere, there is a stone tablet with 10 rules. I believe the first one is "Adele cannot lose".
"Suddenly" (Les Misérables) [COULD WIN] - I have a hard time doubting a musical's ability to win for best song.
Best Sound Editing
Argo - I won't have an educated pick here. I admit this. Argo could win due to the front-runner effect, but I can't say I was impressed by the sound editing (as I understand it) in this.
Django Unchained - The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking this could pull off a win here. It did sound good.
Life of Pi - This could be this year's Hugo with the tech. awards. I doubt it though.
Skyfall [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - I assume any action movie with polish has an advantage here. The polish over other movies of its ilk is why it has my pick.
Zero Dark Thirty [WILL WIN] - The infiltration of the Osama facility is enough of an attention grabber, I suspect.
Best Sound Mixing
Argo - I mean, if it's the front-runner, people may vote for it for a lot of stupid things.
Les Misérables[WILL WIN] - I think a lot of people will assume that the mixing of music into the scenes will be enough for a win.
Life of Pi [COULD WIN] - Once again, I could see this being this year's Hugo.
Lincoln - I'm not all that sure why this is here. The score never over powered things, I guess.
Skyfall [SHOULD WIN] - I like that Skyfall got here. It'd be cool if it went all the way.
OTHER
Michael Haneke (Amour) [SHOULD WIN] - I credit Haneke for his restraint which made everything that much more effective.
Ang Lee (Life of Pi) [COULD WIN] - He did a very impressive job with this one.
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) - I can't say I was "wowed" by what he did here.
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) [WILL WIN] - As soon as my picks (Bigelow and Affleck) weren't nominated, this one looked gift wrapped for Spielberg.
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) - Something tells me this won't be his last.
Best Production Design
Anna Karenina [SHOULD WIN] - This is the only movie I saw and immediately said "this will be nominated for production design".
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [WILL WIN] - I imagine some Lord of the Rings love will carry over. Perhaps they will feel its time has passed.
Les Misérables - The design was nice but it sure felt limited. That's probably the wrong way to look at it though.
Life of Pi [COULD WIN] - I think the "it's pretty" factor won't translate here, but maybe I'm wrong.
Lincoln - It did look good.
Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina - Production Design, yes. Cinematography, not so much.
Django Unchained - Really? This? It has a distinctive look, but I don't see it.
Life of Pi [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - This movie was pretty gorgeous and I think everyone appreciates that.
Lincoln [COULD WIN] - I liked the look of this too.
Skyfall - I'm happy to see this get some nominations. I don't see it winning any of the big ones.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock - I remember when this was considered a potential Oscar juggernaut. That was misguided.
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - There were a lot of costumes.
Les Misérables [WILL WIN] - I have no reason to think this will win other than because I think it will.
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina [COULD WIN] [SHOULD WIN]- I liked these costumes the best.
Les Misérables [WILL WIN] I liked these costumes the second best, but I think it will get more Academy love.
Lincoln - While authentic, I don't think the costuming demanded attention from the voters which will hurt it.
Mirror Mirror - Look, I found this to be a very colorful movie and have a very unique look. I don't think it will matter though.
Snow White and the Huntsman
Best Film Editing
Argo [COULD WIN] I was really close to switching this to will win status. I think this is one of those cases where the fact that it will win big could carry it to a win here.
Life of Pi - I don't see all the expected tech love to carry over to here.
Lincoln - This really wasn't an edit heavy movie as far as I can tell.
Silver Linings Playbook - This is when I admit to you that I don't really know what editing is all about more than a cursory understanding. I can't say I understand this nomination though.
Zero Dark Thirty [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] -I think the end sequence alone should give it the win here, but in general, this was a pretty well edited film and I think it's showy enough to win.
Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [COULD WIN] - I mean, if this wasn't locked up, I'd say The Hobbit at least stands a chance, but it doesn't because it is locked up.
Life of Pi [WILL WIN] [SHOULD WIN] - ...and deservedly so. The effects in this movie being so good is one of the primary reasons that none of the acting (what little there was) is nominated.
Marvel's The Avengers - Hey, it got a nomination. Good for it. This is certainly a nomination that it deserved.
Prometheus - Again, glad to see it get at least one nomination and it deserves this one.
Snow White and the Huntsman - Wait. What? How did this get in here? Was it all because of the Queen's bath scene? If so, I'll allow it.
Fuck, I'm long winded. I sure do love to post my opinions. If you got through this all, you may need another hobby (if you find one, let me know. I'm in need of a few).
Regardless, there you go. I can already guarantee that my picks won't be much more accurate than the average movie-goer. If I do pick these well, you better believe my next post will be very self-congratulatory. In the case which I'm not so right, you better believe I will underplay all this.
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