It’s good to be back. I scaled things back last year, but I’m ready to resume my tradition of overly in-depth Oscar predictions for each category. The guilds, BAFTAs, critics, and supposedly Golden Globes have all made their picks. Now it’s my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part-Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Introduction & International Feature
Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling
Animated & Documentary Feature
Glossary
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
ADG - Art Director's Guild Award
ACS - American Cinematographer Society Award
(In Order of Likelihood)
Nightmare Alley
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Period Production Design – Winner
Dune
BAFTA - Production Design - Winner
ADG - Fantasy Production Design – Winner
West Side Story
ADG - Period Production Design – Nominee
The Tragedy of Macbeth
ADG - Period Production Design – Nominee
The Power of the Dog
Production Design is prone to getting weird. There are trends but no hard rules. The BAFTA and ADG awards agreeing is nice. It’s happened 11 times in the last two decades and 8 of those went on to win the Oscar. The Oscar winner has also won at least one of the ADG or BAFTA 16 of 20 times. When the category goes rogue, there’s not much consistency. It’s not a Best Picture indicator or correlated that closely with any award like Costumes or Cinematography. The best test is the lazy one: What production design yells the loudest at you? That’s why Tim Burton and Baz Lurhman films have fared so well. Burton’s Alice in Wonderland (2010) and Sweeny Todd (2007) both won without precursor wins. Lurhman’s Moulin Rogue! (2001) took it from Amelie, and The Great Gatsby (2013) cruised to the win.
With all that in mind, I’m going on a limb and picking Nightmare Alley over presumed favorite, Dune. Two Guillermo Del Toro films have won this award before (Pan’s Labyrinth – 2006, The Shape of Water – 2017). Two of Denis Villeneuve’s films have lost this before (Arrival – 2016, Blade Runner 2049 – 2017). Eagle-eyed readers will even see that one of those losses was to a Del Toro film. For whatever reason, Academy voters aren’t so keen on Villenue’s spacy looking Production Design. They like the more elemental look of Del Toro’s films*. That fits with a lot of past results. Mad Max: Fury Road beat The Martian in 2015. The Great Gatsby beat Gravity in 2013. Alice in Wonderland over Inception (2010). The Grand Budapest Hotel over Interstellar (2014). I’m probably being too clever by half picking against Dune. It does seem like the obvious winner. Something in my gut doesn’t trust it though.
*All the Production Design nominations were different Art Directors and Set Decorators. The directors are the common element, so that’s why I’m focusing on them.
After those two, it’s hard to see any of these winning. West Side Story can point to La La Land winning in 2016. It doesn’t have the overall support that La La Land had though. I think we forget how dominant La La Land looked before Moonlight took Best Picture. The Tragedy of Macbeth’s Production Design is absolutely going to get credited to its Cinematography instead. I think The Power of the Dog showing up here is more a show of overall support than an indication that something is brewing here. The closest analog I can find is Lincoln winning in 2012 after losing the BAFTA and ADG. The Power of the Dog wasn’t even nominated for those though.
(In Order of Likelihood)
Dune
ASC - Cinematography – Winner
BAFTA - Cinematography - Winner
Nightmare Alley
ASC - Cinematography – Nominee
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
The Tragedy of Macbeth
ASC - Cinematography – Nominee
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
The Power of the Dog
ASC - Cinematography – Nominee
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
West Side Story
8 of the last 10 times a film took both the ASC and BAFTA award, it also one the Oscar. One of those exceptions was Pan’s Labyrinth winning the Oscar after Children of Men took the precursors. That’s a point in favor of Nightmare Alley. The other time was The Fellowship of the Ring, a technical awards giant that year, winning the Oscar over precursor favorite, The Man Who Wasn’t There. That’s a point in favor of fellow technical giant, Dune. In balance, that leaves Dune significantly ahead. Oh, and Denis Villeneuve’s last film, Blade Runner 2049, also won this. Mank and Roma winning two of the last three years makes me worried I’m not giving The Tragedy of Macbeth’s gorgeous black and white cinematography enough of a chance. There’s a chance that The Power of the Dog could swoop in as part of a Best Picture run. That isn’t very common though. Best Picture and Cinematography have only matched once in the last decade (Birdman). West Side Story probably should be more in this race, but the only recent similar winner was La La Land, which had a lot more going for it.
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