Emmy Picks: Writing

With the Emmys a week away, it's about time I start making my picks, starting with Writing. The way this works is I've put each nominee in order from who I think is most likely to win to least likely. My personal favorite is listed as such and I've included the biggest snub from the category last. Simple enough, especially for the couple of you who have read these before.

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
[My Favorite] Louie - "So Did the Fat Lady" (Louis C.K.) (FX) The only former winner (writer or show) this year (2012). Orange is coming on strong, but I have a hard time thinking about Sarah Baker's speech and this not winning. Then again, I said the same thing about "Poker" in 2011 and it lost to Modern Family.

Orange Is the New Black - "I Wasn't Ready" (Liz Friedman & Jenji Kohan) (Netflix) I'll certainly regret not getting on the Orange train now, before it blasts through the ceremony. If the nomination total reflects anything, this could be a very good night for the show.

Episodes - "Episode Five" (David Crane & Jeffrey Klarik) (Showtime) Three time nominee although [thankfully] never the winner.

Veep - "Special Relationship" (Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, & Tony Roche) (HBO) I'm dumbfounded that it's taken three seasons for an episode of Veep to get nominated. As much as I see this show as a dark horse for the night, I don't see it breaking through in this category, which is where it probably deserves to the most.

Silicon Valley - "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency" (Alec Berg) (HBO) I mean, Silicon Valley is already the surprise of nomination day. What are the odds it can win with an episode about developing an algorithm to jerk people off? I'd love to see it happen though.

Biggest Snub: Parks & Recreation - "Moving Up" (Alan Yang & Aisha Muharrar) - This could've functioned as a perfect series finale for one of my favorite comedies.

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
True Detective - "The Secret Fate of All Life" (Nic Pizzolatto) (HBO) Easily the most quoted lines from the show came in this episode. The series as a whole had some rough patches, but for a brief moment, the writing on this show was transcendent.

[My Favorite] Breaking Bad - "Ozymandias" (Moira Walley-Beckett) (AMC) - It feels like blasphemy to not pick this to win since it was one of the finest hours of TV I've ever seen. I think Breaking Bad will come away with the big prize at the end of the night, but the competition is too stiff for it not to take a lumps along the way.

Breaking Bad - "Felina" (Vince Gilligan) (AMC) - They did like the finale better for directing somehow, so perhaps Emmy love will all go to this episode. I should also point out that Breaking bad has never won this category and didn't even pull a nomination until last year.

House of Cards - "Chapter 14" (Beau Willimon) (Netflix) - I fear that voters may confuse sililoquizing with good writing. Hell, they gave Jeff Daniels an award for it last year.

Game of Thrones - "The Children" (David Benioff & D. B. Weiss) (HBO) - I klike that Game of Thrones continues to get nominated. There's no chance it's winning though.

Biggest Snub: Mad Men - "Waterloo" (Matthew Weiner & Carly Wray) - It's pretty ridiculous for Mad Men to fall out of this category, as it is still one of the best written shows on TV.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
[My Favorite] The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central) Daily Show and Colbert virtually trade off every year here. By my estimation, it's The Daily Show's turn after wins in 2012, 2011, 2009, 2003-06, and 2001.

[ACTUAL WINNER] The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) Colbert did win last year (as well as 2010 and 2008) and Stephen Colbert has more buzz now that he's taking Letterman's chair soon.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) If anyone is taking this from the Comedy Central power couple, it's NBC's late night darling. Since taking over The Tonight Show, it has been all buzz for Jimmy Fallon.

Portlandia (IFC) Even if they refuse to give it an Outstanding Variety series nomination, the Emmys do seem to appreciate Portlandia elsewhere.

Key & Peele (Comedy Central) Sketch comedy hasn't won here in a long time (SNL in 2002).

Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central) And if sketch comedy is going to win, I'll take the more established Key & Peele over Schumer.

Biggest Snub: @midnight (Comedy Central) I've been listening to too much Nerdist recently. This may be Stockholm Syndrome.

NOTE: Apparently, for the first time in several years, this award was given out during the Creative Arts Emmys last Saturday. I've had this typed up for a week, so I'm keeping my original picks. As you can see, I wasn't right nor was I far off.

Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries, Movie or a Dramatic Special
The Normal Heart (Larry Kramer) (HBO) HBO movies take this more often than not (Game Change in 2012, You Don't Know Jack in 2010) recently. Behind the Candelabra losing last year was a fluke I don't expect to happen again.

[My Favorite] Fargo - "The Crocodile's Dilemma" (Noah Hawley) (FX) If it was up to me, this is the runaway winner because Fargo is at another level. The series did dominate the nominations, so maybe Emmy voters will share my sentiment.

Sherlock - "His Last Vow" (Steven Moffat) (PBS) So far, Sherlock has proven to be one of those shows that gets nominated a lot but doesn't ever win anything.

Treme - "...To Miss New Orleans" (David Simon & Eric Overmyer) (HBO) Finally, Treme gets some nominations. All it took was reclassifying its final season as a Mini-Series. Not sure how that works.

American Horror Story: Coven -  "Bitchcraft" (Ryan Murphy & Brad Falchuk) (FX) Coven got a lot of nominations, but every season has and it only ever leads to a Jessica Lange win.

Luther (Neil Cross) (BBC America) Its second nomination (also got one in 2012). Like last time, it's more of an afterthought. Then again, I said the same thing about The Hour last year and it won.

Biggest Snub: Clear History (Larry David) (HBO) I figure that anything written by Larry David, beloved former Emmy nominee, that doesn't end up nominated is a snub.