Emmy Picks: Directing

With the Emmys less than a week away, I better make my picks. Next up: Directing. The way this works is I've put each nominee in order from who I think is most likely to win to least likely. My personal favorite is listed as such and I've included the biggest snub from the category last. Simple enough, especially for the couple of you who have read these before.

Previously...
Emmy Predictions - Writing

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
[My Favorite] Orange Is the New Black - "Lesbian Request Denied" (Jodie Foster) (Netflix) Orange dominated the nominations and is largely credited for its wonderful handling of a large cast. Modern Family looks weak and now is the time to strike. It also doesn't hurt that living legend, Jodie Foster directed this.

Modern Family - "Las Vegas" (Gail Mancuso) (ABC) Modern Family has won the past three years and "Las Vegas" is as direction-heavy an episode as they have ever done. It's foolish to pick entirely against Modern Family to win for its direction.

Louie - "Elevator, Part 6" (Louis C.K.) (FX) I still think the biggest thing that hurts Louie's chances here is that voters focus on him as an actor first, writer second, and director third. I think he'd have a better chance of winning with "In the Woods", where he was less visible on screen and his other work front and center.

Glee - "100" (Paris Barclay) (Fox) The last show to win this that wasn't Modern Family was Glee for the pilot. I think "Quarterback" could've won. I'm not so sure about "100".

Episodes - "Episode Nine" (Iain B. MacDonald) (Showtime) It keeps getting nominated so anything is possible.

Silicon Valley - "Minimum Viable Product" (Mike Judge) (HBO) Mike Judge is a recognizable name and probably the only reason this show got award attention, but it still feels like an outsider looking in.

Biggest Snub: Parks and Recreation - Moving Up (Michael Schur) (NBC) As long as Parks & Rec. doesn't get nominations it deserves, I'm going to complain about it not getting nominations.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
[My Favorite] True Detective - "Who Goes There" (Cary Joji Fukunaga) (HBO) It's hard to watch that heist scene and see how this loses. If "Ozymandias" was in the field, it would be my pick. In its absence, I have to go with my gut.

Breaking Bad - "Felina" (Vince Gilligan) (AMC) Breaking Bad won for Outstanding Drama Series last year, despite losing for writing and directing. This was considered a much stronger season though. The competition level is higher too. It's hard to say.

Boardwalk Empire - "Farewell Daddy Blues" (Tim Van Patten) (HBO) Boardwalk Empire is a two time winner (2011, 2012) and Van Patten won in 2012. This isn't without precedent, but those wins were in a time when Boardwalk was still getting other nominations too.

Game of Thrones - "The Watchers on the Wall" (Neil Marshall) (HBO) This is Game of Thrones' first nomination for directing. This is a great episode to break in with, but it's hard seeing anyone beating the two-headed dragon at the top.

House of Cards - "Chapter 14" (Carl Franklin) (Netflix) It won last year, but a lot of that should be credited to David Fincher directing the pilot. I'd be surprised if the love here carried into season 2.

Downton Abbey - "Episode One" (David Evans) (PBS) It has that 2011 Mini-Series directing win. Since moving to Drama though, it hasn't stood a chance.

Biggest Snub: Breaking Bad - "Ozymandias" (Rian Johnson) (AMC) "Ozymandias" not being nominated here invalidates the entire category. Plain and simple.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) I don't have the exact numbers to back this one up, but it still looks like a two-horse race. I went with Daily Show for writing so I'll pick Colbert here.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central) - And if I'm wrong, I expect it to go to my second pick.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) Still, the reinvigorated Tonight Show could surprise some people.

[ACTUAL WINNER] [My Favorite] Saturday Night Live (NBC) If any show repeatedly deserves more credit here, it's SNL.

Portlandia (IFC) Still no sign that the Emmys are ready to actually award sketch comedy shows.

Biggest Snub: Key & Peele (Comedy Central) I just want to see more sketch comedy get some love. Let's ignore how I tend to forget to watch sketch comedy.

NOTE: Apparently, for the first time in several years, this award was given out during the Creative Arts Emmys last Saturday. I've had this typed up for a week, so I'm keeping my original picks. As you can see, I wasn't right nor was I far off.

Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries or TV Movie
The Normal Heart (Ryan Murphy) (HBO) Even more than writing, this is a category which gets dominated by the year's big HBO TV Movie (2013: Behind the Candelabra, 2012: Game Change, 2010: Temple Grandin). I'd love to see Fargo win, but I think a finished package like a movie rates better here than anything episodic.

[My Favorite] Fargo - "Buridan's Ass" (Colin Bucksey) (FX) I worry that the two episodes nominated will cannibalize themselves. If Fargo can pull through, the smart play is to go for finales or premieres.

Fargo - "The Crocodile's Dilemma" (Adam Bernstein) (FX) I don't think the possible winner list goes below here. The Normal Heart or Fargo. Take your pick.

Sherlock - "His Last Vow" (Nick Hurran) (PBS) If you don't even use the strongest episode in your season, you shouldn't expect to win.

American Horror Story: Coven - "Bitchcraft" (Alfonso Gomez-Rejon) (FX) I kind of want this to win, simply for having the best episode title.

Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight (Stephen Frears) (HBO) I don't know much about this, but I do know that all of HBO's efforts are going toward The Normal Heart winning.

Biggest Snub:Fargo - "The Heap" (Scott Winant) Take your pick of Fargo episodes. Just about all of them deserve a nomination.