Prediction: Breaking Bad repeats for the win. It's gonna look a lot like 2007 with The Sopranos. Bryan Cranston is a lock to get his fourth trophy. Aaron Paul, Dean Norris, and Anna Gunn all get nominations with at least on of them winning.
Reasoning: We all knew when Breaking Bad won in 2013 it had to win in 2014. Nothing else would make sense.
Reality: True Detective gave a scare. Otherwise, nothing else was even close. Technically, Dean Norris didn't get a nomination, but all three of the nominated actors winning is enough for me to get full credit for this one (+1)
Prediction: Modern Family loses doesn't win anything the night of the main ceremony, specifically, for Outstanding Comedy series.
Reasoning: Four wins is hard. Five wins is almost unheard of, especially for a show that isn't nearly good enough.
Reality: Frasier and Modern Family are the same kind of show, so I should've picked it to match, not fall short. (+0)
Prediction: The Colbert Report does not repeat. I'm not sure if The Daily Show will swoop back in or if another show (Portlandia, perhaps) swoops in.
Reasoning: Part of me thought that Jon Stewart's summer hiatus to direct a movie impacted the voting (even though those episodes technically counted toward this year). If not that, then a break from 10-year monotony could've shaken the voters to try something new.
Reality: Emmy voters like to move from one inevitability to another when given the chance. This being the last Emmys before Colbert jumps to CBS certainly helped the Report win too. (+0)
Prediction: NBC keeps its spot in Outstanding Comedy Series without 30 Rock. Be it the return of Parks & Rec. or a new series jumping in (Michael J Fox Show?), NBC will not break its 32 year streak with at least one Comedy Series nomination.
Reasoning: 32 year streak! Parks and Rec. is still a top tier comedy. The Michael J Fox Show looked like a player. Even the return to form of Community could've been met with open arms (they did land a writing nomination before Harmon was fired).
Reality: NBC pushed too hard toward broad. All its Fall releases either failed (Michael J Fox Show, Sean Saves the Universe) or were unremarkable (About a Boy, Growing Up Fisher). It tried desperately to lose their niche comedies (Community, Parks & Rec). More importantly, the competition was too much. (+0)
Prediction: Assuming it premieres in time, Louie declines its nomination count.
Reasoning: The Academy clearly loves Louis C.K. but an experimental show like Louie is bound to stop being fresh.
Reality: He lost the guest acting nominations, which is surprising in Sarah Baker's case. He kept the big nominations though. It's clear the show will never win big, but if it's this generations' Larry Sanders Show, I'm ok with that. (+0)
Prediction: Tarran Killam and one of the female cast members get nominations in Supporting categories for SNL.
Reasoning: With Hader and Sudeikis leaving, Killam looked like the new go-to impression and hansom man on the show and there are too many talented ladies on SNL to ignore.
Reality: None of the men stuck out this season of SNL (partly because there were so many of them). McKinnon did get the nomination on the women's side. I almost want to award myself full credit due to the Fred Armisen nomination for Portlandia, but I'll score honestly. (+.5)
Prediction: Orange is the New Black carries its buzz to the Golden Globes but fizzles out by the time the Emmy come back around. It does not get a best comedy nomination.
Reasoning: Orange had all the buzz last year at this time. It's hard for a summer show to maintain buzz though. I forgot to count that the second season would be coming out around the time voters were picking nominations though.
Reality: I was wrong about the Globes (where only Schilling was recognized) and the Emmys (where Orange led comedy nominations). There's no way around it, I underestimated the support it had. (+0)
Prediction: Sundance Channel stays a player in the Mini-Series game.
Reasoning: Top of the Lake was so good last year and it's not hard to break in (and this was before they announced that they'd be splitting the Mini-Series and Movie award).
Reality: Sundance didn't produce any mini-series. That's not my fault, so I'm calling this an incomplete (I).
Prediction: Network dramas continue the cold streak in the Outstanding Drama field.
Reasoning: It's a tough field. The Good Wife has been the only perennial contender and The Black List was the only potential party crasher.
Reality: The Good Wife nearly fell back in to Emmy favor but Downton Abbey successfully edged it out. (+1).
Prediction: And, to keep with the tradition, I'll have seen at least one of the Mini-Series/TV Movie nominees.
Reasoning: It's just one Mini-Series or Movie. How hard can it be? There's no way I kept up a third year of not seeing any.
Reality: I saw not one, but four of the nominees. Fargo showed up with some category fudging. I finally got around to Sherlock. HBO Go access allowed me the chance to see The Normal Heart. For some reason (more because of Sarah Hyland than I'd like to admit), I actually watched Bonnie & Clyde. (+1).
That gives me a final score of 3.5 out of 9, which is down from last year. Perhaps I was too bold with my picks or I assumed inertia wouldn't cause so many repeat winners. No matter. I sure my picks for 2015 will be just as dicey,
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