Previously...
Emmy Predictions - Writing
Emmy Predictions - Directing
Emmy Predictions - Supporting Acting
Emmy Prediction - Lead Acting
Orange Is the New Black (Netflix) It really looks like Modern Family will be dethroned this year, and it's most likely that it will be upended by a new challenger. That makes this super nominee (5 nodes for acting, 1 for directing, writing, and casting each) the most likely winner.
Modern Family (ABC) Only Frasier has won five times in this category and Modern Family, despite its shared DNA is no Frasier. It lost some nominations last year and surprised many by still winning. It lost even more nominations this year and finally looks weak enough to lose. Still, it's stupid to count the reigning four time winner out.
[My Favorite] Veep (HBO) I may be underestimating Veep. It's picked up nomination each year, adding writing this year to go along with four acting nominations. Season 3 was the best yet for the show and Emmy voters love it. Even as I'm writing this, I'm wondering if I should place it higher.
Louie (FX) I thought last year was Louie's best chance. It still has the Lead Actor, Directing, Writing, and Casting nominations, so technically, it's in a good position for a win. This was admittedly a down season, and given how the six and three part episodes in this season could play according to the Emmy voting procedure, it's not likely that this is the year to win.
The Big Bang Theory (CBS) With it getting bigger each season, it's hard to dismiss Big Bang. Jim Parsons has his fourth Emmy locked in by my measure and it seems unlikely that Big Bang never wins this award, but year-to-year it's still an underdog.
Silicon Valley (HBO) I wouldn't begrudge a win here. The nomination itself was so unlikely that a win is almost too much to ask for.
Biggest Snub: Brooklyn Nine Nine (FOX) A strong argument could be made for many shows. Girls fell out of the field despite having an equally good season as the nominated years. Even a mediocre Parks & Rec. season like this is one of the six best of the year. Shameless did some category hopping, had its least funny, but probably best season and still couldn't make it in. I'm going with the youth movement though. It took Brooklyn Nine Nine a while to get good, but once it did, it was a top notch series, making the kind of jump that The Office and Parks & Rec. had [in their second seasons due to short first seasons]. If there's one show from this TV season that I'm recommending people get in on early, it's this one.
[My Favorite] Breaking Bad (AMC) Last year, Breaking Bad won this award with only an Anna Gun win for Supporting Actress. That season was nowhere near as good as this one but True Detective is better competition than anything last year. Still, a year since the finale, Breaking Bad is still incredibly highly regarded and True Detective has taken some hits. The only thing working against Breaking Bad is that the Emmys are far more likely to reward a strong coming out than a powerful finish (i.e. first seasons win more often than last seasons by a lot).
True Detective (HBO) I have True Detective winning for Lead Actor, Writing, and Directing and still have them losing? That's the nature of Emmy voting. Those awards are voted on based on single episodes. Outstanding Drama Series is voted on using several episodes and Breaking Bad's eight are better than True Detective's eight.
Game of Thrones (HBO) Last year was Game of Thrones' best chance. The field was weaker, season three was it's most consistently strong, and it was still young enough to not require a groundswell of support to win. It still has several acting nominations, writing, directing, and casting. It's not unfathomable that it wins but it would be considered a major upset.
Mad Men (AMC) The former four time winner (2008-2011) is still getting nominated, but the breadth of the nominations is down tremendously (only a couple for acting). It is clearly a show that the Emmys have moved past.
House of Cards (Netflix) Like Seabiscuit, House of Cards needs to be in the lead right out of the gate. It didn't win last year, and because of that, there is no chance it will this year. That's the nature of Emmy momentum.
Downton Abbey (PBS) Most people are laughing off this nomination to begin with.
Biggest Snub: The Americans (FX) A number of the best contenders I haven't seen. The Good Wife had a comeback season. Boardwalk Empire built toward a strong end like always. Masters of Sex had a fine inaugural season. For me, it comes down to two sophomore shows: Hannibal and The Americans. Hannibal was predictably dark and beautiful, but The Americans made a creative leap and ended as strong as it started, with no fallow period in the middle.
[My Favorite] The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) Finally broke The Daily Show's 10 year dominance in the category last year. The last time Variety Series had a single year winner was 1997 so The Colbert Report is poised to repeat.
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central) Winner from 2003-2012. It wouldn't be crazy to think last year was a fluke.
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) The most buzzed about show in the category. It's technically both a new and an established show, which makes it a dangerous Emmy contender. It's hard to look past the powerful Comedy Central duo, but this is the most likely usurper.
Saturday Night Live (NBC) I mean, it is a former winner. Then again, its wins were in 1993 and 1976: two of the best seasons of the nearly 40 year old series.
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) One could argue that Real Time would have a win by now in an era without The Daily Show. After all, it has been nominated here since 2005.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) This is the only place that this show keeps getting nominated. At this point it has as much to do with Emmy complacency as anything.
Biggest Snub: Portlandia (IFC) Let's see. Nominated for writing. Nominated for directing. Nominated for Supporting Actor (Fred Armisen). Somehow, not nominated for Outstanding Variety Series. Please explain.
[My favorite] Fargo (FX) One of the most critically acclaimed shows of the years. The Emmy voters seem to like it as well. Its only real competition is The Normal Heart and that's in a different category. It's hard seeing Fargo losing this.
American Horror Story: Coven (FX) American Horror Story hasn't been able to win but it keeps getting the nominations, so maybe it's only a matter of time.
Treme (HBO) Maybe the only thing holding Treme back was the stiff Drama Series competition. David Simon's losing track record suggests otherwise.
Luther (BBC America) There is that 2012 nomination to look to.
The White Queen (Starz) It's on Starz. I'm not ready to start treating that like a think that's going to win.
Bonnie & Clyde (A&E) I actually watched this. All I can say is "no". The nomination is fine. A win is not.
Biggest Snub: Dancing on the Edge (Starz) With Miniseries and TV Movie divided, again, this category is weak as hell. Shows that got nominated shouldn't've. I know nothing about Dancing but it has the closest look of a snub.
[My Favorite] The Normal Heart (HBO) What, like it's not going to win?
Sherlock: "His Last Vow" (PBS) This feels like the strongest competitor, due to star power alone. It's a pointless fight though. There's no other possible winner.
Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight (HBO) An HBO movie will always have the advantage over competitors. This is the secondary HBO movie though.
Killing Kennedy (National Geographic) Never count out something with Kennedy in the title.
The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime) I don't know much about it. By habit, I dismiss Lifetime movies from consideration for the win.
Biggest Snub: Clear History (HBO) This category isn't any stronger than Miniseries, but it does have the inexplicably not Emmy supported Clear History to pick as snubbed.
[My "Favorite"] The Voice (NBC) Last year's winner. Still a popular show. No reason to bet against it.
The Amazing Race (CBS) Let's see, The Amazing Race has won this 9 of the 11 years since the category was created. That's what we call 'credentials'.
Top Chef (Bravo) It has a lone win in 2010, which puts it ahead of the remaining nominees.
Project Runway (Lifetime) 10th consecutive nomination. Never won.
Dancing with the Stars (ABC) 9th consecutive nomination. Never won.
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox) 4th consecutive nomination. New won.
Biggest Snub: RuPaul's Drag Race (Logo) Come on Emmys. Get with the times and nominate Drag Race already. It deserves it.
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