Previously...
Emmy Predictions - Writing
Emmy Predictions - Directing
Tony Hale (Veep - "Crate") (HBO) He won last year and "Crate" is a fantastic submission episode. It also helps that Veep is coming off its strongest season to date.
Ty Burrell (Modern Family - "Spring-a-Ding-Fling") (ABC) Five consecutive nominations, with a win in 2011. Burrell is still the most reliable actor on his show, and it's possible he comes away with a win despite the rest of the show falling off the map.
[My Favorite] Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine - "Christmas") (Fox) The Emmys love Andre Braugher. Love him! Seven nominations, across Mini-Series, Drama, and Comedy, for six different roles. Two wins as well. It is stupid to not at least consider him. I'm not sure "Christmas" is a great standout episode though and that could ultimately do him in.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family - "Message Received") (ABC) Mitchell had a lot of dramatic beats throughout the season and Ferguson is also a five-time nominee. Still, when the best moments in your submission episode come from a recording on an answering machine, that's a bad sign.
Adam Driver (Girls - "Two Plane Rides") (HBO) I'm still shocked to see Driver in the nomination field. I assume that his performance in Girls is too divisive. While that didn't stop him from getting another nomination, it will keep him from ever winning. Still, he is going to be in Star Wars...
Fred Armisen (Portlandia - "Pull-Out King") (IFC) The surprise of the nomination field.
Biggest Snub: Nick Offerman (Parks & Recreation) (NBC) - Considering that Nick Offerman should be giving John Larroquette and David Hyde Pierce a run for all-time trophy count in this category, he is always going to be considered a snub seeing that he's NEVER been nominated. Not once. For any season. How does that happen?
Allison Janney (Mom - "Estrogen and a Hearty Breakfast") (CBS) Emmy voters love Allison Janney perhaps even more than Andre Braugher. 8 nomination and four wins. Double nominee this year. From everything I hear, Mom quietly has more depth to it than people expect, and that surprise could seal the award for her.
Kate Mulgrew (Orange Is the New Black - "Tit Punch") (Netflix) I don't know how dominant Orange will be. It's not a stretch to see it reaching Mulgrew.
Julie Bowen (Modern Family - "The Feud") (ABC) Two time winner. Five time nominee. No risk of Vergara cancelling her out. She's still a player in this category.
[My Favorite] Anna Chlumsky (Veep - "Detroit") (HBO) If Veep really is the shark I think it could be, Chlumsky does enough good things to pull a Merritt Weaver and get the win.
Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory - "The Indecision Amalgamation") (CBS) Until someone other than Jim Parsons wins for this show, I'm assuming no one will, even a three-time nominee.
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Anna Kendrick") Since actors from Variety series became eligible here, none have won.
Biggest Snub: Cristin Milioti (How I Met Your Mother) (CBS) She belongs here simply for almost salvaging the final season of How I Met Your Mother. In a world where Carter Bays and Craig Thomas understood how great a talent and character they had on contract, she would've been more prominent and a virtual lock in the category.
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad - "Confessions") (AMC) This is the first year in which Paul really played a supporting character in the show. Without any True Detective competition, this is Paul's (five-time nominee, two-time winner, and all-around nice guy) to lose.
[My Favorite] Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones - "The Laws of Gods and Men") (HBO) Dinklage is a former winner (2011, in a Paul-less year) and has a wonderful submission episode. Don't count him out.
Mandy Patinkin (Homeland - "Gerontion") (Showtime) I had to remind myself that Patinkin hasn't won this for Homeland already. The clock is ticking for how much longer Homeland gets nominations, so this may be the last chance for the former Emmy winner (Chicago Hope, 1995).
Josh Charles (The Good Wife - "Hitting the Fan") (CBS) I know two things about The Good Wife this season: 1) Charles is at the center of the biggest moment. 2) "Hitting the Fan" is one of the most lauded episodes of any show this season. I may be underestimating his chances.
Jon Voight (Ray Donovan - "Fite Nite") (Showtime) While he is a living legend, I don't see that carrying him any further than a nomination. He hasn't won the other two times he's been nominated for Emmys for different projects.
Jim Carter (Downton Abbey - "Episode One") (PBS) I'm confused how he is here still.
Biggest Snub: Dean Norris (Breaking Bad) (AMC) Oh boy. There's a lot of guys you can go with and be right. Charles Dance on Game of Thrones made a character out of nothing. Noah Emmerich continues to be a wonderful counter-point to the leads on The Americans. John Slattery continues to do fine work on Mad Men. Michael Kenneth Williams and Jeffrey Wright would be nominated if Emmy favor for Boardwalk Empire hadn't diminished. For me, it's Dean Norris, playing Hank: the only wholly good guy left in the Breaking Bad world. He was every bit as good as Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks in their nomination years and it's kind of baffling that, with all the Breaking Bad love this year, he couldn't land a nomination too.
[My Favorite] Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad - "Ozymandias") (AMC) Last year's winner. Chose "Ozymandias", which is as good a submission episode as you're going to find.
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife - "The Last Call") (CBS) Her twelfth nomination and fifth for The Good Wife. Her only Emmy win came back in 1995 for Cybil though. If any season of The Good Wife gave her the material to win this is this one, I hear.
Lena Headey (Game of Thrones - "The Lion and the Rose") (HBO) The nomination shows that Emmy voters are paying attention. How far will that take her?
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men - "The Strategy") (AMC) They love nominating her, that's for sure (fifth nomination in as many years).
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey - "Episode Eight") (PBS) 8 career nominations. 3 wins (2 for this role). Two Oscars. Three Golden Globes. She's Maggie Smith. That's not enough for the win anymore here though.
Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey - "Episode Four") (PBS) And if Maggie Smith isn't winning, what chance does anyone else from Downton Abbey have?
Biggest Snub: Annet Mehendru (The Americans) (FX) While not as deep as some of the other drama categories, there's still plenty of unrecognized talent in this field. For me, it was between Betsy Brandt on Breaking Bad and Mehendru. Ultimately, I went with Mehendru because she had more to do and doesn't bring me down with Michael J Fox Show memories.
[My Favorite] Jim Parsons (The Normal Heart) (HBO) When the movie first came out, I heard it described that "they added a speech for Jim Parsons that will get him another Emmy" and I'm yet to hear someone dispute that.
Matt Bomer (The Normal Heart) (HBO) It's a matter of whether they vote for Parsons, the scene stealer, or Bomer for the physical transformation. Neither are wrong choices.
Joe Mantello (The Normal Heart) (HBO) He has at least one superb speech and if that's what the voters notice, then he can win.
Colin Hanks (Fargo) (FX) This is the best I've ever seen Colin Hanks. It's not as flashy a role as the leads, but it's a damn effective one.
Martin Freeman (Sherlock - "His Last Vow") (PBS) Sheen is a co-lead and his star has never been brighter.
Alfred Molina (The Normal Heart) (HBO) This is a classic case of a nomination pile on. I'd go with someone like Taylor Kitsch here for a fourth Normal Heart nomination, but Molina is the bigger name.
Biggest Snub: Keith Carradine (Fargo) (FX) I know, I know. Doesn't Fargo have enough nominations as it is? I agree. Keith Carradine had the finest moment in the finale though, talking to Greta (and possibly setting up season 2). I had to include him here.
[Note: I plan to see The Normal Heart Sunday, so I reserve the write to update this after watching it. I'll be listing my final picks Monday anyway]
[My Favorite] Allison Tolman (Fargo) (FX) She could win for Lead Actress and was the heart and soul of the series. It would be criminal for her to lose.
Julia Roberts (The Normal Heart) (HBO) Maybe the Normal Heart love will transfer to the woman in the field.
Ellen Burstyn (Flowers in the Attic) (Lifetime) She's kind of a big deal. If this wasn't a Lifetime movie, I'd bump up her chances.
Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Coven) (FX) People not named Jessica Lange haven't had much luck on American Horror Story. If one will break through, I'll go with the Oscar winner.
Frances Conroy (American Horror Story: Coven) (FX) If not the Oscar winner, I'll go with the one who has collected Emmy nominations.
Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Coven) (FX) If not the Oscar winner or Emmy nominee, I'll go with Stella getting her groove back.
Biggest Snub: Kate Walsh (Fargo) (FX) It was a small role, so I understand her not getting the nomination, but Walsh did a lot of subtle, hilarious work on Fargo as the widow Hess.
[Note: I plan to see The Normal Heart Sunday, so I reserve the write to update this after watching it. I'll be listing my final picks Monday anyway]
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