For the second year in a row, I posted some predictions about the next year's Emmys hours after the ceremonies ended. I was half right last year. Let's see how I did this time.
Prediction: Modern Family is dethroned and doesn't pull another 6 supporting acting nominations.
Reasoning: Other than Frasier, Comedies don't dominate for this long, and, any fan of comedy knows that the competition is too stiff for this dominance to last.
Reality: Modern Family Certainly took a hit. It lost a supporting actor nomination and got no acting wins. It still won for best comedy though. (+.5)
Prediction: Dennis Quaid pulls a lead acting nomination for Las Vegas.
Reasoning: CBS was trying to do a prestige drama and got a bonafide movie star as the centerpiece. This seemed like a Kevin Spacey lock.
Reality: The show had disastrous ratings and didn't last. It also tried to serve too many masters and failed to be prestige or procedural. (+0)
Prediction: Homeland doesn't repeat.
Reasoning: The show was a tight-rope act throughout its entire first season. There was no way it could keep that up.
Reality: At the beginning, it seemed like it might but the second half of the season was too rough and the competition too much. (+1)
Prediction: Parks and Recreation makes it's way back into the Best Comedy field.
Reasoning: True, it fell out of the Best Comedy field in 2012, but it had two writing nominations to go with Pohler's annual recognition, so it seemed likely to make its way back in when the shiny-newness of Veep or Girls went away.
Reality: It regressed even more in a move that firms my belief that the Emmys are unreliable (duh). (+0)
Prediction: No return in sight for the big 4 networks in the best Drama field.
Reasoning: None of the pilots looks good enough to break back in and none of the shows already on were jumping back in.
Reality: Totally correct there, although that was a gimme. (+1)
Prediction: Parker Posey pulls a guest acting nomination for her work on Louie.
Reasoning: Watch "Daddy's Girlfriend Part 2" and tell me she doesn't belong there.
Reality: They went for Oscar winner Melissa Leo from Louie instead. A fine pick, but the wrong one. (+0)
Prediction: Only one show from HBO lands a best Comedy nom,
Reasoning: I figured that they would tire of Girls or Veep wouldn't improve on its ok first season and would lose the newness factor.
Reality: Girls and Veep both improved on their first seasons and kept their places in the field, as they should. (+0)
Prediction: A Greg Daniels run Office returns to the best Comedy field.
Reasoning: With an end in sight and a return from the man that made it great for so long, The Office looked ready to put it together enough to earn one more look.
Reality: The show never got it together and squeaked by with a Writing nomination for the finale. (+0)
Prediction: Breaking Bad takes a big step back in nominations.
Reasoning: If the 4th season couldn't win I appeared likely that Breking Bad would begin regressing like Mad Men was. Also, season 5.1 wasn't as good (I think all 8 episodes had aired by then).
Reality: Totally miscalled this. It won for Outstanding Drama and stayed about even (maybe gained. I haven't counted) in the nominations and is the buzziest 5th season show ever. (+0)
Prediction: ...might as well try this again. I watch at least one of the Mini-Series/TV Movie nominations.
Reasoning: I can't keep avoiding these forever.
Reality: Apparently, I can. I came close to watching Top of the Lake but didn't watch it. (+0)
For those of you counting at home, that means I scored a 2.5/10 which is pretty horrible. Honestly, I'm more surprised by the 5.5 last year than the 2.5 this year. I'd expect the latter to be the case more often as I do these more.
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