2013 Emmy Preview: Variety Series

Good. Back to some shows with some continuity that I've seen before. I may do a better job here, especially since it's a rather predictable group.

Creative Arts Emmys
Mini-Series/TV Movie
 
A quick run down of how this works: I've ordered each category from most to least likely to win, in my eyes. I've also noted my personal favorite to win and who I think was the most worthy overlooked potential nominee for most categories.

Variety Series
[My Favorite] The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - Seeking its -insane- 11th win in a row. It was an election year too. Even if you want to suggest the Jon Oliver hosting could somehow hurt it, those episodes count for next year. I feel good about this pick.
The Colbert Report - For nearly as long as The Daily Show has been dominant, The Colbert Report has been chomping at the bits. If any show dethrones the champ, it's gotta be this one.
Real Time with Bill Maher - It's been nominated every year since 2005. Eventually it may break through.
Saturday Night Live - Personally, I thought this was a strong season. It's hard to ever entirely count out a nearly 40 year veteran.
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon - He may be NBC's golden boy, but I'm yet to see anything to suggest he'll leapfrog over the other potential suitors for this award.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! - His show is such a quiet success story. I think they are happy with the nomination.
Biggest Oversight: Portlandia - It's absurd that this has yet to be nominated here. It is clearly one of the six best in this category, if not the best.

Hosting
Tom Bergeron (Danicng with the Stars) - I'll almost always pick the previous year's winner to repeat.
[My Favorite] Ryan Seacrest (American Idol) - I'm fairly surprised to find out that he hasn't won yet (Nominated 2008-2013). Maybe they'll throw him a bone.
Betty White (Betty White's Off Their Rockers) - The Betty White supernova of love seems to be cooling off. Perhaps one last hurrah is in order?
Heidi Klum & Tim Gunn (Project Runway) Ooo, two hosts. I didn't even think that's allowed. Maybe that's their secret weapon.
Anthony Bourdain (The Taste) - I see this guy's name everywhere and I'm never sure why.
Cat Deeley (So You Think You Can Dance) - She is a repeat nominee (2011, 2012, 2013).
Biggest Oversight: RuPaul Charles - RuPaul's Drag Race - This is bullshit. She He RuPaul is an awesome host.

Directing - Variety Series
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - I can't think of a reason for it not to win.
The Colbert Report - As with everything in this area, it's perpetually The Daily Show's to lose, then it's the Colbert Report's.
Late Show with David Letterman - The show used to dominate there categories, so I always see it as a dark horse.
[My Favorite] Portlandia - Oh, I see. They'll nominate it for Directing but not for series.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! - Again, happy to be nominated.
Biggest Oversight: Saturday Night Live - This show's success is largely one of great direction. Being live does that.

Reality Competition
The Amazing Race - Since the category was created in 2003, The Amazing Race has won all but once (in 2010). I don't know why it is so dominate, but it is.
Top Chef - The one years The Amazing Race lost it was to Top Chef, so I'd say that makes this the most likely challenger.
The Voice - Super popular. Slightly improved structure. A lot of talent in the judges' chairs. I could see this sneaking in a win the way American Idol never could.
[My Favorite] Project Runway - It's been nominated every year since 2005.
So You Think You Can Dance - It keeps sticking around in the category, but I don't see it winning.
Dancing with the Stars - The host win was inspiring last year, but I'd think if the show couldn't win in its prime, it isn't likely to start now.
Biggest Oversight: RuPaul's Drag Race - This is way more original and entertaining that most of the actual nominees.

Writing - Variety Series
[My Favorite] The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - Another category that The Daily Show has been regularly dominating. On an election year, I'd be foolish to expect any other show to win.
The Colbert Report - This has been able to sneak a couple wins (2008, 2010) over The Daily Show so I'm keeping it as the dark horse.
Portlandia - Getting nominated is half the battle. The other half, is, of course, beating the other nominees.
Real Time with Bill Maher - One of these days it'll win something, right?
Saturday Night Live - It's so hit or miss and I expect more people to focus on the miss.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! - First sneak a win one year, then I'll start to consider it a contender.
Biggest Oversight: Conan - Oh, the other show to win during Comedy Central's reign of terror? That would be Late Night with Conan O'Brien (2007).