2013 Emmy Preview: Mini-Series/TV Movie

I want to make it clear that I have seen none of these. I didn't even catch one in passing. Even the ones that I was like "I'm totally going to find a way to watch that" I haven't even come close to watching. In short, all my selections here are based off secondhand accounts, speculation, and best of all "I like that title/actor/channel". I hate skipping by this, so I will still cover it, but really, MY guesses won't be all that good.

Creative Arts Emmys

A quick run down of how this works: I've ordered each category from most to least likely to win, in my eyes. I've also noted my personal favorite to win and who I think was the most worthy overlooked potential nominee for most categories.

Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Behind the Candelabra - If you are a TV movie that plays at Cannes, I think you've reached lock status.
Top of the Lake - I hear great things about this. It's had a lot of buzz despite being on Sundance Channel.
Phil Spector - I don't bet against HBO in this category unless it's another HBO nominee or Downton Abbey.
American Horror Story: Asylum - I think it was seen as clever and fresh the first year. Season 2 I expect to lose some support.
Political Animals - It was a noble effort but USA had to cancel this "mini-series" which hurts its overall chances.
The Bible - I really doubt it. Nice to see History Channel staying in the category though.
Biggest Oversight: The Girl - I heard this was very comparable to the Hitchcock movie that did go to theaters so I assume that it has the caliber to belong here.

Lead Actor - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra) - Someone from this is going to win and when in doubt, pick Liberace.
Matt Damon (Behind the Candelabra) - But if Douglas doesn't get the win, its Damon's to lose.
Al Pacino (Phil Spector) - He won for You Don't Know Jack.
Benedict Cumberbatch (Parade's End) -British and doesn't feature films. He could win for that.
Toby Jones (The Girl) -Any time that your point of comparison is Anthony Hopkins, your odds are diminished.
Biggest Oversight: Dominic West (The Hour) - My reason? McNulty.

Lead Actress - Mini-Series/TV Movie
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Asylum) - She won supporting actress last year and continues to be the stand out on the show. No reason to assume she can't pull a Jon Cryer and come away with gold.
[My Favorite] Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake) - Maybe they give her a win here as a makeup call for all the missed opportunities on Mad Men. Hey, maybe that would mean Jon Hamm will get a win for Clear History next year.
Helen Mirren (Phil Spector) - The Queen does not go down without a fight. Just watch Red.
Sigourney Weaver (Political Animals) - Again, solid effort by USA, but doesn't have a fighter's chance.
Laura Linney (The Big C: Hereafter) - As I see it, if she couldn't win for the much meatier work in the series form of the show, I don't see it happening here either.
Biggest Oversight: Rebecca Hall (Parade's End) - I like Rebecca Hall and she was the only potential nominee I recognized who does good work.

Supporting Actor - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Scott Bakula (Behind the Candelanbra) - I assume this movie is sweeping the night.
James Cromwell (American Horror Story: Asylum) - That's a big name, which immediately puts him in play.
John Benjamin Hickey (The Big C: Hereafter) - At this point, I'm blindly guessing.
Peter Mullan (Top of the Lake) - I have no idea who this is.
Zachary Quinto (American Horror Story: Asylum) - I figure that if someone is winning from this show, it's Cromwell, not Spock.
Biggest Oversight: Rob Lowe (Behind the Candelabra)- I saw one picture of him from this and determined that he should win.

Supporting Actress - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Ellen Burstyn (Political Animals) - When in doubt, choose the Oscar winner.
Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Asylum) - People may forget that Lange moved to lead, see AHS and vote blindly.
Imelda Staunton (The Girl) - Again, I'm totally guessing here.
Alfre Woodard (Steel Magnolias) - They remade this?
Charlotte Rampling (Restless) - Absolutely no idea what this is.
Biggest Oversight: Adelaide Clemens (Parade's End) - I want to use this space to say, see Rectify. She is fantastic in it. I'm sure she's good here too.

Directing - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Behind the Candelabra - As I said. This played at Cannes!
Top of The Lake - Notice some similarities to writing and the overall Mini-Series/Movie award?
Phil Spector - HBO movie. It always stands a chance.
The Girl - See Spector, Phil. For god's sake, this one is about a director.
Ring of Fire - Is this a Johnny Cash thing?
Biggest Oversight: uhhhhh. I can't even make up a guess.

Writing - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Behind the Candelabra - Cannes, dammit!
Top of the Lake - Maybe, if there wasn't Candelabra.
Phil Spector - HBO, dammit.
The Hour - Uh, this is an outright series. Just because it's British doesn't mean it's not.
Parade's End - Well, it has Benedict Cumberbatch and Rebecca Hall in it, so it can't be all bad.
Biggest Oversight: The Girl - Because I feel like it.