Now, I realize the Emmys are meaningless or at the very least not a final say in any matter, but they are fun and when they get it right, I feel good. This year is looking like a strange year in that I'm not sure what's happening in a lot of the categories.
As a casual observer* may notice, this year, the Emmys have come with little fanfare from me. I forgot to post any kind of initial thoughts of the nominees and couldn't find any sort of list to compile from previous years. Maybe that means by next year I won't feel the need to say anything at all about the awards (doubtful).
*Let's be frank. Do I have anything but casual observers on this blog?
This year though, I still have the wherewithal to at least make a few picks. Since the Creative Arts Emmys are a week before, there's a few picks I'd like to post now. I want to make it clear that even more so than the hit or miss nature of my Emmy night picks, the following selections are major shots in the dark. If I get a third of these correct I'll be pleased, but I think it's clear that the point of this is more about the why of my picks than the what.
A quick run down of how this works: I've ordered each category from most to least likely to win, in my eyes. I've also noted my personal favorite to win and who I think was the most worthy overlooked potential nominee for most categories.
Reality Program
Undercover Boss - Last year's winner looks like the favorite to repeat due to inertia.
Deadliest Catch - Former winner, although that win did come the year it featured the tribute to the cast member who died, I believe.
Shark Tank - I've never met a person who watches this, but I think its nearly-reality competition setup might be enough to sneak a win.
Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives - I've never heard of this show so I don't know where to place it. A good show has won before (Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution in 2010) but I don't think this has the same brand appeal.
[My Favorite] Mythbusters - The nerd's choice. Sadly, I think the buzz has quieted too much on this.
Antiques Roadshow - By far the most nominated series (every year since 05), logic would say it can't possibly go an Angela Lansbury amount of time without a win, right?
Variety Special
The Kennedy Center Honors - This has dominated over the past 4 years. That should be more than enough to earn preemptive favorite status.
Mel Brooks Strikes Back: With Mel Brooks and Alan Yentob - Historically, who a Hollywood icon has a special, he or she wins a lot (see Don Rickles - 2008, Tony Bennett - 2007, Elaine Stritch - 2004)
[My Favorite] Louis C.K.: Oh My God - Emmy voters love Louie and who is to say how far he can ride that.
12-12-12: The Concert for Sandy Relief - Emotionally, it's hard to vote against a relief concert but so far, only 2002's America: A Tribute to Heroes has come away with a win.
Saturday Night Live Weekend Update Thursday - As much fun as these are, they never win.
[My Favorite] Justin Timberlake (Saturday Night Live) - He is a two time winner for hosting SNL and this was a strong episode for him.
Louis C.K. (Saturday Night Live) - Again, Emmys love Louie right now. I don't think his hosting was a great showcase for him, but when has bad acting ever stopped someone from winning here.
Bob Newhart (The Big Bang Theory) - It isn't unheard of for this to be the "TV Icon returns" award (See Tim Conway - 2008, Gene Wilder - 2003, Mel Brooks 1999).
Nathan Lane (Modern Family) - Modern Family keeps getting nominees here. Never a win. And, with a drop in nominations for the series, I doubt this will swing in its favor.
Bobby Cannavale (Nurse Jackie) - He is a former winner in this category for Will & Grace in 2005. I don't watch This show, so I can't say I know where to place him.
Will Forte (30 Rock) - 30 Rock has 14 nominations in this category over 7 years and only one win.
Guest Actress - Comedy
[My Favorite] Melissa McCarthy (Saturday Night Live) - This is a tough to predict category, but people love her, she was a great host, and has an Emmy already for a much more questionable performance.
Melissa Leo (Louie) - Honest to god, I thought Parker Posey was an absolute lock not only to get a nomination but to win this for her work on Louie. Leo was great as well though and I won't pretend her Oscar won't influence voters.
Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live) - Hey, she got a lot of nominations when she was a regular on SNL. Never a win though, so I'm not expecting that to change.
Elaine Stritch (30 Rock) - Former winner here and perennial nominee who got the rare dramatic scene in 30 Rock. Having said that, I'm thinking of moving her up on the list.
Dot-Marie Jones (Glee) - Another one of those repeat nominees who probably missed her chance.
Molly Shannon (Enlightened) - I've heard nothing but rave reviews about this season and Shannon in it. I can't see the Emmys appreciating what the show does, sadly.
Guest Actor - Drama
Michael J Fox (The Good Wife) - Former winner on a different show (Rescue Me - 2009) and a regular nominee with a shelf full of Emmys in comedy (Lead Actor 1986, 1987, 1988, 2000). Most of all, I think he is back on people's radar due to his return to series this year in the Michael J. Fox Show.
Rupert Friend (Homeland) - I could see this episode winning everything it touches.
Nathan Lane (The Good Wife) - He does get a lot of nominees for guest roles (1995, 1998, 2011, and twice this year). Yet to get a win.
Dan Bucatinsky (Scandal) - A buzzy show that I don't think will translate to Emmy success.
Harry Hamlin (Mad Men) - 31 Acting nominations for Mad Men over 6 seasons and not a single win. I'm not betting for it to break that streak now that it is in the twilight of its Emmy glory.
[My Favorite] Robert Morse (Mad Men) - At least Hamlin is something new. Morse has proven that he can't get Emmy love even though he did have a much more useful season this year.
Guest Actress - Drama
Jane Fonda (The Newsroom) - I feel like the words "Jane Fonda" are probably enough to seal this.
[My Favorite] Linda Cardellini (Mad Men) - Then again, maybe it'll take a guest acting category for Mad Men to finally sneak in an acting win.
Diana Rigg (Game of Thrones) - Maybe they don't see GoT as the Peter Dinklage show.
Margo Martindale (The Americans) - I have no reason to think she won't win other than the complete lack of support the show has elsewhere in the nominations.
Joan Cusack (Shameless) - She keeps getting nominated (although she really is a supporting character) but the Emmys would rather pretend the show doesn't exist.
There's a lot of other categories here. Quite frankly, I couldn't even fake making a pick for Outstanding Sound Editing in a Multi-Camera Series, so I won't try.
More in the coming days...
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