Creative Arts Emmys
Mini-Series/TV Movie
Variety Series
A quick run down of how this works: I've ordered each category from most to least likely to win, in my eyes. I've also noted my personal favorite to win and who I think was the most worthy overlooked potential nominee for most categories.
Drama Series
Homeland - I have no idea what way this is going. If there was a year to expect a surprise winner here, this is it. That said, I'm not going to bet against last year's winner after it picked up acting nominations. I may not even remotely agree with this winning for such an inconsistent season, but it does seem most likely.
Breaking Bad - There is a groundswell of buzz for this show going into it's final "half" season. It's kept its nomination haul from last year. It is unfathomable to think seasons 3 or 4 couldn't win but 5.1 could, but that's the way it works.
[My Favorite] Game of Thrones - Sure, it's a genre show in its third season. It did gain a supporting actress nomination for Emilia Clarke which shocked and pleased me to see. The lack of Directing nominations hurts. This show is still a dark horse.
Mad Men - It still has a decent nomination haul and there's a chance that last year's loss was a fluke. There is the fact that no drama has never one this 5 times working against it and I think voters are tiring of it, despite still being one of the best shows on TV.
House of Cards - It's possible that it wins. It's the only unknown commodity in the field. The competition is so still though.
Downtown Abbey - If it didn't win last year, it won't now. This show was red hot last year. Now it's just another good show on TV.
Biggest Oversight: Rectify - I only recently caught up on the series and it was so good. It's a subtle series and I love how it is in no hurry. I thought about Hannibal too because it is such a pretty show or Shameless, but it is more of a comedy.
Lead Actor - Drama
Damian Lewis - Homeland ("Q&A") - He may have not had the best season of anyone nominated, but in a world of submission episodes dictating the voting, he has the best showcase of anyone with "Q&A". This category will certainly indicate how Best Drama will go.
[My Favorite] Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad ("Say My Name") - Great submission episode. He dominated this category for 3 years. It wouldn't shock me if voters aren't done with him. He'd deserve it, even if it is boring.
Jeff Daniels - The Newsroom ("We Just Decided To") - Can one speech win an Emmy. He chose the pilot episode with starts with his rebuttal to why American is/isn't the greatest country on Earth that people keep discovering and loving. Assume that if he pulls off the upset that that is why.
Jon Hamm - Mad Men ("In Care of") - He should have a win by now, but I've given up on assuming he will ever get one. The late season can't help voters either.
Kevin Spacey - House of Cards ("Chapter 1") - Again, I don't know how this show will play with voters. Spacey is a movie star gracing TV with his presence and that cannot be ignored.
Hugh Bonneville - Downton Abbey ("Episode Five") - He is the only nominee I've heard no one talk about.
Biggest Oversight: Aden Young - Rectify - What he does in this show is so understated that I can't assume the Emmy voters would ever notice. He certainly belongs with those listed above.
Lead Actress - Drama
[My Favorite] Claire Danes - Homeland ("Q&A") - This is an absolute lock. No question about it.
Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men ("The Better Half") - Danes will win, so who I pick second doesn't matter. I still like to believe Moss can win one of these days. Sadly, she didn't have enough to do this season for a lead win.
Robin Wright - House of Cards ("Chapter 10") - Only is House of Cards is an Emmy sensation.
Connie Britton - Nashville ("Pilot") - Only if voters use this as a makeup call for FNL.
Vera Farminga - Bates Motel ("Fist You Dream, The You Die") - She's a former Oscar nominee with a $100 million movie in theaters. That cannot be ignored. Remember Melissa Mccarthy in 2011?
Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey ("Episode One") - Downton Abbey still has some supporters left.
Kerry Washington - Scandal ("Happy Birthday Mr. President") - The show's buzz got her the nomination. I can't see it doing any more than that.
Biggest Oversight: Emmy Rossum - Shameless - Of the shows I have seen, she is absolutely the most unjustly overlooked. Now if Shameless ever accepts that it is a comedy, she could get a nomination and a win. I also want to say that I want to see Orphan Black so much so that I can experience Tatiana Maslany's performance that I've heard so much about.
Supporting Actor - Drama
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad ("Buyout") - Won the past two times he's been eligible. Submitting as supporting despite being a co-lead. It's his to lose.
[My Favorite] Mandy Patinkin - Homeland ("The Choice") - Even if Homeland doesn't maintain its dominance, Patinkin has a great shot of winning. In a show of great performances, at time's his was the best. Thankfully, he used "The Choice" as his submission. Seriously, look at his face at the end of the episode and tell me he isn't the best choice for this.
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones ("Second Sons") - Former winner. Possibly his best season yet. I think people are underestimating GoT this year and if that's so, he could win this.
Jonathan Banks - Breaking Bad ("Say My Name") - It is so hard to get people to appreciate what he does on this show when there are so many showier performances. I'm happy he even got nominated.
Bobby Cannavale - Boardwalk Empire ("Sunday Best") - I don't watch the show so I can't say that I know how good he was in it. I'm still putting him lower on the list.
Jim Carter - Downton Abbey ("Episode Six") - I'm calling it. This is a down year for the Abbey.
Biggest Oversight: Mads Mikkelsen - Hannibal - He is playing the same role that won Anthony Hopkins an Oscar and excelling at it. That alone should make him worth considering.
Supporting Actress - Drama
Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad ("Fifty-One") - I honestly think Emmy voters will notice that this isn't the Walt and Jesse show.
Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey ("Episode One") - As much as people love Maggie Smith if it's her versus the field, I'm picking the field.
Emilia Clarke - Game of Thrones ("And Now His Watch is Ended") - She has a great submission episode. Even with limited screen time (the downfall of most actors hoping for awards attention on GoT), she can pull off a win.
Morena Baccarin - Homeland ("State of Independence") - The gap between Mandy Patinkin as third fiddle and Baccarin as fourth fiddle is a gaping chasm that will be hard for her to overcome.
[My Favorite] Christina Hendricks - Mad Men ("A Tale of Two Cities") - I've given up assuming Mad Men will even be appreciated in the acting fields.
Christine Baranski - The Good Wife ("The Seven Day Rule") - She keeps getting nominations but does anyone actually think she's ever going to win?
Biggest Oversight: Monica Potter - Parenthood - She played the cancer card. That should've at least been worth a nomination. I really wanted to point out Adelaide Clemens - Rectify too. She was killed by being on a low profile show with a short season and wasn't even important in half the episodes. The moments she did get were stellar though.
Directing - Drama
House of Cards - "Chapter 1" - Directed by David Fincher, like Martin Scorsese for Boardwalk Empire two years ago, should be enough to secure a win.
Boardwalk Empire - "Margate Sands" - It has won this the past two years so I can't count it out.
[My Favorite] Breaking Bad - "Gliding All Over" - I'm feeling a growing Breaking Bad storm coming. This is also a super pretty episode.
Homeland - "Q&A" - This feels low as my fourth choice but that's how it is playing out when I look at it. This is a close field.
Downton Abbey - "Episode Four" - I haven't seen this so I don't know at all how to place this, so by default, I'm picking this last.
Biggest Oversight: Mad Men "The Crash" - I know what you're thinking: "How did no Mad Men episodes get nominated? That's a bad sign for the greater Best Drama chances for Mad Men and more importantly a horrible choice resulting from voter fatigue. I'd've picked this over virtually any of this year's nominees.
Writing - Drama
Homeland - "Q&A" - I think people will only see as far as the interrogation scenes of this episode and for that reason, I'm calling it the frontrunner.
Breaking Bad - "Say My Name" - Strong as hell episodes with a great opening scene. If Breaking Bad is a runaway, I think this is the one that benefits in this category.
[My Favorite] Game of Thrones - "The Rains of Castamere" - One of the most effective episodes of a show all season. If emotions run high over the end, this could sneak a win.
Breaking Bad - "Dead Freight" - This should be here for directing but I'll accept writing. The train heist is masterful but I don't know if the writing of it will be appreciated as much as the direction.
Downton Abbey - "Episode Four" - Again, I haven't seen the show, so I can't say where this belongs so I will choose the known quantity over the unknown.
Biggest Oversight: Mad Men - "In Care Of" - If you are looking for the biggest indicator that Mad Men will not repeat, it would be the fact that the best written show on TV, that had 13 writing nominations in its first five seasons got completely snubbed this year.
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