Creative Arts Emmys
Mini-Series/TV Movie
Variety Series
Drama Series
A quick run down of how this works: I've ordered each category from most to least likely to win, in my eyes. I've also noted my personal favorite to win and who I think was the most worthy overlooked potential nominee for most categories.
Comedy Series
30 Rock - Former three time winner (2007-2009). It picked up nominations this year and had a fantastic final season. Given falling favor for Modern Family, I see this getting a goodbye win like Everybody Loves Raymond (2005).
Modern Family - Reigning three time winner with a season that wasn't noticeably worse than the one before it. The snub for writing is not shocking based on previous years but only one Directing nomination and no nomination for two time winner Eric Stonestreet (2010, 2012) leads me to wonder if Emmy fatigue is finally setting in.
[My Favorite] Louie - This show has been picking up steady recognition, finally getting a series recognition this year for its excellent third season. The only thing hurting its chances is that veteran series tend to not win on their first nominations.
Veep - This picked up a lot of nominations over last year. Perhaps I'm underestimating its chances. HBO has had an upward battle here only winning once for Sex and the City (2001) in six attempts (1999-2004) and no wins for The Larry Sanders Show (1993-1998) and Curb Your Enthusiasm (2002-2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012).
Girls - See my reasoning for Veep and as much as I like Girls, I think it is one of those "if it doesn't win early, it won't win ever" shows like Glee...god, I hate comparing Girls to Glee.
The Big Bang Theory - I could be wrong but this show will never will. Sheer ratings force demands the nomination but that rarely forces a win.
Biggest Oversight: Parks and Recreation - I still cannot explain how it got a nomination for best series (2011) and fell out of the field. This continues to be one of the 2 or 3 best comedies on TV. Thankfully, the others in the shortlist did make it in the field.
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock ("A Goon's Deed in a Weary World") - He's absolutely the frontrunner. This is a great submission episode for a two-time winner (2008, 2009) and I'm predicting a big year for 30 Rock.
[My Favorite] Louie C.K. - Louie ("Daddy's Girlfriend Part 1") - This would require beating some heavyweights in the category. With last year's winner (Jon Cryer) not getting nominated, that leaves no reigning winner to combat and between Louie and Oh My God! he has racked up the nominations. This would still be an upset, but maybe not as big of one as it seems.
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory ("The Habitation Configuration") - Another two-time winner (2010, 2011). You can never count him out.Jason Bateman - Arrested Development ("Flight of the Phoenix") - The lone major nominee for an, in my opinion, unfairly criticized season. The only way he is winning though is if voters get blinded by the bright lights of Hollywood like they did for Melissa McCarthy in 2011.
Don Cheadle - House of Lies ("Hostile Takeover") - If the movie star allure was going to get him a win, it would've happened last year. Now, he's just a big name on a mediocre show.
Matt LeBlanc - Episodes ("The Affair") - He didn't win in 2011. Most people don't know what Episodes is. And, there's a year gap between nominations. In short, it won't happen.
Biggest Oversight: Jake Johnson - New Girl - In this age of ensemble comedies, this is actually a fairly light field. Johnson was good, but I don't know if I'd call him a lead. His supporting work is better than anything Cheadle or LeBlanc has did though.
Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep ("Running") - She won last year and the show is gaining momentum. It's hard to see her losing.
Tina Fey - 30 Rock ("Hogcock!/Last Lunch") - She's won before (2008) which seems low. With 30 Rock looking to have a comeback year with the Emmys, I could see her returning to the winners' circle.
[My Favorite] Lena Dunham - Girls ("Bad Friend") - Of all the hats she wears (producer, writer, director, actor), this is the one I think she's most likely to be recognized with a win. Stiff competition though.
Amy Poehler - Parks & Recreation ("Leslie and Ben") - If the world was a fair place, she'd have a shelf of these by now. At this point, I'd be happy with one.
Laura Dern - Enlightened ("All I Ever Wanted") - Voters noticed enough to give her a nomination. I haven't been able to watch this show yet but from what I hear, it you be a shame if she didn't win, but I doubt that's in the cards.
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie ("Luck of the Drawing") - Sure, she won before (2010). That seems more like a fluke now than a sign it'll happen again. This is such a strong field though, I could see anyone here winning and it would feel reserved.
Biggest Oversight: Zooey Deschanel - New Girl - I was sad although not surprised to see her fall from the field. She is doing good work on New Girl and it is one of the better comedies on TV.
Supporting Actor - Comedy
Ed O'Neill - Modern Family ("Bringing Up Baby") - No Eric Stonestreet makes this tough to call. I could go with Burrell, but I'm going to keep betting on the spread the wealth theory for this cast.
Ty Burrell - Modern Family ("Mistery Date") - He has won before (2011) and is perhaps the least problematic character on the show which means he's probably the favorite if I was being logical. I hated his submission episode though. I don't have it in me to pick him to win.
[My Favorite] Adam Driver - Girls ("It's Back") - He was so good in this season that I have to believe he stands a chance to win. His submission episode could polarize voters though.
Bill Hader - Saturday Night Live ("Host: Seth McFarlane") - It's his final season and he was nominated last year. That's about all I see working in his favor.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family ("The Wow Factor") - He's been nominated ever year he's been eligible (2010-2013) and never won. I used to think he was too subtle to win. Now I think he's too whiny (the way he's written).
Tony Hale - Veep ("Running") - Sheer visibility between Veep and Arrested Development and good work on both surely got him nominated. I don't think there's enough for a win.
Biggest Oversight: Nick Offerman - Parks & Recreation - How in god's name has he never been nominated and in turn won? This is embarrassing. While we're on the subject of Parks & Rec, where's Chris Pratt's nomination? Ridiculous.
Supporting Actress - Comedy
Sofia Vergara - Modern Family ("Yard Sale") - I've thought she was the frontrunner every year (2010-2013) and she's yet to win. One of these days I have to be right. Don't I?
Julie Bowen - Modern Family ("My Hero") - I like Julie Bowen a lot. I have for years. I don't get how she keeps winning this (2011, 2012). I shouldn't bet against her.
Anna Chlumsky - Veep ("First Response") - If voters are looking for another way to honor Veep, my bet would be by giving My Girl a win.
[My Favorite] Jane Krakowski - 30 Rock ("Hogcock/Last Lunch") - She's been nominated before (2009-2011) taking a break last year. I would not be at all surprised to see her win.
Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory ("The Fish Guts Displacement") - This is The Jim Parsons Show.
Jane Lynch - Glee ("Feud") - She is a former winner (2010), but on a show that has seen better days
Merritt Wever - Nurse Jackie ("Teachable Moments") - Simply put, nope.
Biggest Oversight: I got this down to three and I'm proud I narrowed it down that much. Elisha Cuthbert (Happy Endings) is the stealth MVP of her show. Aubrey Plaza (Parks & Recreation) is the not so secret weapon on hers. Jenna Fischer (The Office) is the beating heart of her, especially since Steven Carrell left.
Directing - Comedy
Modern Family - "Arrested" - It has won this the past two years (2011, 2012), should've won in 2010, and is a show that lives and dies based on its direction. Even if Modern Family can't keep Best Comedy I see it winning here.
[My Favorite] Louie - "New Year's Eve" - I think Louie will win for something other than writing. It's just hard to say which category.
30 Rock - "Hogcock!/Last Lunch" - The only thing stopping be from calling this the dark horse is that 30 Rock hasn't won here ever despite multiple nominations from 2007-2011.
Girls - "On All Fours" - I think people value Lena Dunham more for writing and acting.
Glee - "Diva" - They should be happy to still be getting nominated.
Biggest Oversight: Parks & Recreation "Leslie and Ben" - I'm getting redundant but where is the love!? Parks and Rec has never been nominated here before. I shouldn't be surprised.
[My Favorite] Louie - "Daddy's Girlfriend Part 1" - He won last year for a far inferior episode last year. I'm betting that was no fluke.
30 Rock - "Last Lunch" - If it was a fluke last year, then I'm picking a the final episode of a former winner (2008, 2009) that had an all time great final season.
30 Rock - "Hogcock!" - ...or the penultimate episode of that series.
The Office - "Finale" - It won before (2007) and pilots and finales are favorites of Emmy voters.
Episodes - "Episode 209" - Raise your hand if you even know when this show was on.
Biggest Oversight: Parks & Recreation - "Leslie and Ben" - There's no history of P&R nominations for directing, but last year they pulled two writing nominations. Overlooking this is criminal.
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