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12/7
A Lady Gaga-esque pop star looks back on her life.
Working For It: It's fitting that in a year when Lady Gaga is arguably the front runner for the Lead Actress Oscar that an Oscar winning actress (Natalie Portman) has a movie in which she plays a pop star who is more than a little reminiscent of Lady Gaga.
Working Against It: The fact that I haven't heard more about Portman as an Oscar contender has me worried. This is the kind of movie I'd expect to be carried by the lead performance if nothing else. I guess I could be fine with this being another Neon Demon type of movie.
Interest Level: Curious
A mother struggles with the abrupt return of her drug-addicted son.
Working For It: Julia Roberts doesn't make an Oscar play all that often. I guess Money Monster and Secret in Their Eyes were failed attempts a couple years ago. She did get that nomination for August: Osage County back in 2013/14. There hasn't been much since that Erin Brokavich to Closer stretch almost 20 years ago. Well, this movie is getting a big push, and she's mostly working with recent Oscar nominee Lucas Hedges.
Working Against It: It isn't Ben is Back's fault, but Beautiful Boy stole some of its thunder. And the trailers paint this as more of an external threat from the drug dealers than the internal threat of the son's addiction. That interests me less.
Interest Level: Apathetic
A documentary about the rise and fall of Roger Ailes.
Working For It: Magnolia has released some of my favorite recent documentaries. If they decided to distribute this Ailes documentary, I'll assume there's more to it than the lazy "both sides" look or smear job. There are certainly enough chapters in Ailes' story to make a good documentary. I'm also intrigued by some of the people they get interviews with. Glenn Beck gets a couple comments in the trailer that suggests people might be more candid than expected.
Working Against It: If there isn't a good angle for a biographical documentary, it can get a little dull and paint-by-numbers.
Interest Level: Uninterested
A biopic about the feud between Mary Stuart and Elizabeth I.
Working For It: Don't over-complicate this. It's Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie duking it out in elaborate period costumes.
Working Against It: It's getting harder to pull off period pieces. They've been done with earnest authenticity for so long, that it's hard to take them seriously now. I mean, this is coming out the same year as The Favourite. It's hard to see how the silliness of The Favourite doesn't puncture some of the self-seriousness of Mary Queen of Scots. And, based on the trailers, Margot Robbie is giving the kind of performance that is so big and committed that it's also on the verge of parody.
Interest Level: Intrigued
A young black man spends a weekend in the woods with a bunch of white bros.
Working For It: This looks like a sort of indie Get Out. It's a lot of white people doing subtly racists things, starting in good humor, then potentially getting more malicious. As Get Out proved, there's great tension and commentary to be mined from this basic formula.
Working Against It: One of my concerns after the success of Get Out was that it made it look too easy. Get Out maintains an incredible tonal balance. Less skilled filmmakers trying to make the same kind of commentary can lose their balance very easily. Tyrel looks too immediately sinister and I don't know that I want to watch that for 2 hours.
Interest Level: Uninterested
12/14
A young woman joins the rebellion again a empire on wheels.
Working For It: This is being produced at a Lord of the Rings scale. Peter Jackson is a producer. It has a $100 million budget. I'm hoping that means there will be some big, loud thrills and a story worthy of multiple installments.
Working Against It: Well, maybe the international box office will save it. The movie has no identifiable stars. I'm sorry, but Hugo Weaving should never be the biggest name attached to a future tentpole unless there's serious sleeper potential to it. Steam-punk has never been a hit with domestic audiences. Just look at the disappointment of The Golden Compass. I can't get past the logistics of this "cities on wheels" idea. It sounds silly, but more importantly, it looks silly in the trailers. The advertising has been murky and without a hook. I think they capped the budget before it got to be a Valerian or John Carter-sized bust, but it's really hard to see how this movie comes out ahead.
Interest Level: Curious
An elderly man gets caught up transporting cocaine for the Mexican drug cartel.
Working For It: These December Clint Eastwood trailers are no joke. His American Sniper trailer is one of the best over the last decade at building hype and no doubt played a huge role in that movie becoming the highest grossing movie of 2014*. The Mule's trailer is similarly tense and will make this at least a quiet hit, I suspect. 88 year old Clint Eastwood is acting again as well as directing. He has a strong supporting cast with the likes of Bradley Cooper, Michael Pena, Dianne Wiest, and Laurence Fishburne. The movie is the only unknown left going into this awards season.
Working Against It: Personally, I'm getting tired of the trailer. More importantly, I haven't really loved any of Eastwood's movies.
Interest Level: Curious
*Just a quick reminder of how much of an outlier that is. In the last 20 years, only two movies that topped the box office for a given year didn't belong to a film franchise. One was How the Grinch Stole Christmas, which was tied to a beloved book. The other was American Sniper. There really is no modern comparison to the success of that movie, which is crazy, because the only thing I can remember about it now is that scene with the fake baby.
An animated Spider-Man movie about Spider-Men and Spider-Women from different dimensions teaming up.
Working For It: For months, I looked at this as Sony's last-ditch attempt to milk more out of their Spider-Man rights since loaning the live-action Spider-Man to the MCU. Now that the movie is finally getting screened, I'm hearing rapturous reviews. I've heard more than a few people call it the best animated movie of the year over the likes of Wreck-It Ralph 2 and Incredibles 2. That is impressive. The movie has a unique look and I like the sound of Jake Johnson voicing the OG Spider-Man, Peter Parker.
Working Against It: I honestly don't know why, but there's something about this movie that I'm having trouble getting hyped about. It must be an animation bias or that Sony hasn't made something good with its Spider-Man rights in over a decade. I will be seeing this, so I hope to be enlightened.
Interest Level: Intrigued
A pregnant woman tries to sort out her life after her fiancee goes to prison for a crime she doesn't believe he committed.
Working For It: This is Barry Jenkins' follow up to his Oscar-winning Best Picture Moonlight. He's adapting a James Baldwin novel, which sounds about right. He did so well with the cast of Moonlight that I'm encouraged by the number of people in this cast who I've never heard of. And I keep hearing Regina King getting singled out.
Working Against It: Dammit, I've tried to love Moonlight the way so many people I know do. I just don't feel it the way the other people did. It's an exquisitely made movie and Barry Jenkins is someone I'm rooting hard for. He's been a delight and thoughtful in every interview I've come across. I'm worried that the same thing will happen with Beale Street, despite my efforts.
Interest Level: Curious
12/21
The famous nanny returns decades later to help the Banks children again.
Working For It: Emily Blunt as Mary Poppins. Yes, yes, yes! The trailers have all tapped into the nostalgia perfectly, yet I still know very little about what it's about. Every December, there's a feel-good movie that hits me square in the jaw. This looks like that movie in 2018.
Working Against It: I think we're past questioning if Emily Blunt [or anyone] should try to take on Julie Andrews' iconic, star-making, Oscar-winning role. I think we're also past complaining about Rob Marshall directing. I feel like people have been after him ever since he won Best Picture for Chicago. Memoirs of a Geisha was very imperfect. They went after him hard for Nine and Into the Woods, which I thought were both OK. I actually liked his Pirates of the Caribbean movie, all things considered. I don't get all the animosity critics and other seem to have for him. It sounds like people are ready to forgive him now with Mary Poppins Returns for some reason. So, yeah, everything I can think of that would work against the movie has already resolved itself.
Interest Level: Excited
Aquaman
Aquaman is called on to accept his destiny as king of Atlantis...or something.
Working For It: Jason Mamoa's Aquaman was one of the better parts of Justice League last year. He's due a star vehicle by now. The cast includes Amber Heard, Nicole Kidman, Patrick Wilson, Dolph Lundgren, and Willem Dafoe as a "best of the rest" cast among all the actors in Hollywood who aren't already committed to a superhero franchise. After Furious 7, I'm curious about director James Wan's next step from horror to action movies.
Working Against It: There is a reason why it's taken this long for someone to make an Aquaman film. It's super hard to shoot underwater action in a way that doesn't look silly or overdependent on CGI. Based on the little I've seen in trailers, I'm concerned.
Interest Level: Curious
A Transformers prequel, set in 1987, starring the breakout character from the 2007 movie.
Working For It: I'm a long-time defender of the first live-action Transformers movie. Finally getting a new director is hopefully going to bring some life back into the franchise. I'm curious was the Kubo and the Two Strings director will bring to this. Making a prequel should scale things down into a more manageable size. Hailee Steindfeld has been great in everything I've seen her in. I'm also a fan of John Cena's push into movies.
Working Against It: The last couple Transformers movies have been among the worst things I've seen in years. I'm out of goodwill for the franchise, so Bumblebee needs to win me back over.
Interest Level: Curious
A working class woman accidentally deceives her way into a corporate job and proves that she's more than up to the task.
Working For It: There was a time when Jennifer Lopez was churning out perfectly watchable RomComs at a solid rate. She is a very capable lead in this kind of movie. I like Milo Ventimiglia, Charlene Yi, and Vanessa Hundgens as well. Yi has a very specific comedic voice. I'm surprised she doesn't more regularly show up in small scene-stealing roles in comedies.
Working Against It: It's not like any of Lopez's movies were great or enduring. I haven't been yearning for her return to lighthearted comedies. There's also the fact that as she gets older and continues to look flawless, it gets even harder to buy her "Jenny from the Block" character.
Interest Level: Uninterested
After he's been brutally beaten, an artist creates a fictional world as therapy to get over what happened to him.
Working For It: I love Robert Zemeckis when he's in a more playful mode. Steve Carrell seems better matched for this material than something like Beautiful Boy earlier this year. Leslie Mann is reaching "national treasure" status in my book. After her Moonlight/Hidden Figures 2016, I'm starting to suspect she has a savvy eye for good roles. And I can already tell that if they deploy that song from the trailer at the right moment in the movie, I'm going to fall hard for it.
Working Against It: Downsizing, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. The recent history of these high concept, thoughtful, adult Christmas comedies hasn't been great. They make great trailers but are really hard to execute properly.
Interest Level: Intrigued
A doomed love story about two people who fall for each other in the middle of the Cold War.
Working For It: The trailer is nice and haunting. That has me curious. Every year, there's a foreign movie that's a critical favorite that tries to work its way into the Oscar discussion. They are generally good but depressing movies. Cold War is that movie this year.
Working Against It: Being a foreign film works against it some. I don't recognize any of the actors or know the filmmaker's work, so I'm expected to see it on reputation alone.
Interest Level: Curious
12/25 & 12/28
A comedic take on the iconic partnership.
Working For It: Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly are just funny together. Rebecca Hall playing the straight woman to them could work out well. Ralph Fiennes has proven himself as very good at very stupid and silly comedy (Hail, Caesar!, The Grand Budapest Hotel). And Hugh Laurie is playing Mycrost. Who wouldn't want to see that?
Working Against It: The PG-13 rating is an important indicator of the level of comedy. I've only really liked Will Ferrell's PG-13 comedies when he made them with Adam McKay*
Interest Level: Curious
*Stranger Than Fiction is a different vein of comedy, if you even want to call it a straight comedy.
The story of the rise of perhaps the most powerful Vice President in United States history.
Working For It: Speaking of Adam McKay, he's back with another look back at 2000s America. Just from the trailers, Christian Bale's transformation into Dick Cheney is impressive (not surprising, given Bale's history). Sam Rockwell as G.W. Bush sounds about right. Steve Carell looks to be tapping into something interesting as Donald Rumsfeld. Amy Adams should be great too. Really, all across the call sheet is fun casting. Tyler Perry as Colin Powell? Yes, please.
Working Against It: The Big Short hit me as negatively as any good movie in recent memory. The tone was smug and the story was secondary to how much information it was trying to explain. Vice doesn't have me more optimistic. Adam McKay has always been pretty outspoken about how much he doesn't like Cheney. How interesting or enlightening is watching a 2 hour video essay about why really going to be?
Interest Level: Intrigued
Working For It: This features a "holy crap" transformation by Nicole Kidman and I've heard more than a few people call it career best work for her.
Working Against It: I don't know much about the movie beyond Nicole Kidman. Maybe that's all I need to know.
Interest Level: Curious
The story of the cases and struggles that led to Ruth Bader Ginsburg being named as a Justice in the U.S. Supreme Court.
Working For It: I'll happily watch Felicity Jones play a young RBG. That's most of the appeal here. A lower key element in its favor is that Mimi Leder is directing it. Leder has mainly worked in TV for the last two decade, including The Leftovers, Shameless, and ER, and she's really good at it. She deserves another shot at a movie.
Working Against It: I'm getting some RBG fatigue already.
Interest Level: Curious
Laurel and Hardy attempt to make a comeback with a theater tour.
Working For It: John C. Reilly is part of yet another comedic duo this year. This time it's Steve Coogan, and they are playing, perhaps the greatest comedy duo or all time.
Working Against It: I'll be honest, I'm having a hard time getting past Reilly's fat suit and makeup.
Interest Level: Curious
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