2013
6/6
The Lock: Too much of a toss up to say.Other Options
Working For It: Tom Cruise is one of the last real movie stars and he's refusing to age gracefully. I kind of dig that. Between Oblivion last year and Edge of Tomorrow, it looks like he is determined to earn one more blockbuster outside of the franchise game before he quiets down. I also strongly approve of Emily Blunt being a badass.
Working Against It: Like Oblivion, this looks more like a collection of ideas from other Sci-Fi movies rolled into one and I have a hard time believing the orginal script called for the soldier to be in his 50s. Until Cruise starts taking note of what Liam Nesson has been doing for the past few years to plausibly stay an action lead*.
Odds I'll See It: 50%
*Jack Reacher was a good first step.
The Fault in Our Stars
Working For It: Shailene Woodly is quickly becoming the new It-Girl and for good reason. After her work in The Spectacular Now last year, I have no doubt she will be great in this role. More importantly though, I find myself surrounded by a rabid fanbase for this book and seem likely to be pulled into it. I'd probably hold off on this if not for the likelihood I'll accept an invite to see it with a friend.
Working Against It: In general, this is not my kind of movie. As opposed to The Spectacular Now, which had critical buzz for months leading up to its release, The Fault in Ours Stars has been pretty quiet. I don't think it went through the festival circuit the way Now did, but I don't like to trust a movie like this sight-unseen. That's how you get Charlie St. Cloud.
Odds I'll See It: 50%
Obvious Child [Limited]
Working For It: Speaking of critical buzz, I've heard a lot about Jenny Slate's Obvious Child since it first popped up in Sundance. Slate in particular has benefitted from this buzz and I'm curious to see Mona-Lisa Saperstein from Parks & Rec. front and center.
Working Against It: Everything I've heard about this movie gives me the impression that it is more of a vehicle to showcase Slate than a good movie, and I'm ok holding off on seeing a dramedy about a woman in a state of arrested developement until it makes the Netflix rounds. Besides, I doubt it'll expand to my area anyway.
Odds I'll See It:
6/13
Working For It: 21 Jump Street was one of the biggest surprises of 2012. It had no business being as good as it was, no less from the same people who wrote Project X (one of my least favorite movies that same year). Two years later, Channing Tatum has become a force to be recommend with, Jonah Hill is a critical darling, and the directors are coming off The Lego Movie's super success. The trailer looks hilarious and the meta-humor looks like it will stay a step ahead of getting stale.
Working Against It: Beyond sequelitis where no one tries as hard the next time around, I can't think of what would stand in its way.
Odds I'll See It: 95%
Other Options
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Working For It: The first movie is beloved to the point where some people contest it was better than Toy Story 3 that year*. It is the rare Dreamworks Animated feature that appears to be more concerned with story than the number of easy jokes and A-list talent do the voices they can fit in. The second movie, from what I hear does everything right that the first movie did and doesn't give into any of Dreamworks' worse habits.
Working Against It: While I liked the first movie, it didn't fill me with awe the way it did others that I know. More importantly, I'm talking about what I see in theaters. I do matinees. Matinees for this means children. I need to be in the right mood for a theater full of children and parents too exhausted to keep them from being annoying. Along with the direct competition from Jump Street, if I'm seeing this, it won't be opening weekend.
Odds I'll See It: 60%
*Which I consider a step too bold.
6/20
The Lock: There's too strong a chance that this will go to How to Train Your Dragon 2 for me to dare call anything this weekend a lock.Other Options
Jersey Boys
Working For It: Clint Eastwood is a multi-Oscar winning director taking on a Grammy Award winning Musical with a cast including Oscar Winner Christopher Walken.
Working Against It: Name a Clint Eastwood musical...Exactly. There's reason to have pause.
Odds I'll See It: 20%
Think Like a Man Too
Working For It: Kevin Hart is becoming a comedy superstar. Add in people like Micheal Ealy (played straight-man to Hart admirably in About Last Night), Regina Hall (matched him excellently in About Last Night), Meagan Good (always glad to see her), Gabrielle Union (who doesn't age...ever), Taraji P. Henson (Oscar nominee, mind you), Romany Malco (does anyone know why he's not in more comedies?), and others and you have a potentially lethal ensemble, especially considering Tyler Perry's name is nowhere to be found.
Working Against It: I never saw the first, so I can't speak to its quality. It's based on a Steve Harvey book that I haven't read, so I can't speak to its quality. Mostly though, it's playing the homonym game with the word "too" and that bothers me and may be too damning to overcome.
Odds I'll See It: 8%
6/27
Working For It: Transformers: Dark of the Moon was a fine return to form if not quality after the cinematic atrocity that was Revenge of the Fallen. They've removed Shia Labeouef who was more of a detraction by the third and replaced him with Mark Wahlberg who, quite frankly, fits this kind of movie well. By now, we know exactly what to expect from the series and I like giant robots and explosions on a big screen. I don't need to know any more plot than that going in.
Working Against It: It's the only major release this weekend which is slid it into being a lock. I'm not crazy about action movies that are being increasingly made for foreign markets. Not to insult world-cinema, but if you thought trying to please everyone in America was dangerous, remember that Battleship was made trying to please a global audience. You've been warned.
Odds I'll See It: 53%
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