Oscar Prep: Supporting Actor

Every year, there are categories that are decided from the beginning of the season and no amount of malaise can shift opinions about the result. Last year, it was Daniel Day Lewis for Lincoln, Octavia Spencer the year before for The Help. This year, it's the Supporting Actor race.

A couple notes first:
-Each category is arrange from Most to Least likely to win by my measure.
-An '*' before the title indicates a movie that I have seen.
-I'm trying to keep the shorthand to a minimum (get it). A couple that come up though are BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), SAG (Screen Actors Guild), PGA (Producers Guild of America, WGA (Writers Guild of America), DGA (Directors Guild of America).

Other Picks

Best Supporting Actor
Front Runner: *Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
Winner: Golden Globes – Best Supporting Actor, SAG – Outstanding Supporting ActorThe lack of recognition by the BAFTAs is a little baffling, but make no mistake. The people have decided. This is Jared Leto's award. Personally, I wouldn't give it to him, but I didn't enjoy his movie near as much as other people did.

Dark Horse: *Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Winner: BAFTA – Best Supporting Actor
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Supporting ActorThis is Jared Leto's award. The BAFTA win gives Abdi the Dark Horse distinction. I can't see any situation where he steals this from Leto. Case closed.

Other Nominees:
*Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Supporting Actor, BAFTA – Best Supporting Actor, SAG – Outstanding Supporting Actor
Like a lot of the categories where 12 Years a Slave is my 2nd or 3rd pick, the only way Fassbender wins is if it dominates the night. If it's any consolation, he'd be my pick from this group.
*Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Supporting Actor, BAFTA – Best Supporting Actor
He keeps getting nominated and I don't know why. It's a good performance. It's a movie filled with scene-stealers and the only scenes Cooper steals are the ones without Adams, Lawrence, or Bale.
*Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
"2 time Oscar Nominee Jonah Hill". As someone who legitimately lists Superbad as one of my favorite movies, I love hearing that. It makes it no less surprising to hear. Sadly, despite this being an amazingly committed performance it was largely unrecognized beyond the Oscars. There's no sign of the needed support to pull off a win.