Oscar Prep: Supporting Actress

Supporting Actress had potential to be one of the more interesting categories this year due to some pretty heavy campaigning to get Scarlett Johansson nominated for Her. Alas., the Academy is still not ready to accept a non-traditional performance and the nomination field is all the less interesting as a result. Mark my words though. After the close call with Andy Serkis for Rise of the Planet of the Apes 2 years ago and Scarlett now, we can't be more than a couple years away from seeing a nomination for screen-capture or voice-over work.

A couple notes first:
-Each category is arrange from Most to Least likely to win by my measure.
-An '*' before the title indicates a movie that I have seen.
-I'm trying to keep the shorthand to a minimum (get it). A couple that come up though are BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), SAG (Screen Actors Guild), PGA (Producers Guild of America, WGA (Writers Guild of America), DGA (Directors Guild of America).

Other Picks

Best Supporting Actress
Front Runner: *Lupita Nyong'o – 12 Years a Slave
Winner: SAG – Outstanding Supporting Actress
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Supporting Actress, BAFTA – Best Supporting Actress
First of all, she should win. I can't even allow an argument to the contrary because it's wrong. I'm backed up though by her SAG win which is by far the most influential group for the acting awards. She's been nominated any opportunity she's been given. She's not a lock, but she should be.

Dark Horse: *Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Winner: Golden Globes – Best Supporting Actress, BAFTA – Best Supporting Actress
Nominee: SAG – Outstanding Supporting Actress
People love Jennifer Lawrence and who could blame them? This is a big performance on a very performance-heavy movie. The Golden Globe and BAFTA trophies indicate that she has momentum on her side. As I understand it though, she's not even petitioning for her to win the Oscar over Nyong'o. Certainly, if 12 Years a Slave is the Oscar hopeful it looks to be, I'd expect it could beat the massive J-Law train.

Other Nominees:
*Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Supporting Actress, BAFTA – Best Supporting Actress, SAG – Outstanding Supporting Actress
You know Roberts took this role because it was a guaranteed Oscar Nomination. As it turns out, the competition is stiff enough that her excellent work is a longshot to win at best.
*June Squibb – Nebraska
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Supporting Actress, SAG – Outstanding Supporting Actress
I won't lie. This is not a nomination I agree with at all. She's funny and has one fantastic scene in the movie. I completely thing she is riding the Bruce Dern momentum and, at the end of the day, I think voters will look at the nomination as all she's due.
*Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Supporting Actress, BAFTA – Best Leading Actress (?)
I think she deserves more consideration than she's received. She will certainly fall victim to voters being unable to look past Blanchett's powerhouse performance.