Oscar Prep: Editing

For over 30 years, no best picture winner has gone without a nomination in Editing. That's the longest streak of any category (if if we don't include Argo winning without a Best Director nod last year). That's a strange stat but I think it reflects how editing is one of those areas that is only noticeable if it's done badly. Otherwise, it tends to get credited to the directing, writing, or cinematography. Sadly, the trend only goes as far as the nomination. A win in Editing doesn't necessarily presume a win for best picture, which means this field is technically wide open.

A couple notes first:
-Each category is arrange from Most to Least likely to win by my measure.
-An '*' before the title indicates a movie that I have seen.
-I'm trying to keep the shorthand to a minimum (get it). A couple that come up though are BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), SAG (Screen Actors Guild), PGA (Producers Guild of America, WGA (Writers Guild of America), DGA (Directors Guild of America).
 

Other Picks

Best Film Editing
Winner: *Gravity
Nominese: BAFTA - Best Editing, American Cinema Editors - Best Edited Feature Film – Dramatic
Despite being a wide open field, I still have to go with Gravity for the win. It got the BAFTA and ACE nominations and is a tight 90 minutes which I have to assume owes partial credit to the editing.

Dark Horse:
*Captain Phillips
Winner: American Cinema Editors - Best Edited Feature Film – Dramatic
Nominee: BAFTA - Best Editing
It has the ACE win and a BAFTA nod which puts it on good footing. This one is tough because I don't know what people vote for. There's the assumed voter complacency which could work in Gravity's favor. After that, I'm leaning toward picking the thriller in the group because they are cut in ways that make the editing obvious

Other Nominees:
*American Hustle
Winner: American Cinema Editors - Best Edited Feature Film - Comedy or Musical
They say that David O. Russel movies always come together in the editing room.  The ACE awards seems to recognize that theory. It hasn't helped him win in the past and I see this year too much as a race to recognize one of the big two movies rather than the 2013 ceremony's "spread the wealth" philosophy.
*12 Years a SlaveNominee: BAFTA - Best Editing, American Cinema Editors - Best Edited Feature Film – Dramatic
It's got enough nominations for me to put it higher on the list. I see the length and tone of the movie to hurt it and if voters are going to get lazy with this category, I'm thinking they'll pick Gravity.

*Dallas Buyers Club
No disrespect to the movie, but I don't know what it is doing here. I think voter momentum carried it here. That's going to translate into a couple acting wins. It's much harder to see it sneaking by the other 4 movies here.