Oscar Picks: Adapted Screenplay

The writing categories are fun. The writers branch of the Academy doesn't follow trends the way a lot of other categories do. The nominees are more diverse and the winner doesn't have to go to a best picture front runner. That said, adapted screenplay is the more boring of the two most years.

A couple notes first:
-Each category is arrange from Most to Least likely to win by my measure.
-An '*' before the title indicates a movie that I have seen.
-I'm trying to keep the shorthand to a minimum (get it). A couple that come up though are BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), SAG (Screen Actors Guild), PGA (Producers Guild of America, WGA (Writers Guild of America), DGA (Directors Guild of America).

Other Picks

Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay
Front Runner: *12 Years a Slave
Nominee: Golden Globes - Best Screenplay, BAFTA - Best Adapted Screenplay
I'm a little surprised to see no wins for this. It wasn't eligible for the WGA prize so that absence shouldn't indicate any lack of support. If this movie is the Best Picture contender everyone thinks it is, it really aught to get this win.

Dark Horse: *Philomena
Winner: BAFTA - Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominee: Golden Globes - Best Screenplay
The BAFTA win is basically home court advantage so I'm not sure how much to read into that. It too was not eligible for the WGA award, so don't be frightened by that. The strength of Philomena has always been it's script and Judi Dench. There's a strong chance that its Best Picture nomination could be justified with a win here.

Other Nominees:
*Captain Phillips
Winner: WGA - Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominee: BAFTA - Best Adapted Screenplay
The WGA field isn't as competitive as one may think so I wouldn't get to excited about that. Ultimately, what hurts Captain Phillips' odds (unfair as it may be) is the fact that it is well known how many liberties the script takes with what actually happened.
*Before Midnight
Nominee: WGA - Best Adapted Screenplay
I'd love to see this win about as much as I'd've love see see Julie Delpy in the Best Actress field. Alas, there just isn't the needed support for this to win (hopefully I'm wrong).
*The Wolf of Wall Street
Nominee: BAFTA - Best Adapted Screenplay, WGA - Best Adapted Screenplay
The cries of misogyny and three hour run time will probably do this one in.