Oscar Prep - Lead Actress

No room for new blood this year. We've got four former Oscar winners and a perennial bridesmaid duking it out. I'd've liked to see a little new blood in here but I'm struggling to find someone I'd fell comfortable taking out of this list. In a way, it's refreshing to see established talents being recognized in an actress field which all too often loses interest in women once they reach a certain age.

A couple notes first:
-Each category is arrange from Most to Least likely to win by my measure.
-An '*' before the title indicates a movie that I have seen.
-I'm trying to keep the shorthand to a minimum (get it). A couple that come up though are BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), SAG (Screen Actors Guild), PGA (Producers Guild of America, WGA (Writers Guild of America), DGA (Directors Guild of America).

Other Picks

Best Actress
Front Runner: *Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Winner: Golden Globes – Best Lead Actress - Drama, BAFTA – Best Leading Actress, SAG – Outstanding Lead Actress
She has won everything she's been eligible for. The only thing that could stop her is Oscar politics and this bullshit controversy over 20 year old accusations made against Woody Allen. It is a stupid reason to not vote for Blanchett and it would lower my opinion of the voting process even more.

Dark Horse: *Amy Adams – American Hustle
Winner: Golden Globes – Best Lead Actress - Comedy or Musical
Nominee: BAFTA – Best Leading Actress
If it was up to me, Adams is the no-brainer choice for this. She is a force in this movie. It's astonishing that she still hasn't won an Oscar and that this performance could be anything but a guaranteed win. Due to the Golden Globe nomination process, she is the only person who won who isn't Cate Blanchett, so that puts her as next most likely.

Other Nominees:
*Sandra Bullock – GravityNominee: Golden Globes – Best Lead Actress, BAFTA – Best Leading Actress, SAG – Outstanding Lead Actress
It's weird. Absolutely everyone has nominated Bullock for Gravity but I get a sense that everyone thinks the computers did all the work, which is bullshit. This is easily a better performance than the one that got her her Oscar.
*Judi Dench – Philomena 
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Lead Actress - Drama, BAFTA – Best Leading Actress, SAG – Outstanding Lead Actress
Dench's layered performance has be the catalyst for all of Philomena's award attention. Sadly, this is one of those years in which an A+ performance isn't enough.
*Meryl Streep – August: Osage County 
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Lead Actress - Comedy or Musical, SAG – Outstanding Lead Actress
I think we can all agree that we have been spoiled by Streep's continued excellence. It's strange that her forgettable Iron Lady performance got her her third Oscar and there's no longer any urgency to give her a fourth win.