Oscar Prep: Best Picture

I don't know. That's what this comes down to. When was the last time you could say that right before the Oscar ceremony? Maybe The Departed in 2006 or Crash in 2005, but those were both cases of a weak group of movies with a winner by default. This years is Ali and Frazier still throwing punches in the final round, just trying to outlast the other. I'll be posting this no more than a day before the Oscars but I promise you, what you are reading is not my first draft of this list. It's virtually a coin toss by now.
That's not even mentioning the movies that didn't make the list. I was sad to see Before Midnight never get the traction to pull a nomination. The whole point of "The Dark Knight Rule" was to get some non-prestige films in the mix so I'd've loved for Frozen to make it in the final list. Indies like Spring Breakers and Frances Ha never stood a chance but certainly are deserving. Rush could've made it with more box office attention. Instead it fizzled away. Enough about the movies that didn't make it. Let's break down the nominees.

A couple notes first:
-Each category is arrange from Most to Least likely to win by my measure.
-An '*' before the title indicates a movie that I have seen.
-I'm trying to keep the shorthand to a minimum (get it). A couple that come up though are BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), SAG (Screen Actors Guild), PGA (Producers Guild of America, WGA (Writers Guild of America), DGA (Directors Guild of America).

Other Picks

Best Picture
Front Runner: *GravityWinner: DGA - Outstanding Direction, PGA - Outstanding Motion Picture
Nominee: Golden Globes - Best Motion Picture – Drama, BAFTA - Best Film
If it was up to me, Gravity would be the lock to win. It's a beautiful and simple movie held together by a captivating performance by Sandra Bullock. The DGA rightfully awarded Cuaron in what had to be a laugher. It's been nominated nearly everywhere that matters. I'm not sure how much a Best British Film BAFTA means to Oscar season but it can't hurt. I see this as being decided by the Acting branch of the vote who will have a hard time distinguishing what Gravity's two person cast does from the more robust casts in the list. Gravity's best hope is that voting by the Actors branch is fiercely divided between all the nominees, diluting their impact on 12 Years a Slave. In the end, I'm picking this because I want it to win.

Dark Horse: *12 Years a Slave
Winner: Golden Globes - Best Motion Picture – Drama, BAFTA - Best Film, PGA - Outstanding Motion Picture
Nominee: SAG - Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture, DGA - Outstanding Direction
This pick is all about diversity. No, not that kind of diversity. I mean diversity of nominations. 12 Years has nominations everywhere except with the Writer's Guild, where it wasn't eligible. They split the Producers Guild win with Gravity which has a voting system most similar to the Oscars. The Golden Globe win doesn't mean much but it helps perception with votes, for sure. The BAFTA win helps a lot. In the end, I think that it won't win simply because it isn't carrying any other awards. You'd expect an Oscar winner for best picture to be the favorite in a few more categories than this is. Granted, this comes a year after Argo won under similar circumstances, so, fuck me, right?

Other Nominees:
*American Hustle
 Winner: Golden Globes - Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, SAG - Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominee: BAFTA - Best Film, DGA - Outstanding Direction, PGA - Outstanding Motion Picture, WGA - Best Original Screenplay
There was a moment when the nominations were first announced where it looked like there was a "Big 3" fighting for the Oscar. That's quieted down since. A Golden Globe helps to get a nomination but means little for an Oscar win. The SAG award doesn't put Hustle in contention so much as it plays defense for Gravity against 12 Years a Slave. It wouldn't be stunning if this won. I would be very unlikely though.

*Her
Winner: WGA - Best Original Screenplay
Nominee: Golden Globes - Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, PGA - Outstanding Motion Picture
 If the median age of the Academy was about 20 years younger, Her would virtually be a lock to win. Sadly, that's not the case. The more savvy Writer's Guild awarded the fantastic script. Alas, if Phoenix couldn't even pull off a Best Actor nod, this little hope for Best Picture.

*Dallas Buyers Club
Nominee: SAG - Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture, PGA - Outstanding Motion Picture, WGA - Best Original Screenplay
It's odd calling a movie with two locks for Acting awards a non-contender in the Best Picture race.

*The Wolf of Wall Street 
Nominee: Golden Globes - Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, DGA - Outstanding Direction, PGA - Outstanding Motion Picture, WGA - Best Adapted Screenplay
Even if it did have some awards traction at some point, that was lost when people started asking questions like "Do I really want to vote for a movie that promotes misogyny and drug use?", which leads me to ask if Hugo made everyone forget everything else Scorsese has done his entire career? People are stupid.

*Captain Phillips 
Winner: WGA - Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominee: Golden Globes - Best Motion Picture – Drama, BAFTA - Best Film, PGA - Outstanding Motion Picture
Its chances died with Hank's Best Actor snub.

*Philomena 
Nominee: Golden Globes - Best Motion Picture – Drama, BAFTA - Best Film
This year's "little movie that could" and another example of Harvey Weinstein's mastery of Oscar strategizing. Without at least Dench being a lock for Best Actress, Philomena never had a chance.

*Nebraska 
Nominee: Golden Globes - Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical, PGA - Outstanding Motion Picture, WGA - Best Original Screenplay
Nominating Nebraska felt like "the polite thing to do". I have no other way to describe it. No one ever believed it could win.