Oscar Prep: Lead Actor

So, this category is packed. You could almost fill a ballot that matches up with any year with the snubs. No Robert Redford for All is Lost. No Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips. No Joaquin Phoenix for Her (seriously?). No Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale Station. And the list goes on. The 5 that were chosen  are certainly a deserving set (mostly). Let's look at their odds.

A couple notes first:
-Each category is arrange from Most to Least likely to win by my measure.
-An '*' before the title indicates a movie that I have seen.
-I'm trying to keep the shorthand to a minimum (get it). A couple that come up though are BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), SAG (Screen Actors Guild), PGA (Producers Guild of America, WGA (Writers Guild of America), DGA (Directors Guild of America).

Other Picks

Best Actor
Front Runner: *Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Winner: Golden Globes – Best Lead Actor - Drama, SAG – Outstanding Lead ActorI'm confused by the BAFTAs ignoring the film, but no matter. Every other voting group selected McConaughey. I'm not as sold on his performance in this movie, so I'm choosing to look at this as recognition for his last two years, which have been some of the finest and most prolific of any actor I can remember ever.

Dark Horse: *Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Winner: BAFTA – Best Leading Actor
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Lead Actor - Drama, SAG – Outstanding Lead ActorEjiofor was damn good in this and the film works because he holds it together. At times it is understated which makes it easy to look over. He's got the BAFTA win and the nominations everywhere else. If someone is going to sneak in and yank the Oscar away from McConaughey, it's him.

Other Nominees: 
*Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street 
Winner: Golden Globes – Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy
Nominee: BAFTA – Best Leading Actor
More than any other year, I've heard murmurs of disbelief that DiCaprio has yet to win an Oscar. It didn't reach fever pitch in time for this year's awards circuit but I get the feeling that his next great performance has an Oscar with his name on it.
*Bruce Dern – Nebraska 
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy, BAFTA – Best Leading Actor, SAG – Outstanding Lead Actor
 It looks like the "career achievement" Oscar talked has cooled for Dern. I don't know how likely he ever was to win. It's been a nice story though.
Sidenote: Why aren't more people talking about Will Forte in that movie? He was superb!
*Christian Bale- American Hustle 
Nominee: Golden Globes – Best Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy, BAFTA – Best Leading Actor
I'm still not sure how he became a staple of this award season. He went through a Christian Bale-esque physical transformation for the movie, for sure. I can't be the only one who thought the women in the movie completely dwarfed the men. Regardless, no one feels he "is due" anything. I hope he gets a comfortable chair on Oscar night because he'll be in it for a while.