It amazing this ceremony is as big as it is considering how undisciplined it all is. I at least know how Emmys are picked and voted on. The Globes are both a mystery and completely predictable. On the TV end, they love shiny, young, and new, hence Kevin Spacey (shiny - aka movie star on TV), Hayden Panettiere's second nomination for Nashville (young), and Brooklyn Nine-Nine's comedy nomination (new). There's no pattern to winners other than they don't tend to repeat. Beyond that, it is basically a guessing game, complete with dart board and blindfold.
Now that I've gone through my obligatory "Why the Golden Globes are useless"* speech, time for me to make some picks.
*Except for Tina Fey and Amy Poehler hosting. I would always watch that.
Movie - Drama
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush
Seen 4/5 - I'm picking Gravity because I think 12 Years a Slave bums the HFPA out too much and the others are "also rans".
Movie - Comedy
American Hustle
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Seen 2/5 - American Hustle. Wolf is too polarizing and I don't know enough about the others.
Actor - Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Idris Elba - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford - All is Lost
Seen 3/5 - Chiwetel Ejiofor. It's too hard to come up with a strong reason for any pick over another. They are all so good.
Actress - Drama
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Judi Dench - Philomena
Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet - Labor Day
Seen 3/5. Emma Thompson. They like her, right? I think Bullock will be overlooked as a technical achievement. Labor Day and Philomena are too low profile to prop up their nominees. And, I don't know, do the Globes like Woody Allen as much as the Oscars?
Actor - Comedy
Christian Bale -American Hustle
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix - Her
Seen 2/5 - Leonardo DiCaprio. It's a very big performance.
Actress - Comedy
Amy Adams - American Hustle
Julie Delpy - Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig - Frances Ha
Julia Louise-Dreyfus - Enough Said
Meryl Streep - August: Osage County
Seen 3/5 - Amy Adams. Just because I like Amy Adams, Streep is old news, Delpy has a history of being ignored, and Gerwig is too low profile.
Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl - Rush
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
Seen 5/5 - Jared Leto. It's the biggest transformation and I see that being rewarded.
Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
June Squibb - Nebraska
Seen 3/5 - Jennifer Lawrence. I'm not about to bet against her yet.
Director
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne - Nebraska
David O. Russell - American Hustle
Seen 4/5 - Gravity. No reason.
Screenplay
Steve Coogan - Philomena
Spike Jonze - Her
Bob Nelson - Nebraska
John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell & Eric Warren Singer - American Hustle
Seen 2/5 - Her. It seems too clever not to win here.
Score
All Is Lost
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Gravity
The Book Thief
12 Years a Slave
Seen 2/5. The Book Thief. I don't bet against John Williams.
Song
"Atlas" - Catching Fire
"Let It Go" - Frozen
"Ordinary Love" - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
"Please Mr. Kennedy" - Inside Llewyn Davis
"Sweeter Than Fiction" - One Chance
Seen 2/5. Frozen. I'm picking Frozen any chance I have.
Animated Film
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
Seen 1/3. Frozen. Don't make me repeat myself.
Foreign Language Film
Blue is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises
Seen 0/5. Blue is the Warmest Color. It won Cannes and, more importantly, it is the only one I know anything about.
TV - Drama
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
House of Cards
Masters of Sex
Seen 2/5. Breaking Bad. This can go one of two ways: The night is dominated by Breaking Bad as most nights in TV awards will be over the next year or they can go with shiny and new and give it all to House of Cards.
TV - Musical/Comedy
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Girls
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation
Seen 5/5. Parks & Rec. There's no strong new show (sorry Brooklyn 99). Modern Family's time has passed. Girls could repeat although the Globes don't like to repeat. I'm going with the increased profile of P&R's cast bumping up their favor with the HFPA...I can dream.
Actor - Drama
Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
Michael Sheen - Masters of Sex
Liev Schreiber - Ray Donovan
Kevin Spacey - House of Cards
James Spader - The Blacklist
Seen 2/5. Kevin Spacey. Even if Breaking Bad is a world-beater, I don't see how Spacey can lose this. A movie star on TV? That's all the HFPA needs to know.
Actress - Drama
Julianna Marguilies - The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslany - Orphan Black
Taylor Schilling - Orange is the New Black
Kerry Washington - Scandal
Robin Wright - House of Cards
Seen 2/5. Tatiana Maslany. The F in HFPA is for Foreign. Maslany is Canadian. That's as foreign as this category gets.
Actor - Comedy
Jason Bateman - Arrested Development
Don Cheadle - House of Lies
Michael J Fox - The Michael J Fox Show
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Andy Samberg - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Seen 5/5. Michael J Fox. New show. Old star (who used to be in movies). Cheadle or Bateman could also get this, but I'm sticking with the Parkinson's for the win.
Actress - Comedy
Zooey Deschanel - New Girl
Lena Dunham - Girls
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
Julia Louise-Dreyfus - Veep
Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
Seen 4/5. Amy Poehler. I'm going to keep picking it until it is right.
Actor - Mini-Series/Movie
Matt Damon - Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas - Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor - Dancing on the Edge
Idris Elba - Luther
Al Pacino - Phil Spector
Seen 0/5. Michael Douglas. Candelabra is not only an Emmy affair.
Actress - Mini-Series/Movie
Helena Bonham Carter - Burton & Taylor
Rebecca Ferguson - The White Queen
Jessica Lange - American Horror Story: Coven
Helen Mirren - Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss - Top of the Lake
Seen: 1/5. Elisabeth Moss. She needs to start her trophy collection one of these days.
TV - Sup. Actor
Josh Charles - The Good Wife
Rob Lowe - Behind the Candelabra
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
Corey Stoll - House of Cards
Jon Voight - Ray Donovan
Seen 2/5. Corey Stoll. I don't know why. It sounds right.
TV - Sup. Actress
Jacqueline Bisset - Dancing on the Edge
Janet McTeer - The White Queen
Hayden Panettiere - Nashville
Monica Potter - Parenthood
Sofia Vergara - Modern Family
Seen 3/5. Monica Potter. I have to assume her nomination wasn't a fluke. Granted, I think this is more for the painful mayoral campaign arch than the cancer one which makes me sad.
To sum things up: I'm probably very wrong. I don't care. I didn't bother researching this at all. All it means is that it's time for me to start working on an Oscar project for this year.
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