College Basketball Preseason Top 25

I know most people think of this blog as being for movies and sometimes TV shows. That's actually not true. It's a blog for what I find interesting at any given moment. Luckily, I'm a man of limited taste. Most of the time, that means a couple dozen Reactions a month and a few posts about TV shows.
On days like today, I'm breaking from that pattern. One of my other obsessions is college basketball. Last year, I posted a number of predictions going into the season. While I don't intend to be as ambitious on a weekly basis as I was last year, I do like the idea of coming up with my own Top 25.
Before I get to that, I want to make something clear about how I'm picking these. This is how I think teams will finish, not begin. That's what a preseason list should be: a list of where you think teams will end up. Some of these teams will not look like top 10 or top 25 teams initially. That's ok. I'm all about the journey.
In addition to my top 25, I also included 5 teams that I think are overrated and 5 sleepers that I really could be undervaluing.

This Year: 
Conference Picks
Last Year:
Top 25
Conference Picks

1. North Carolina

It's hard to pick any other team as the best this season. UNC was a top 15 team last year. The only significant contributor not returning is the inconsistent J.P. Tokoto, who somehow thought he was good enough to go pro. I value a strong Point Guard highly and it doesn't get better than Marcus Paige in his senior season, even despite his recent injury. 9 of the top 10 players return, including Sophomores like Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, and Joel Berry who could become real terrors now that they've adapted to the college game.
No team is going into this season as polished as Kentucky, Wisconsin, or Arizona last year, and this team doesn't look as dominating as the (pre-Kendall Marshall injury) 2012 team or national champion 2009 team.  Given the current situation, it's hard to feel more secure about any team other than the Tar Heels.

2. Kansas

I'm surprised more people aren't higher on this team. The only contributors from last year's nearly top 10 squad that are gone are underwhelming Freshmen Kelly Oubre and Cliff Alexander, who never quite fit in with the team. To replace them, Bill Self brings in big time recruits Cheick Diallo (PF) and Carlton Bragg (PF). Even without them, the Jayhawks could boast a starting lineup of Frank Mason, Wayne Selden Jr., Sviatoslav Mykhailuk, Perry Ellis, and Jamari Traylor which could match any in the country. As a Kentucky fan, I am very afraid of the rematch with Kansas this year. They are going to be very good.

3. Oklahoma

Another team I'm surprised to not see higher in most preseason rankings. The Sooners, a top 15 squad last year, return 4 or 5 starters, all 30+ MPG players. Bench depth and incoming recruits like JC-transfer Akolda Manyang (C) should make up for the loss of last year's Newcomer of the Year in the Big 12, TaShawn Thomas (PF). Besides, they still have reigning Big 12 Player of the Year, Buddy Hield. Remember how stacked the Big 12 was last year? And he was the best player. Any time a team returns 75% of their production (minutes and points) is a good start.

4. Kentucky

I'm nervous wherever I pick Kentucky. The Wildcats are certainly the most speculative pick at the top, having lost 7 of the top 10 players (6 picked in the NBA draft and all currently rostered) from a nearly undefeated season. Only Tyler Ulis (PG), Senior Alex Poythress (F), and Marcus Lee (F/C) return. They represent the 8th, 9th, and 10th leading scorers. The returning players amount to only about a fifth of the minutes played from last season. Luckily, no one is better than John Calipari at developing Freshman and he has a large and talented class, including potential lottery picks Jamal Murray (G) and Skal Labissiere (C). Kentucky should be fully reloaded. I expect this season to play out more like the 2011 Final Four team that lost early but put it all together by the end of the season, than the 2013 team that never looked comfortable and lost in the NIT. Having a capable Point Guard like Ulis makes that confidence in them a lot easier to find.

5. Virginia

I was a little low on them last year because they lost a player to the NBA Draft and a big man to graduation. Well, they lost exactly that again this year, only I'm not biting. They still have ACC All Defensive players Malcolm Brogdon (G) and Anthony Gill (F) , ACC 6th Man of the Year Mike Tobey (C), and rising Point Guard London Perrantes. That's nearly 75% of their minutes played last year. It's a roster full of Juniors and Seniors all used to Tony Bennet's Pack Line Defensive system. The more I think about it, even 5th could be too low.

6. Iowa St.

This is the third team already from the Big 12. The conference may not have the depth of last year, but it's certainly going to be strong at the top. The Cyclones lost two starters but they should be easily replaceable. They bring back a trio of All Conference players: Point Guard Monte Morris, versatile star forward Georges Niang, and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jameel McKay. There's plenty of bench players with experience and transfers to fill in the rest of the holes. The only real wild card is the coaching change. Steve Prohm did great work at Murray St. It's hard to know if he'll get as much out of these players as Fred Hoiberg with his positionless system. With players this good, I don't expect that to be a problem.

7. Maryland

Here's one I don't fully get. This is a team that's actually getting first place votes in other places. Frankly, 7th even seems a little high. They were barely a top 30 team last year, only return about 60% of their minutes played, and were over-achievers all last season. No one seems to appreciate how important Dez Wells was to last year's success. He, not Melo Trimble, was the All Conference 1st teamer after all. Transfer Rasheed Sulaimon saw his production go down every season at Duke before leaving for the Terraphins. There's no guarantee that top ten recruit Diamond Stone (C) will be as ready made as Trimple was.
That's the negative. Here's why they still are a top ten team. Melo Trimble is a beast and any team with a Point Guard as good as him is off to a great start. They have impact transfers like Sulaimon (SG, Duke) and Robert Carter Jr. (PF, Georgia Tech).  Stone is a major recruit (#6 overall according to Rivals). In terms of experience, they still have Jake Layman, Diamonte Dodd, and a lot of rising Sophomores. They live or die based on Trimble though.

8. Wichita St.

What are the Shockers going to do when All Conference guards Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker finally graduate after this season? Those two have led the school through an unprecedented run of success. Yes, losing Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the year Tekele Cotton hurts this year(much like losing Cleanthony Early did the year before). To make up for that, there's former top 40 recruit Connor Frankamp (G) from Kansas and Anton Grady, an All Conference graduate transfer from Cleveland St. The lineup is bolstered by a trio of Sophomore forwards looking to increase their roles, Senior "glue guy" Even Wessel (G), and a solid recruiting class with two top 150 recruits. It's hard to see how they could take a step back with all that.

9. Vanderbilt

My first truly bold pick. Vanderbilt quietly finished last year as the third best team in the SEC. They had a very young team that relied almost entirely on underclassmen for production. They are coming into the year with almost 80% of their minutes played from last year and over 80% of their scoring. Damian Jones (C) is a potential lottery pick who managed to get All Conference First Team honors last year in a conference that had a stacked UK roster eating up the accolades. Expect the Sophomore trio of Riley LaChance (PG), Wade Baldwin (SG), and Matthre Fisher-Davis (SF) to take a step forward in production too. The Commodores will be going into this season as the best team that no one is talking about.

10. Michigan St.

There's few things more reliable that Tom Izzo putting together a tournament-ready team. It will hurt losing arguably the two best players from last year's surprise Final Four run (Travis Trice and Brandon Dawson). That's about all they lose though. All Conference wing Denzel Valentine is still there. Sophomore Lourawls Narin looks ready to run the point. Seniors Matt Costello and Bryn Forbes should offer some consistency. Incoming Freshman Deyonta Davis (PF) is one of the best recruits Izzo has had in a while (#26 according to Rivals). This could easily be another Final Four team.

11. Utah

Delon Wright is not an easy to replace player. He led the team in scoring, assists, and steals last year (second in rebounds and blocks). The Utes look good to try though. Every other significant player returns. That includes All Conference guard Brandon Taylor, potential 1st round pick Jakob Poeltl (C), and former top 60 recruit Brekkott Chapman (PF). No single player meant more to his team last year than Wright. There's a chance that his absence will reveal the rest of the lineup to be role players with no one ready to step up. I doubt that's the case. This is the year for coach Larry Krystkowiak to prove he's rebuilding a program at Utah, not the occasional good team.

12. Duke

The Blue Devils bring in a quartet of top 30 recruits (part of arguably the year's top recruiting class) to replace the four stars of last year's championship squad. They return stabilizing players like lone starter Amile Jefferson (PF) and super sub Matt Jones (G). Grayson All (SG) certainly looked ready for a bigger role in last years NCAA tournament. Then there's Rice transfer Sean Obi (C) who could contribute and, yes, they still have a Plumlee on the roster (Marshall). On paper, everything is there for another great season.
Now, let's take off our NCAA Championship goggles for a second. This is not last year's recruiting class. Derryck Thornton (PG) and Chase Jeter (C) are not the sure things that Tyus Jones and Jahil Okafor were last year, and those are the two most important positions on the roster. Brandon Ingram (SF) may be ever better than Justice Winslow, but that isn't a position where they have as much need. The loss of Quinn Cook is going to hurt a lot. He was able to take control when the freshmen got rattled. There's no four year guy like that this year. And they better hope that one of the new guys is ready to play Center because no one wants Amile Jefferson back there (except maybe the 2014 Mercer team). They are in the same boat as Kentucky, only I like Kentucky's recruits better and Kentucky already has the Point Guard position covered. In my book, that makes all the difference.

13. Indiana

The Hoosiers weren't great last year. They played absolutely no defense and finished outside Ken Pomeroy's top 50. So, how do they move to 13th? Easy. They return over 82% of their scoring, including their top 6 players. The loss of Hanner Mosquere-Parea, who never put it all together, and Stanford Robinson, who took a step back last year, could be a matter of addition through subtraction. Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon form a lethal shooting backcourt. Troy Williams is a talented forward who could play in the NBA after this year. They bring in Michigan graduate transfer Max Bielfeldt to help with the front court. Then there's top 30 recruit Thomas Bryant (C) to help balance out the roster. If all that can mean they play a little defense this season, they could make a big step forward.

14. LSU

I don't know where to put LSU. They lost two players of significance (Jarrell Martin – C and Jordan Mickey - PF), the top two scorers, rebounders, and blockers to the NBA. The roster was only 6 deep so that really hurts. They have a deep returning back court though including Keith Hornsby and Tim Quartermann. The real story is the incoming recruits. This three man class includes probable top NBA Draft pick Ben Simmons (F), top 15 player Antonio Blakeney (SG), and top 50 player Brandon Sampson (SG). Then there's Sophomore transfer Craig Victor (from Arizona), to bolster the front court in case Simmons isn't enough. On paper, this is a great team. Then again, last's year's team should've been better than a 9 seed in the NCAA tournament. There's a history of squandered potential at LSU.

15. West Virginia

This comes down to how essential Juwan Staten was to the Mountaineers' success last season. He was the top scorer and assister. Bob Huggins played 10 players deep, brings in Marshall graduate transfer TyQuane Goard, and adds top 80 Freshman Esa Ahmad (PF). Their furious pressing system was a full team effort, and I expect them to make up for any loss felt by Staten's departure.

16. Arizona

This could be very bad. The Wildcats lost 60% of their minutes played, three First team All-Conference players, and the top four players in minutes, points, assists, and steals last season. That's from a roster that barely played 7 players deep. The only returning starter is Senior Center Kaleb Tarczawski who has never had to be the first option before. Hopefully Sophomore PG Parker Jackson-Cartwright learned everything he needed from T.J. McConnell, and reserve guards Gabe York and Elliott Pitts are ready for more touches. Beyond that, there's a four person recruiting class of players rated #32 or better by Rivals: Allonzo Trier (SG) #12, Ray Smith (SF) #17, Justin Simon (SG) #24, and Chance Comanche (C) #32. The last time that Sean Miller had to rebuild this much took a while to come together. Hopefully, this goes a little smoother.

17. Gonzaga

It'll be fascinating to see the Zags bounce back this year. They have one of the more divided rosters in the country. The front court of Kyle Wiltjer, Domantas Sabonis, and Przemek Karnowski is one of the best in the country. Their battle for playing time will be worth following. Last year's backcourt, including WCC Player of the Year Kevin Pangos and WCC Defensive Player of the Year Gary Bell Jr. is depleted. Sophomore Point Guard Josh Perkins only played five games last year before breaking his jaw, losing the rest of the season. He was looking good before that. He needs to return strong. And there's Senior glue guy Kyle Dranginis to help in the back court. As long as they can figure out that back court situation, they shouldn't fall back much from last year.

18. Cincinnati

I'm not sure why more people aren't talking about the Bearcats. They return their top 6 scorers, top 5 rebounders, top 5 in assists, top 6 in steals, and 86% of their minutes played on a top 35 (per Kenpom) squad that played 9 deep. They didn't rely on any single player and coach Mike Cronin will be back. Except for lacking a known star, I can't find much working against them.

19. Ohio St.

This might be a reach, I'll admit. The Buckeyes lost two thirds of their minutes played, including Big Ten Freshman of the Year and number 2 Draft pick D'Angelo Russell, and I have them ranked higher than Kenpom last year (21). Thad Matta has a tendency to reload whenever the barrel's completely empty. He did it in 2006 with the Greg Oden/Mike Conley/Deaquan Cook/David Lighty class and in 2010 with the Aaron Craft/Jared Sullinger/Deshaun Thomas class. It's about time he had another class like that. Why not this 5 man group? Even if not, this is a young team. With Russell gone, highly-recruited Sophomores like Jae'Sean Tate, Keita Bates-Diop, and Kam Williams could step up. There's so much talent here. Someone must.

20. Texas

It's all there. Experience. Talent. Size. Strong guard-play. Depth. The only two significant losses (Jonathan Holmes and Myles Turner) were at the PF and C positions, which they have more than covered. We're so used to Rick Barnes teams underachieving. I'm not sure what to expect with Shaka Smart now running things. Honestly, the only thing that gives me pause is that so much of this roster is talented bigs and Smart has never shown that he knows what to do with those. For all I know, this could be a top 10 team. We'll see.

21. UCLA

The Bruins had one of the shallowest rosters in the country last year with four players accounting for over 2/3s of the playing time. They lost two of those four, All Conference players Norman Powell and Kevon Looney. As far as lost players go, they were at good positions. The Bruins still have Bryce Alford running the Point. Senior Tony Parker still anchors the middle with Sophomore Thomas Welch ready to back him up. Those are the two most problematic positions for most teams and UCLA doesn't have to worry about them. The rest of the line up is covered by the likes of returning starter Isaac Hamilton, Sophomore Jonah Bolden finally ready to play, and my favorite-named recruit this season, guard Prince Ali, fabulous he, Ali Ababwa.

22. Baylor

Do you want a boring top 25 pick? It doesn't get any less interesting that Baylor. They were quietly a top 20 team last year. 70% of their production is back, including freakish rebounder Rico Gathers. They have a couple bench guys ready to fill in for the couple departing Seniors and a decent recruiting class ready to fill in as the backups. Seriously, I can't find a single interesting thing to say about them, yet I see no way that they won't be a top 25 team.

23. Purdue

Purdue lost its Point Guard from last year and that's it. I'm not sure who they have to step in to that position, but everywhere else is covered. Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year Rapheal David (G) is back. So are twin towers A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas. In addition to that, there's top 20 recruit, Center Caleb Swaingan. Good luck trying to make a shot in the paint against them.
There is a chance we're looking at 2014-15 Nebraska here. Those Huskers returned all their best players after exciting people with a good run at the end of the 2014 season, then completely cratered under the weight of people's expectations. I don't expect that to happen to the Boilermakers, but there you go.

24. Miami

This is another potential reach. The Hurricanes were barely a top 50 team (per Kenpom) after all. Nearly 80% of the points and minutes played from last year return. The most significant loss is PG Manu Lecomte, who was primarily a backup for Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan anyway. Senior  ACC All Defensive Center Tonye Jekiri is back too. Perhaps I'm being foolish to think a team will automatically get better just because they bring everyone back, but to be fair, the same logic is being applied to UNC, my top ranked team.

25. Michigan

The Wolverines are likely to make the biggest jump of any team this year. They finished 75th according to Kenpom last year. That's with arguably their best two players, Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert, injurred for half the season. They return over 90% of their scoring from last season. As long as they can find even one competent big man (incoming Freshman Moritz Wagner looks promising), that three pointer-heavy offense will be frightening to go up against.

5 Overrated Teams

(5 Teams that a lot of people are expecting far too much out of going into the season)

Villanova (Coaches Poll - 9, AP - 11, My Ranking - 28)

The Coaches Poll and AP have Villanova in the top ten. How do they figure that? Sure, Big East Player of the Year Ryan Arcidiacono is back to run the point and big man Daniel Ochefu is there to shore up the middle. The other starters are all gone though. In total. Over 40% of the minutes and scoring are gone from last year's squad which relied on its balance. Top 20 recruit Jalen Brunson (PG) will help. Maybe a top 25 rating you could talk me into, but there is no way this team will be one of the 10 best either by the beginning or end of the season.

California (Coaches Poll - 14, AP - 14, My Ranking - 29)

The speculation for this team is crazy. They lost about a third of their production from last year, which is pretty standard. Cal has the opposite problem of Gonzaga. They return everyone in their back court and lost their front court. Guards Jordan Matthews, Tyrone Wallace, and Jabari Bird could match any threesome in the country. The frontcourt will rely on a pair of top ten recruits (Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb) though. Here's the problem. This wasn't even a top 100 team last year according to Kenpom. Moving from that to the top 25 is a lot to ask of any team and there's no guarantee that Rabb and Brown will both be ready to contribute. Coach Cunzo Martin has no history of Freshman successes. It took Jarnell Stokes until his Sophomore season to really do much and Robert Hubbs, a former top 30 recruit, didn't do much with his Freshman season at Tennessee either.

Notre Dame (Coaches Poll - 18, AP - 19, My Ranking - 43)

Notre Dame only lost two players (and one meaningless transfer). Those two players represented the top two in minutes played (more than 1/3 of the team's minutes) and the top scorer, rebounder, assister, stealer, and blocker. Zach Auguste is a very promising big man and Junior guards Demetrius Jackson and Steve Vasturia are solid players. Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton were the clear leaders of last year's team. The team is going to fall apart without them.

Wisconsin (Coaches Poll - 17, AP - 17, My Ranking - 51)

Here's another team that makes no sense being in any preseason top 25. Big Ten Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky is gone. Sam Dekker is gone to the NBA too. Josh Gasser and Traevon Jackson graduated. Point Guard Bronson Koenig and forward Nigel Hayes are the only players back who averaged more than 10 MPG. You know what Bo Ryan isn't known for: teams relying heavily on underclassmen. The incoming recruiting class isn't all that highly rated either.  Where is there enough for a top 25 ranking? I'll be impressed if they can even make it to the NCAA tournament.

Butler (Coaches Poll - 22, AP - 24, My Ranking - 34)

Honestly, this pick is just because I needed five teams and this is the team ranked highest in the Coaches and AP polls that I didn't include in my top 25. They were a top 20 team last year who lost two 30+ MPG players. All Conference players Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones are back for their Senior years. I'm not sure that the Bulldogs have a replacement for Center Kameron Woods (Hint: any team needing a big man to play more than 30 MPG has a thin front court). There's also no guarantee that NC St. transfer Tyler Lewis is the answer at Point Guard. They are still an NCAA tournament team, but probably not one of the 25 best.

5 Sleeper Team

(5 teams not cracking a lot of top 25 lists that could end the season much better)

San Diego St.

The defense is there. The Aztecs are stacked with forwards including Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Skylar Spencer. They just need someone who can score. I'm looking to sophomore forward Malik Pope, a former 5 star recruit who started putting it together toward the end of the season. Seriously, I'll go ahead and say it. This is a 3 seed if they get two players averaging more that 13 PPG.

SMU

What's going to happen? This postseason ban is going to hurt their motivation and I wouldn't be surprised if more transfers are on their way. This was a top 25 team last year, returning reigning American Athletic Conference Player of the Year, guard Nic Moore, All Conference big man Markys Kennedy, and plenty of other key contributors. Then there's Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye showing up at some point. This program is a mess though. There's a massive high/low for the season. Perhaps they'll have that "Fuck You" mentality of UConn a couple years ago, when they had their own postseason ban.

Georgetown

Less than 60% of the minutes played and scoring return which isn't great. But, I'm thinking of the Otto Porter team from a couple years ago, when an NBA-bound wing led a young Hoya's team to a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Senior D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera is an All-Conference Guard who will lead a roster of mostly underclassman. It would be foolish to expect to expect a season as good as the Otto Porter-led team. Top 25 is certainly possible with a player as good as Smith-Rivera.

Louisville

Mostly, I wanted to talk about Louisville. It's very unlikely that they do much this season. They lost their top four players in minutes, points (by a significant margin), and steals, top three in assists, and top two in rebounds. They lost Kentucky-level production without they same level recruiting class. Here's what's working in their favor though. They have two graduate transfer guards coming in who were All Conference players in their own conferences. Jaylen Johnson (PF) and Quentin Snider (PG) will get a chance to shine with Montrez Harrell and Terry Rozier out of the way. They bring back their whole rotation of Centers from last year. And, while the recruiting class isn't top in the country, it is pretty damn good, with top 50 players Donovan Mitchell (SG) and Deng Adel (SF) joining. I'm not bold enough to call them a top 25 team, but I'll be very pleased if they are. A case can be made for it. Oh, and there's some sex scandal thing. That might play negatively into things.

Valparaiso

Every year, some team comes out of nowhere from a mid-major conference and ends up with a solid seed. Take Northern Iowa last year for example or Harvard two years ago. When I'm looking for one of those, ignoring the obvious Wichitas and Gonzagas of the world, the team that jumps out at me is Valparaiso. They finished 61st according to Kenpom last year. They return over 98% of their scoring and minutes played from that team. That includes Horizon League Defensive Player of the Year Vashil Fernandez (F), All Conference forward Alec Peters, Conference 6th Man of the Year Jubril Adekoya (F), and All Freshman team guard Trevonn Walker. That's a lot. Look to early season games against Rhode Island and Oregon to make a statement.