College Basketball Preseason Top 25

This blog has been pretty exclusively used for my obsession with TV and movies. That takes up a lot of my time, and anyone tied to me on Facebook and Twitter can attest to how I litter walls and feeds with posts for all the things I watch. I have secret to admit though. I have other obsessions.
I was raised on the belief that college basketball is the only sport that matters. This, of course, is because I was raised as a University of Kentucky fan and what's the point in following football when that's your team? Granted, I have since accepted that no sport "matters", but if we want to get to ball-busting, at the end of the day, does anything really matter?

College basketball has a long off season. Since it corresponds with the TV season downswing, that means I have a lot of time to fill. The past couple of years that's meant pouring over news and recruiting in college basketball.

Now, I'm by no means a basketball expert. I let my heart get the best of me too much. I'm more interested in numbers than intangibles. And, I have surprisingly bad court vision for someone who watches as many games as I do. Still, this year I decided to leave a [digital] paper trail of my predictions for the season, so when I say things like "I told you Michigan was being way overrated" or "People are selling on Louisville too early", I'll have something to point at to avoid being accused of jumping on any bandwagons.

So, here is my preseason top 25 (calculated completely independently of any other posted polls). If all goes according to plan, I'll have conference picks coming soon as well.

1. Kentucky Wildcats

I know, I know. Didn't we learn our lesson after last year when Kentucky was picked number 1? Well, yes and mostly no. First of all, I never liked them that high last year. Secondly, based on the tournament results, maybe it wasn't so premature after all. Finally, There's a lot more returning this year. After the draft (Julius Randle, James Young) and graduation (Jon Hood, Jarrod Polson), only returns 58% of their scoring and 66% of their minutes. That includes the top two scorers, and the top rebounder.
Still, that's only 3 of the top 10 rotation players on a deep team that adds a stacked recruiting class. There's been a lot of talk of the "platoon system" that Calipari is implementing. Regardless of whether that lasts, the simple fact is that Kentucky is 10+ deep with 9 McDonalds All Americans, 11 Rivals top 150 recruits, and depth at almost every position.
It is hard to see where this team falters. Then again, I'm not about to suggest they are impervious. Perimeter defense is a concern if the Harrisons fall back to last regular season form. It's still hard to see this team as anything but a 1 seed come tournament time.
[Update: KenPom #1 team in the country. Stayed #1 in the rankings all year. The word "historic" was used more than "basketball" to describe this team throughout the season. Final results be damned, Kentucky was the best team this year.]

2. Arizona Wildcats

Like Kentucky, Arizona lost it's two top scorers (Nick Johnson, Aaron Gordon) and top rebounder (Gordon) to the draft. They return nearly an identical amount of their minutes (65%) and scoring (59%) as Kentucky. They also have a stacked recruiting class. They potentially have the same depth as Kentucky, but Sean Miller isn't known for developing Freshman as quickly as Coach Cal and there's definitely some questions about how Brandon Ashley will be returning from last season's injury. It's looking like quite the showdown for the two wildcat teams this season. I'd question anyone who doesn't have them in the top two positions going into the season. Some seasons lack a true upper-tier of teams. This is not going to be one of them.
[Update: #2 team this season according to Kenpom. Perhaps you could argue that I slightly overrated them due to the Wisconsin loss, but that's also what you could call a bad matchup.]

3. Duke Blue Devils

This is not a sure thing in the way the top two spots are. Duke only returns 47% of their minutes and 38% of their scoring. The draft departures of Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood to go along with the graduations of a lot of rotation players leave a lot of pressure on the Freshman to produce. Lucky for Duke, they have probably the best recruiting class of anyone, headlined by PG Tyus Jones and C Jahil Okafor. In fact, Duke has an abundance of riches at the Point Guard position. That can only help. While Duke did lose five of the top eight rotation players from last season, the three who return (Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, and Amile Jefferson) are talented and experienced enough to carry them through any growing pains as the Freshman adapt to the college game. Once those freshman do develop though, every other team better be ready.
[Update: According to final results, you could argue that I should've picked them higher. Kenpom only put them at #4, but given that they beat the #3 team twice, I'm not so sure I agree.]
 
4. Wisconsin Badgers

Here's one that I'm not convinced about. Wisconsin returns 82% of their minutes from last season, 81% of their scoring, and seven of their top eight rotation players from a Final Four team. That includes 2014 Big Ten Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky and perhaps the most talented recruit Bo Ryan has ever had in Sam Dekker.
The blow against them is that I don't see where that next gear is coming from. Bo Ryan has a history of making high seeds out of low talent teams that lose early in the NCAA tournament. The recruiting class isn't highly regarded and I'm hard pressed to find a player on the roster who isn't playing to his full potential already. I'm slotting them at four because even if they are as good as last year, that sounds right, but there's a chance they could be passed up by more dynamic teams come March.
[Update: Another one that I'm saying I nailed.I had them at 4. Kenpom had them at 3. Runner up in the tournament. Yeah, they deserved to be this high.]

5. Louisville Cardinals

As I said, I have a bias. This ranking is almost entirely off my trust in Rick Pitino. Louisville lost a lost this off season. They only return 56% of their minutes from last season and 54% of their scoring. Granted, those stats include Chane Behannan and Kevin Ware leaving mid-season. No, the big question mark is how much Russ Smith matters and, to a lesser extent, Luke Hancock. If Terry Rozier can even match 75% of what Russ did for the team, they are in great shape. If not, it's going to be a long season. On paper, this is one of Pitino's best recruiting classes ever, but he's made a career of proving those rankings wrong (just compare the Russ/Dieng class to the Behannan/Blackshear one). If nothing else, Louisville has as strong a starting five as anyone in the country. Their depth is the biggest concern.
[Update: My first big miss. Then again, they were an OT away from the Final Four, but whatever. I still don't get this team. The bench was overflowing with great recruits that Pitino never used. One could argue that Jones poisoned too much of the season to recover. They should've been better. Maybe not #5 though.]

6. Villanova Wildcats

It's looking like the year of the Wildcat if my predictions hold. I don't know why more people aren't as high on Villanova. They return 78% of their minutes and scoring from last season. The only major loss is James Bell. That's a big loss, as he was their top scorer. There's a lot still there though. This is a team that had a pretty impeccable non-Creighton record and got derailed by Shabazz Napier and the Huskies in the tournament (they weren't alone). Ryan Arcidiacono and Co. will dominate the Big East this season and possibly more.
[Update: Kenpom #6. My #6. They were upset in the tournament because they weren't a dynamic enough team, but I'll let the regular season numbers do the talking.]

7. North Carolina Tar Heels

The hope for UNC is that this season will be addition through subtraction. On paper, losing James McAdoo hurts, as does Leslie McDonald graduating, but this team looks a lot more well rounded without them. Oh, and Marcus Paige is an absolute beast. Roy Williams is bringing in another strong recruiting class and there is not a single returning player who is anywhere near his potential. It's about time that Williams had another world beater of a team like in 2005 and 2009. I really do think this team goes as far as Paige does though. If he's not in the National Player of the Year discussion then something has gone terribly wrong.
[Update: Maybe I overrated them a bit. 7 is a bit higher than Kenpom and I had them much better in their conference than they really were. Paige's nagging injuries played a big part in this, and that they could never get a collective shooting stroke.]

8. Gonzaga Bulldogs

The is arguably my biggest reach in my top 25. I believe this year's Bulldogs will be better than the 1 seed, Kelly Olynyk led team in 2013. Yes, they bring back less than 60% of their scoring and minutes from last season. But, the returnees include four year starting PG Kevin Pangos (he lead the 2013 team too), post-force Przemek Karnowski, and glue guys Gary Bell and Kyle Dranginis. Then there's one of Mark Few's best recruiting classes ever. The deciding factor is the transfers. Former Kentucky top recruit Kyle Wiltjer gets to finally prove himself in a system that fits his strengths, USC graduate transfer Byron Wesley is immediately eligible to add backcourt depth, and former Vandy star guard Eric McClellan should be eligible for all or half of the season. I am incredibly high on Gonzaga and I hope it's not a pie in my face moment to call them my Final Four sleeper pick this season. Unless they completely give up on defense, they are going to be good.
[Update: I'm absolutely giving myself credit for rating Gonzaga as I did. 8 was a reach in the preseason. I certainly couldn't find another poll with them even that high. By the end of the season, Kenpom had them at #7 and no intelligent fan argued about them getting a 2 seed, unless they thought they should've been a 1. I never thought Sabonis would be this good this fast.]

9. Virginia Cavaliers

The question with Virginia is whether the star of the team is the system or the players. When you look at the Cavaliers, they look pretty good for the season. 70% of the scoring and minutes return and seven of the top nine players (departing are top rebounder Akil Mitchel and draft pick Joe Harris). As with last year's team, it's assumed that Tony Bennett's defense will keep them in contention for the ACC title, but this wouldn't be the first time that a team surprises everyone one season and falters completely the next once people have expectations for them.
[Update: Yeah, I maybe undersold them. I thought 9 was two high in the preseason. Instead, they were one of the five best teams all year long and if not for a Justin Anderson injury, would've certainly shaken up the NCAA tournament more.]

10. VCU Rams

Are the Rams for real? Ever since that surprise Final Four in 2011, people have been predicting big things for them. Shaka Smart's HAVOC system is well-known throughout college basketball and this is a pivotal season for the team. This is the best recruiting class Smart has ever had. Losing Juvonte Reddic and Rod Brandenberg will hurt, but as long as at least one of the big man recruits develops, this will be an imposing defensive force who walks through the A-10 with ease.
[Update: The Briante Weber injury certainly couldn't be predicted. Even with him, they were never top 10 good.]

11. Kansas Jayhawks

Bill Self is a god amongst coaches. His ability to reload his Kansas teams for the past ten consecutive conference-winning seasons is damn near unfathomable. Every time I doubt him, he manages to replace some Morris twins with a Thomas Robinson. As a result, I've seen polls putting this Kansas team as high as the top five. That's ridiculous. This team has no point guard in place and lost half of it's points and scoring to the draft, graduation, and transfers. As much as I like Wayne Selden Jr. and Perry Ellis, they are not the foundation of a Final Four team. The odds are low that Kelly Oubre and Cliff Alexander end up as good as Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiib. I don't doubt that the team develops into a strong unit, but I have trouble seeing how it competes with the top ten teams.
[Update: They got a 2 seed, sure, but they weren't all that good. After those top 7 teams, there was a big drop off and Bill Self's coaching kept them a step ahead. I'm calling 11 dead on.]

12 Texas Longhorns

If I could only trust Rick Barnes to follow through, I'd have Texas as a top ten team without batting an eyelash. Analytically, they were a top 40 team last year. They return every starter, 94% of their minutes and scoring, nine of their top ten rotation players, and bring in top ten recruit Myles Turner to bolster and already formidable frontcourt. Absolutely everything is working for the team except that Barnes is known for folding under the weight of expectations (see: The 2009-10 team or a 2007 team featuring Kevin Durant, DJ Augustine, Damion James, and Dexter Pittman not making the Final Four as evidence). By all means, they should be the favorite in the Big 12.
[Update: Here's where it starts getting embarrassing. This is former Texas coach, Rick Barnes' fault though. I stand by everything I said about the team in the preseason. They didn't have enough guards though and the Isaiah Taylor injury killed their ability to build cohesion. I never should've believed a team could overcome Barnes' ability to fuck it up.]

13. Florida Gators

Does anyone else remember 2008? After winning back to back national championships in 2006 and 2007, Billy Donavan's 2008 team lost most of its lineup and underperformed, despite being stacked with talent. Michael Frazier is the top returning player. Rising sophomores Kasey Hill and Chris Walker should thrive without last year's senior class in their way. Then there's another strong Donovan recruiting class. I want to call them a lock for second in the SEC, but I could really see them falling apart entirely and landing somewhere in the middle.
[Update:After writing this, why did I rank them. I doubted the team, yet I let all the other preseason polls influence me, or the recruiting rankings, or the fact that Billy Donovan is a great coach. In the future, I'll remember 2008 and 2015.]

14. Wichita State Shockers

Last year's mid-major darlings should be good again. The question is how good. They return the entire backcourt of last year's impressive team (Fred Van Vleet, Ron Baker, Tekele Cotton). The big concern is in the frontcourt. Cleanthony Early was the most important player on last year's team. His post presence allowed them to compete with anyone. Without that, bigger teams can easily exploit the Shockers. Hopefully JC transfers Bush Wamukota and Tevin Glass can fill that need for them. I'm not sure that I believe in that to happen. I do believe that that backcourt can keep the Shockers relevant throughout the season though.
[Update: I undersold slightly, but not much. They never did figure that frontcourt out and it hurt them all year.]
 
15. SMU Mustangs

They lost top recruit Emmanuel Mudiay. That sucks. He was a major coup for Larry Brown and propelled the team into a Final Four contender. Here's the thing though. Mudiay was a talent infusion, not a positional need. They already have a good PG in Nic Moore. Shawne Williams and Nick Russell logged a lot of minutes last season. Other than them, eight of the top ten rotation players on a deep team are back. They also bring in former Xavier standout Justin Martin. In a down year for the league, it's hard to see them not winning the AAC.
[Update: You know, I predicted they'd be better than they actually were, but they had suspensions and injuries to deal with. This wasn't that big of a miss.]

16. Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Huskers arrived ahead of schedule last year, making it into the NCAA tournament and finishing in the top 50 according to Pomeroy. This year, they return seven of their top nine players (4/5s of their scoring and minutes), bring in a couple good recruits, and introduce former Rivals top 150 recruit in JC transfer Moses Abraham. The core of Terran Petteway, Shavon Shields, and rising sophomore Tai Webster is going to make Nebraska formidable in the Big Ten.
[Updated: Now this was a big miss. KenPom ranked them at 133 to end the season. They folded under the weight of expectations and melted when put under the spotlight.]

17. Pittsburgh Panthers

Lamar Patterson and Talib Zanna are big losses for the Panthers. That's their top two scorers and rebounders (and top man in assists and minutes played). Luckily, those are the only two players gone from a team that was underrated most of last season. I'm placing them this high because I remember Pittsburgh before the last couple unremarkable seasons. Jamie Dixon is a great coach and doesn't need the best recruits to make a top 25 squad. Cameron Wright and James Robinson will be called on to do a lot more this season.
[Update: Another swing and a miss. Dixon has underachieved to long to have the benefit of the doubt from me anymore.]

18. Iowa State Cyclones

I'd've loved to see Connecticut play Iowa St. without an injured Georges Niang. There's a good chance we'd be looking at different national champions if that happened. The importance of Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane last year cannot be overstated. Fred Hoiberg only plays seven deep and they were the best players on the team. Luckily, Niang is back along with Monte Morris, Dustin Hogue, and Naz Lang. Throw in super transfer Bryce Dejean-Jones from UNLV and you have a team that could be every bit as good as last year's.
[Update: They turned out to be better than I expected, although their first round loss in the NCAA tournament betrays that observation. Considering the teams I picked around them, this is one of my smaller mistakes.]

19. Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles had a quietly good team last year. They were a top 50 team according to Pomeroy. They bring back 65% of their minutes and six of their top nine players, including leading scorer Aaron Thomas. Top 30 recruit Xavier Rathan-Mayers is finally eligible too. It doesn't look like they'll be relying on any seniors, so however good they are this year, they should be even better next.
[Update: I picked them a year ahead of schedule. Next year, maybe. This past season, certainly not.]

20. Connecticut Huskies

The defending national champions have a lot of work to do. A top 25 ranking almost feels premature considering all they lost. They only bring back 41% of their minutes played and 35% of their scoring from last season. Shabazz Napier, DeAndre Daniels, Neils Giffey, Tyler Olander. They're all gone. Coach Kevin Ollie is hoping that senior Ryan Boatright can step up like Napier did after the departure of Kemba Walker. NC St. transfer Rodney Purvis has been drawing raves after redshirting last season. That should shore up the backcourt and another year of development from Phillip Nolan and Amida Brimah should give them a serviceable frontcourt. Add in top 20 SG recruit Daniel Hamiltion and this could be a case of reloading, not rebuilding.
[Update: A Top 25 was was premature as it turns out. I mainly picked them because I assumed my dislike of them for beating Kentucky colored my vision of them. I turns out that my doubts were clear eyed. Boatright is no Napier.]

21. San Diego State Aztecs

How important are guard really? Last year's team was an excellent defensive unit that entirely relied on senior Xavier Thames for scoring. He's gone, as is top big man Josh Davis. The rest of the core is still in tact though and they are bringing in five star SF Malik Pope. The danger (and the thing holding them back in the rankings) is that of the top nine predicted rotation players, only two of them are guards (Aqeel Quinn and Dakari Allen). Unless a proper facilitator steps up between them, this could be a case of a having a lot of talent and no way to get the ball to them.
[Update: More important than having no guards is having no scoring. Kenpom rated them at 27. I wasn't so far off, even with that nonexistent offense.]

22. Minnesota Gophers

Remember when I was talking about bias? Well, the Pitino name is going to get you far with me. In his first year, Richard Pitino won the NIT with Tubby Smith's players. While losing Austin Hollins (and others) hurts, they bring back two 30 mpg guards in Seniors Deandre Mathieu and Andre Hollins. Pitino doesn't bring in a star-studded recruiting class, but if even one of his big man recruits pans out, then the Gophers are looking at more than the NIT this season.
[Update: Nope. Wrong. They weren't ready for the big time.]

23. Michigan State Spartans

This is tough. The Spartans are essentially gutted from last season. They return only half their minutes played and 39% of their scoring. Tom Izzo is a legendary coach though and Branden Dawson is expected to step out of the shadows and have a breakout season. Izzo may be called on to rely on Freshman more than he's accustomed to. Until they are ready, there are enough rotation players from last year's team who could thrive with starter's minutes. Then again, the team could stumble out the gate and never recover too. That's why they're only #23.
[Update: They made the Final Four, but it was also a surprise run. They came together more than I expected.]

24. Ohio State Buckeyes

A lot of Big Ten teams are on the fringe of the top 25 this year. Like Michigan St, the Buckeyes lose three of their top guys from last year: defensive ace and team leader Aaron Craft, lead scoring option LaQuinton Ross, and glue guy Lenzelle Smith Jr. This will be a team looking for an identity since none of the returning players have proven themselves as leaders. Thad Matta is hoping top 30 recruits D'Angelo Russell and Keita Bates-Diop can help immediately and graduate transfer Anthony Lee should pair with Amir Williams to form a strong frontcourt. Matta has a way of changing everything with a single recruiting class. This is certainly a good year to do it if he can.
[Update: I was about right on this. I credited the transfers too much and D'Angelo Russell not enough. It evened out though.]

25. Kansas State Wildcats

Might as well end the top 25 with some wildcats too. Marcus Foster is a name you should know. He was an unheralded recruit last year. He looks to lead the team this year. Kansas St. returns four of their top five players (and seven of their top ten) and brings in top transfers Justin Edwards and Stephen Hurt. On paper, this is a better recruiting class than the one that accelerated the rebuild last year. I'm not sure they are a dynamic enough team to beat the top teams in the Big 12, but they should linger around the top 25 all year long.
[Update: Marcus Foster. That "name you should know"? Well, it turns out he had some discipline problems I didn't know about. Oops.]

In addition to my top 25, I want to list five teams who I think are being overrated going into the season. That's not to say I don't see them making the NCAA tournament. I just think any top 25 discussion for this is a mistake.

Syracuse

I keep seeing other people ranking Syracuse in the preseason polls and I'm not sure why. What are the odds that they have another Michael Carter Williams or Tyler Ennis with freshman PG Kaleb Joseph? Even if he is that good, where's the replacement for CJ Fair or Jeremi Grant? Freshman PF Chris McCullough should be good to bolster the frontcourt. They're thin in the wings still. It's hard to reload every year and this is looking like the year when the cupboards are too bare to be a top team.
[Update: This is almost mean now. Even before the sanctions and the post-season ban, they weren't making the tournament or even sniffing it. Go me!]

Oklahoma

Another popular top 25 pick. I considered them because they bring back most of their players on a well-balanced team. I can't point to any reason in particular for them not to be in a top 25 pick other than this. When I look at them, I see Wisconsin most years: a team that plays to its capacity during the regular season, gets a high seed in the tournament, then loses early because they can't "go to eleven" to pull from Spinal Tap.
[Update: I didn't know they'd get TyShawn Thomas. I still would've underrated them. Maybe they'd be in my Top 25 though.]

Stanford

They bring back Chasson Randle, Anthony Brown, and Stefan Nastic. The a strong core. Not enough however. The team is otherwise gutted. Johnny Dawkins has a strong recruiting class coming in, but no one that looks like a transformative talent. They'll need time.
[Update: I didn't think they'd be better than last year's team and they weren't. No awful, but not great either.]
 
Michigan

How much does Michigan have to lose before people think twice about ranking them? Yes, last year was a marvelous thing. Down two draft picks and preseason All-American Mitch McGary out after 8 games, it was safe to write off the Wolverines. Then Nik Stauskas and company's shooting pulled them through to the elite eight. Well, McGary is gone, as are two more draft picks (Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III). Oh, and their only big men graduated (Jordan Morgan) or transferred (Jon Horford). What's left is a solid PG in Derrick Walton and likely lottery pick Caris LaVert. They will have no frontcourt and no depth this year. Sure, guards win championships but this is pushing it.
[Update: Yep! There's that down season I predicted. Remember NJIT? That was fun.]

New Mexico

I laughed when I saw the Lobos getting some top 25 votes in other polls. If Michigan is depleted, I don't even know the word for New Mexico. Bringing back only 26% our their scoring, they lost their top three players and it's a big drop off to the fourth. Coach Craig Neal didn't bring in any recruits to speak of and the team wasn't all that deep last year to begin with. They'll be lucky to have a winning record in the Mountain West. Top 25 is out of the question.
[Update: They were a top 100 team. That's still better than I thought.]