I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing
Live-Action, Animated, and Documentary Short
Song & Score
Animated Feature
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Original and Adapted Screenplay
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
CAS - Cinema Audio Society Awards
Golden Reel - Motion Picture Sound Editors Award
Similar to the Screenplay awards, the Sound awards are difficult to parse for several reasons. There are two great strategies to use when picking the winners. The most common is laziness: Mixing and Editing go to the same movie. That's happened 10 of the last 20 years. The other is the proven principal of "editing for war and mixing for musicals" (I also heard this described as "bullets and Broadway" recently, which I love). That has happened 5 of the last 20 times depending on how you classify things, almost all of these in the 10 years since they opened Sound Editing up from 3 to 5 nominees.
The BAFTA only has a generic Sound award, not distinguishing between Editing and Mixing like the Oscars. It corresponds with Mixing more often though calling 12 of the last 20 winners. The only time is predicted the Sound Editing winner and not the Mixing winner in that time was 2003 (Master and Commander). So, unless you are expecting a sweep, only use it for Mixing.
The Cinema Audio Society is the guild award for Sound Mixers. It isn't very reliable as an Oscar harbinger. That award has only matched the Oscar winner for Sound Mixing 11 of the last 20 times. Like the BAFTA Sound award, it has nominated the eventual Oscar winner 19 times in that span. The one omission was recent though (Whiplash in 2014).
The Golden Reel is the Sound Editors' guild award. In previous years, I haven't bothered tracking it because they split the award up so much (Dialogue/ADR, Effect/Foley, Music, etc.) that it's hard to suss out a frontrunner. Even when there's a consensus, it can go the other way with the Oscar (Ex. 2009, The Hurt Locker won the Oscar after Avatar won multiple Golden Reels). Of the 19 years I could track down for the award [it's hard to go back sometimes and I don't always trust IMDB], the Oscar winner for Sound Editing has won one of the major Golden Reels* 14 times. The eventual winner has always managed to be nominated for at least one Golden Reel, even if it's just barely in some cases.
*There's some shifting of the category names, but the awards boil down to Dialogue and ADR in a Live-Action Feature, Sound Effects and Foley in a Live-Action Feature, Music in a Feature Film, Music in a Musical Film, Sound Editing in a Foreign Feature, and Sound Editing in an Animated Feature.
Sound Mixing
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
CAS - Sound Mixing - Winner
If La La Land doesn't win Sound Mixing, then why am I even bothering? Look, musicals don't win the Oscar for Best Picture often lately. The only true musical of the last 20 years to win was Chicago in 2002 which also won this award. I suppose I could be a little worried that Hugo beat The Artist here in 2011. However, Hugo dominated the tech awards that year. There's no dominant tech movie like that this year except maybe La La Land, which only cements my pick.
Hacksaw Ridge
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
CAS - Sound Mixing - Nominee
Well, I'm going with "Bullets and Broadway" for the Editing/Mixing split this year, but if I'm wrong, the best money is on one film to win both.
Arrival
BAFTA - Sound - Winner
The sound is distinctive in Arrival, which I associate more with Sound Editing. The BAFTA win shows some support for Arrival. And, Arrival isn't a British production, so they had no vested interest in it winning.
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
CAS - Sound Mixing - Nominee
If The Force Awakens didn't win last year, I'm not assuming Rogue One will now.
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Fun fact: this is Greg P. Russell's 17th Oscar nomination without a single win. I don't assume Oscar voters care enough for an "it's his time" narrative to take hold, but he's earned it.
Sound Editing
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Winner
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Winner
Golden Reel - Music - Nominee
As I said, the BAFTA win is only useful for picking the Sound Editing Oscar if you expect a sweep. Hacksaw Ridge is the most likely of any movie to sweep this year, although it's unlikely. By far, the Effects/Foley Golden Reel win is the most indicative of the Oscar winner. More than anything I'm trusting my gut which is telling me "go with the war movie".
La La Land
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
Golden Reel - Music in a Musical- Winner
Folks, this is uncharted territory. Musicals simply don't get nominated for Sound Editing. If you don't believe me, go check. I'll wait....The closest thing you will find is a couple animated films like The Polar Express and Aladdin. So then, the question is if La La Land love will extend as far as winning the award or if being nominated at all is a big enough coup. If you look at the recent Best Picture winners with the most Oscar wins, the run away freight trains on Oscar night (Titanic - 11 wins, The Return of the King - 11, The English Patient - 9, Slumdog Millionaire - 8, Shakespeare in Love - 7, Dances with Wolves - 7, Schindler's List - 7), only Titanic won for Sound Editing. In other words, this award likes to go its own way.
Arrival
BAFTA - Sound - Winner
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Nominee
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Nominee
Golden Reel - Music - Nominee
That's a lot of Golden Reel nominations. While the BAFTA win isn't much, it isn't nothing either.
Deepwater Horizon
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
Golden Reel - Effects/Foley - Nominee
If it was up to me, I'd rank this maybe behind Hacksaw Ridge if not the outright favorite to win. In terms of Oscar chances though, there's not much hope.
Sully
Golden Reel - Dialogue/ADR - Nominee
They had to round out the field somehow.
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