Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

It's really hard to track the supporting actress race. There's a lot of category fraud that goes on. All the time, co-leads are moved to supporting categories where they have a better chance to win. Just last year, Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara were called supporting actresses in leading roles. Thankfully, this year is much more stable.

Viola Davis (Fences)
Golden Globe - Supporting Actress - Winner
SAG - Supporting Actress - Winner
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Winner
Well, this is easy. Everything is working in Davis' favor. She has won every precursor award. That's happened 6 times in the last two decades. Every time that's happened, the actress also won an Oscar. She's won against a virtually identical list of actresses each time. She's virtually a lead in Fences. There is a feeling that it's "her time". Also, after two years of #OscarSoWhite, don't think voters wouldn't be delighted to have someone of color getting a trophy. Oh yeah, and she's incredible in the movie. This might be even more of a lock than all the La La Land wins.

Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Golden Globe - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
No one else is winning, but if I have to pick someone second, I might as well go with the frontrunner before Fences came into the picture. Williams isn't in Manchester enough to make this competitive.

Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Golden Globe - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
It doesn't matter how I order the rest of these. Harris has been a staple throughout the season and does great work in Moonlight.

Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Golden Globe - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
Kidman is better than I expected in Lion. She already has her Oscar though. No need to get her another yet.

Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Golden Globe - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
The same thing I said about Kidman goes for Spencer.