Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.


Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

It's the second year in a row without a mandate for Supporting Actor. All three precursor awards went in a different direction, so the history of each precursor should be considered. The Golden Globes were on such a hot streak until last year. From 2007-2014 they matched the Oscar winner, then went with Sylvester Stallone in 2015. You'd think the SAG award would be reliable. The actors are the largest branch of the Motion Picture Academy after all. They've called 13 of the last 20 winners and only failed to nominate the winner in 2012 (Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained). The BAFTAs have matched the Oscar winner 8 of the last 10 years. The only exceptions were 2013, when Dallas Buyers Club oddly was ignored by the British Academy and 2010, when they couldn't help themselves from choosing a winner from the English-centric The King's Speech (Geoffrey Rush). In the decade before that run though, they only matched the Oscar winner once.

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Winner
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
He's just gotta win, right? I'm still pretty stunned that he lost the Golden Globe. I figured the BAFTA was less likely. The SAG win is key, especially since it was against 4 of the 5 Oscar nominees. The Moonlight ensemble is so strong, someone has to win.

Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Perhaps I'm being foolish for thinking he stands a chance. This would be the first time since 1998 that someone won this award without winning any of the precursors. He got his Oscar finally in 2009, so there's no "it's his time" push going on. It's the kind of unassuming role that could sneak up on people.

Dev Patel (Lion)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Winner
The BAFTA win helps a lot and he's arguably the lead for Lion. He's one of the three Oscar nominees that was recognized by all three of the precursor groups. His BAFTA win reminds me of the Geoffrey Rush win for The King's Speech in 2010: the Brits rewarding one of their own.

Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
The SAG nomination is nice. He's the third most likely cast member from Manchester to win an Oscar. Given that Casey Affleck's chances are fading and Michelle Williams is all but out of contention for hers, that puts Hedges' odds quickly approaching 0.

Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
His cast-mate Aaron Taylor-Johnson got all the love from the Globes and BAFTAs. That Shannon got nominated at all beat some tough odds.