Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
VES - Visual Effects Guild's Award

Last year, the Visual Effects award was the biggest surprise of the night. The only way to predict Ex Machina would win was the roll of a dice. There's a worry that it could happen again this year. I'm assuming it was a fluke though, because, well, thinking otherwise would defeat the purpose of these posts.
The BAFTA award for Visual Effects is the more reliable precursor. It's nominated the eventual Oscar winner 19 times in the last 20 years and predicted the winner 13 of those times. Even better, it's called 12 of the last 15 Oscar winners.
The Visual Effects Society Awards are tricky. They give out many awards, ranging from animated performance to created environments to effect simulations. The the most predictive for the Oscar is the award for Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature. Of the 14 years they been handing out awards before this year, that award has matched the Oscar winner 9 times and at least nominated the Oscar winner 12 times.

The Jungle Book
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Winner
VES - Visual Effects (Live-Action) - Winner
The BAFTA and VES winners have agreed with each other 11 times before this year. 10 of those times, that movie also won the Oscar for Visual Effects. The one exception? That would be last year, when The Force Awakens was beaten by Ex Machina. Still, it's hard to watch The Jungle Book and not assume it is a lock. It's on that level of past winners like Gravity, Life of Pi, Inception, or Avatar.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Nominee
VES - Visual Effects (Live-Action) - Nominee
Like The Jungle Book, Rogue One was all over the VES awards. Even though it came away empty handed [for the awards I tracked], I'm still putting it with the next best odds. It could be a make-up call for not picking The Force Awakens last year. That isn't the norm for the Oscars, but it's possible that they might decide Star Wars needs a win.

Kubo and the Two Strings
VES - Visual Effects (Animated) - Winner
Animated movie almost never get recognized for their visual effects. It last happened over two decades ago with The Nightmare Before Christmas (which didn't win). I don't think its odds are very good, but it could win just for being different.

Doctor Strange
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Nominee
VES - Visual Effects (Live-Action) - Nominee
Here's a tid-bit of knowledge. The last Marvel movie to win the Visual Effects Oscar was Spider-Man 2 back in 2004. Doctor Strange is the best nominee Marvel's had in a while. I'm pretty sure voters will look at it as too similar to something like Inception to give it the win.

Deepwater Horizon
It actually got a couple secondary wins from the VES awards. I also wouldn't be against the film winning. It just doesn't seem all that likely.