Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actor

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing
Live-Action, Animated, and Documentary Short
Song & Score
Animated Feature

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

The trouble with the Lead Actor Oscar is that if there isn't a total consensus, prognostication falls apart quickly*. The SAG award is the most reliable award. It has matched the Oscar winner 16 of the last 20 times. Technically, 17 if you count 2000 when Benicio del Toro switched from Supporting to Lead and still won. They've also never missed at least nominating the winner. The Golden Globes are a little shakier sitting at 14 of the last 20 winners (and that's with splitting the award in two - Drama & Comedy/Musical). They often get caught up in the critical hype before a more general, populist wave rolls in. The BAFTA award is fine, but has some weird omissions, like when it left Matthew McConaughey out in 2013. In total, the BAFTA has matched the Oscar winner 12 of the last 20 times (and a slightly better 7/10 in the last decade).

*And even with a consensus, surprises can happen. That's how Denzel won for Training Day in 2001.

Denzel Washington (Fences)
Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actor - Winner
I don't know what to do with the Fences omission. Is it because it was released so late in England*? Do the Brits not like Denzel as much as Americans**? I don't know, but his exclusion makes Affleck's BAFTA win almost meaningless when it comes to Oscar predicting. Denzel's SAG win is huge. After all, the Screen Actors Guild hasn't disagreed with the Oscar voters since Johnny Depp in 2003 for the first Pirates of the Caribbean movie. For the record though, this would be the first time an actor would win the Oscar after only winning the SAG award out of the big three. Then again, Denzel won in 2001 without any precursor wins. That was also a weird case though. Russell Crowe won all the precursors for A Beautiful Mind before losing to Denzel for Training Day. However, the year before, Crowe had won the Oscar for Gladiator without any precursor victories, so Oscar voters felt less of an imperative to vote for him again.
Lastly, in a race this close, I should address the elephant in the room: #OscarSoWhite. Don't think that after two years of being accused of institutional racism, the Oscar voters wouldn't love to give three of the four acting awards to people of color. Is that a cynical way of looking at it? Yes, but no more than #OscarSoWhite. For the record, I am in no way saying that Denzel would only be getting a win because he's black or is in some way undeserving of a win. All sorts of superficial things tip the scales all the time that have nothing to do with the performances (late-breaking scandals, actors not actively campaigning on the award circuit, an "it's his/her time" narrative).

*It opened on 2/10. The BAFTA Awards were handed out on 2012.
**He has never been nominated for a BAFTA award despite two Oscar wins.

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Winner
SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Lead Actor - Winner
At first glance, Affleck looks like the favorite. More wins. More nominations. More critical adoration in general throughout the season. A lot of things are picking away at his chances though and making him look like a classic late season flame-out.
Sometimes, the Globes get caught up in the critical praise. That certainly got Mickey Roarke a win for The Wrestler over Sean Penn in Milk in 2008. It probably explains that About Schmidt win for Jack Nicholson in 2002. The BAFTA win isn't nearly as impressive without Denzel Washington in the mix. Also, stories have been circulating about a sexual harassment lawsuit against Affleck on the set of his 2010 film I'm Still Here. Not much is known about it because it was settled out of court, so legally he nor anyone else can make a statement on it. Regardless of whatever the truth is about the situation, it's certainly going to have some effect on voters. Finally, his Manchester by the Sea performance is very internalized. Awards voters respond much better to a big, flashy performance like Denzel's. It's a small wonder that Affleck has stayed in the thick of it this late into the season. All combined, Affleck's chances are fading by the day, and I'm taking the gamble that he's been fading enough for Denzel to overtake him.

Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee
Golden Globes - Lead Actor Comedy/Musical - Winner
BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee
Look, a win here is only if La La Land dominates historically. I'm pretty convinced that La La Land will have a big night, and even I don't believe Gosling stands a chance. That said, I think that his work in this isn't being given the credit it deserves. He makes it look easy. He is a level below Affleck and Washington though.

Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee
Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Nominee
BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee
I'm glad he's being recognized so much this season. This simply isn't an Oscar winning performance in any year.

Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee
Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Nominee
BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee
I'm pretty stunned he's stuck around this long.