Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing
Live-Action, Animated, and Documentary Short
Song & Score
Animated Feature
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Original and Adapted Screenplay
Sound Mixing & Editing
Director
Best Picture
Makeup and Hair-Styling

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
CDG  - Costume Designers Guild Award

Finally, the last of my predictions. There's a reason I'm tucking Costume Design away so late. The real reason is that the Costume Designers Guild hand their awards out very late and it takes a while to put these posts together. The thematically true reason is that Costume Design is a bit of an afterthought in the voting. It's a category that tends to award the most rather than the best. And, this year is potentially the toughest to call in several years. The BAFTA is only 9/20 for predicting the Oscar winner over the last 2 decades. It's on a hot streak right now. The BAFTA has matched the last 8 Oscar winners. That's a hell of a streak. And, you have to go back to 1999 for the last time they didn't even nominate the eventual Oscar winner. The CDG award is more consistent historically but lacks that kind of consistent recent success. The first couple years they handed out awards, it wasn't a great indicator. For the last 14 years though, one of the CDG winners also won the Oscar 9 times and they have at least nominated the Oscar winner every time.

Jackie
BATFA - Costume Design - Winner
CDG - Period Costume Design - Nominee
The BAFTA win is a big one. Period Costume work is where the lion's share of the Costume Design Oscar wins come from. 12 of the last 14 winners have been from period pieces.

La La Land
BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee
CDG - Contemporary Costume Design - Winner
Costume Design and Production Design are the second most correlated categories at the Oscars. When a film wins one, it's a little more than 50% likely to also win the other*. La La Land is my frontrunner for Production Design, so I have to assume it's in play for Costume Design. La La Land is also the only nominee with a CDG win.
Here's the problem: Contemporary costuming doesn't win the Oscar. La La Land's nomination is only the third nomination for a contemporary film in at least 15 years. The last winner that had contemporary costume design was The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert back in 1994. La La Land is no Priscilla, Queen of the Desert when it comes to Costume Design. It is a musical with a lot a flashy colors and an eye for retro-costuming. Perhaps that will be enough.

*The only two categories more tied to one another are Sound Mixing and Film Editing, interestingly enough.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee
CDG - Fantasy Costume Design - Nominee
Fantastic Beasts gets both period and fantasy costuming. That's not fair. It's like walking by a candy store with a child and expecting them to not say anything. Also, as I mentioned with La La Land, there's a correlation between Costume and Production Design. Fantastic Beasts is my current runner-up for Production Design, so that helps its odds slightly here.

Florence Foster Jenkins
BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee
CDG - Period Costume Design - Nominee
I has both a BAFTA and CDG nomination. They love period costuming.

Allied
BATFA - Costume Design - Nominee
With costuming broken into three categories for the CDG awards, it's troubling that Allied still couldn't get a nomination in a thinner field. Allied has good costuming but not attention-grabbing costuming that Oscar voters respond to.