Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing

Glossary:
Annie Awards - Awards for Animation 

Best Documentary Short

I haven't seen any of these. I've looked some things up, but if you are going to ignore any of my predictions, Documentary Short should top the list.

Joe's Violin
This sounds like a slam dunk. The most common winners for this award are for something that's tragic or something with a musical tie-in. Joe's Violin has music and the Holocaust in it.

The White Helmets
A documentary about Syrian civilian volunteer first-responders. Any of those words alone could win an Oscar.

Watani: My Homeland
Four Syrian refugee children try to adjust to life in Germany. I'm expecting the two Syrian documentaries to split the vote. If there was only one, that one would be the front runner.

Extremis
Follow around the doctors and nurses who work at an Oakland, CA ICU. I've heard this described as "a gut punch" and "hard to watch". In a vacuum, I could see this winning, but again, the Oscars are somewhat political. This doc isn't "of the moment" the way some others are or a cheerful distraction.

4.1 Miles
Another doc about refugees. This time, it's about the Greek Coast Guard workers who try to rescue refugees attempting to make it from Turkey to Lesbos.

Best Animated Short

Technically, this award does have the Annie Award for Shorts as a precursor. It's pretty useless though.

See my Short reaction

Piper
Annie - Animated Short - Winner
There is no clear front runner. Nothing that tugs at the heartstrings like Bear Story last year. Without that, I'll go with the prettiest looking short, which Piper is by a mile.

Pearl
Annie - Animated Short -Nominee
The first VR nominee ever and the shortest nominee this year. This reminds me of World of Tomorrow last year. It's visually distinctive in a way that forward-thinking voters could unite behind.

Borrowed Time
My favorite of the shorts. It feels a bit like a tryout for a larger film rather than something self-contained.

Blind Vaysha
Annie - Animated Short -Nominee
Frankly, I think the style of it will turn voters off. And, it doesn't really have a story.

Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Too long and meandering. The most cynical part of me isn't even convinced most voters will even watch it once they compare the 30 minute run time to the 5-7 minute lengths of the others.

Best Live-Action Short

Silent Nights
Look, the Oscars are political. Don't think a story about an immigrant refugee won't go unnoticed by the Oscar voters. Even though I think this short has some flaws in the storytelling, the pieces that make it up align too perfectly with what's going on in the U.S. while the voting was going on.

Timecode
Last year, I was pleased that voters went for the crowd-pleasing Stutterer over some really depressing shorts. If they vote with their hearts again, it's hard to see how Timecode loses. My guess is that La La Land will sate any need for fluff though.

Ennemis Interieurs
Another story about fear of immigrants. This one feels more like a response to Bush's America than Trump's, so I'm feeling better about Silent Nights.

Sing
That ending is delightful, but this iy is all fluff and not a tightly told story.

La Femme et le TGV
Too long. Too insignificant. I'm not sure how this could come away with the win.