Oscar Nomination Thoughts

The Oscar nominations were announced recently. Soon enough, I'll be coming out with my deep dives into the individual categories and how I think they will go. For now, I want to reflect on the nominations by themselves.

-La La Land: Tying the record for most nominations ever, it's almost unthinkable that La La Land won't run away with Best Picture and a lot of other awards. I'm hoping that the Academy spreads the love with the wins though. Damien Chazelle's directing seems like a lock to win, as do the Song, Score, and Sound Mixing awards that come standard with a popular musical. I would be fine if a lot of the other technical awards (Sound Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design) go somewhere else (although I'm rooting for it). Emma Stone probably should have more competition for Lead Actress than she does. Gosling is almost certain to lose and Original Screenplay isn't a guarantee. Make no mistake, this was my favorite film of 2016, so I'm happy with all the love it can get, but there's no need for 13 wins on Oscar night.

-Moonlight: If anything can give La La Land a run, it's Moonlight. I would have no issue with it winning and would be happy to call it a Best Picture winner even if it isn't my preferred pick. Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay feel like locks. However, there isn't a historical comparison I can come up with that favors Moonlight to pull off the Best Picture upset. Two years ago, Boyhood was the clear critical darling that lost to Birdman, which was all about Hollywood and making movies/plays. Sound familiar? There's a long history of critical favorites with a serious, sombre tone getting overtaking by lighter crowdpleasers as the season progresses: Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan, The King's Speech over The Social Network, Slumdog Millionaire over Benjamin Button. The opposite doesn't really happen. In that respect, the unprecedented nature of a Moonlight win would be fascinated to track.

-Arrival: I'm pretty confused by how Arrival can get 8 nominations, including Best Picture and Director, but not get one for Amy Adams. That's bizarre and a testament to how ridiculously stacked the Best Actress race was this year. Adams, after all, is an Oscar favorite (5 nominations). I'm tempted to call her next nomination, whatever it's for, a lock to get her a win.

-Kubo and the Two Strings: A rare Visual Effects nomination for an animated movie. Zootopia looks like the frontrunner, but I could see support shifting to Kubo.

-Meryl Streep: I wish there was a way to calculate if her speech at the Golden Globes got her the Oscar nomination. It sure feels like it. Florence Foster Jenkins was forgotten nearly everywhere else. The Golden Globes happened right as the nomination ballots went out for the Oscars. This isn't even a conspiracy theory. It just makes sense. That said, I'm not about to dispute a Meryl nomination.

-Hacksaw Ridge: The "steakeaters" have spoken. It's Hacksaw Ridge and not Sully that they backed this year. "Steakeaters" is, off course, a dismissive term that's thrown around to describe the old men who vote for movies that feel dated, simplistic, or just plain "Ooo-rah". Past nominees with the "Steakeater" vote include Bridge of Spies (2015) and American Sniper (2014). It's hard to go too far back, because this is very much a function of the expanded nominee field and the fact that after a decade or two, just about everything looks like a "steakeater" movie...Because they're old...Get it.
Regardless, I'm surprised to see Mel Gibson return to the Academy's attention, especially the Director's branch for this movie. His only other Oscar attention was when Braveheart came out of nowhere to clean up in 1996. The directors branch is notoriously inclusive (remember when Ben Affleck couldn't get nominated for Argo despite winning everywhere else?).

-O.J.: Made in America: This 7+ hour documentary, qualified by the letter of the law, not the spirit of it, and is the presumed frontrunner in the category. I don't really believe in the idea of nominees cancelling each other out normally. With OJ, 13th, and I Am Not Your Negro covering similar thematic ground, I do wonder if that may be in play this year. I still doubt it.

That's it. See you in a couple weeks.