Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actress

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing
Live-Action, Animated, and Documentary Short
Song & Score
Animated Feature
Lead Actor

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

Unlike the Lead Actor race, the Lead Actress race is done, despite anyone attempting to claim otherwise. The Golden Globes are incredibly reliable (17/20). The SAG award isn't far behind (15/20). The BAFTA award is decent (12/20). All of those should be a little higher because Kate Winslet's jump from Supporting to Lead in 2008 threw everything out of whack. The 8 times in the last 20 years that all three awards have gone to the same actress, she also won the Oscar.

Emma Stone (La La Land)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Comedy - Winner
SAG - Lead Actress - Winner
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Winner
The Lead Actress category is stacked this year and there really should be more debate about who will win. There isn't though. No actress who has been as dominant throughout the season has gone on to lose the Oscar. Stone also has the added boost of being in the likely Best Picture winner. Only 2 other actresses in the last two decades have won the Lead Actress award for being in the Best Picture winner (Gwyneth Paltrow for Shakespeare in Love in 1998, Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby in 2004)* and neither of them tore through the season like Stone. The other actresses nominated for the award won't even have speeches ready.

*Which, is an absurd stat that reflects the massive imbalance of good roles for women in good movies versus men.

Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
There's a strong argument to be made that Portman is better in Jackie than Stone is in La La Land. I'm not posting my "should win" predictions though.

Isabelle Hupert (Elle)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Winner
A lot of people are tricking themselves into believe some sort of "it's her time" story for Hupert. While it is kind of crazy that this is her first ever Oscar nomination, don't believe the hype. This isn't Marion Cotillard winning for La Vie en Rose in 2007. She was all over that award season with BAFTA and Globe wins. Hupert is a critical darling but didn't even manage a nomination by the more European leaning BAFTA.

Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Comedy - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
Her Golden Globe speech helped to secure her a spot in the field and because she's Meryl Streep, she was a staple throughout the season. This looks a lot more like the 16 times she's lost than the 3 times she's won.

Ruth Negga (Loving)
I was thrilled to see she made the cut. She has no momentum behind her and no chance to win.