Oscar Predictions: Best Director

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing
Live-Action, Animated, and Documentary Short
Song & Score
Animated Feature
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Original and Adapted Screenplay
Sound Mixing & Editing

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
DGA Award - Director's Guild of America

The Directing Oscar doesn't look like it's going to be very interesting this year. The precursors have all gone the same way. When that happens, there's good odds that the Oscar will follow. The precursors have all agreed 6 times in the last 20 years. 4 of those times, the film also won the Oscar (Brokeback Mountain - 2005, Slumdog Millionaire - 2008, Gravity - 2013, The Revenant - 2015). One of the times they missed was when Argo won the BAFTA Award, Golden Globe, and DGA Award. Somehow, Argo didn't get an Oscar nomination though, so the Oscar went to Ang Lee's Life of Pi instead. The other time it happened, Ang Lee was on the other side of it. In 2000, Traffic won the Oscar, but Ang Lee's Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon won everything else.

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
DGA - Director - Winner
BAFTA - Director - Winner
Golden Globes - Director - Winner
Different films have different bellwether wins that are musts to believe it can win the Best Picture Oscar. For many films, like Spotlight last year or 12 Years a Slave in 2013, it's a screenplay win. Sometimes, it's an acting win such as Russell Crowe in Gladiator, Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump, or Ben Kingsley in Gandhi. Hell, you could argue it was the Score win for Chariots of Fire. Whatever the win is, it is the one that if the film loses it, you know it's not going their way for Best Picture. Perhaps the most common is the Directing Oscar. That's definitely the case for La La Land. To believe that La La Land is winning Best Picture - spoiler alert: I do - means believing Chazelle will win for his direction as well.

Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
DGA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globes - Director - Nominee
Being ignored by the BAFTA Awards doesn't help. The direction is terrific, but there's no reason to think from the precursors that Jenkins will pull ahead of Chazelle. In the case of the surprise Moonlight Best Picture win though, this win would be a requirement. Since Moonlight is the most likely spoiler for Best Picture, that makes Jenkins the most likely spoiler for this award.

Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
DGA - Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globes - Director - Nominee
Lonergan is still seen far more as a writer than a director. Maybe that perception will shift some year. This is not that year.

Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
DGA - Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director - Nominee
It makes me happy to see Villeneuve nominated. His first nomination feel long overdue even though he's only really been on the scene in the U.S. since 2013.

Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Golden Globes - Director - Nominee
It's fine directing, especially in the latter half of the film. I'm still somewhat perplexed by his inclusion though.