Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
ACS - American Cinematographer Society Award

Even though the precursors for cinematography aren't perfect, if you look at the winners, they normally make sense. You don't find many movies that win only cinematography. After the big four (acting, editing, directing, and screenplay) it's the next most likely category to match the best picture winner. Don't expect the voters to overthink this one.
The BAFTA award for Cinematography has called the last 4 winners and hasn't failed to nominate the eventual Oscar winner in at least 20 years. It has only matched 9 of the last 20 winners though.
The American Society of Cinematographers are about as reliable. They've matched 11 of the last 20 winners and nominated the Oscar winner 19 times (only missing Pan's Labyrinth in 2006, which could be a result of it being a foreign film).

La La Land
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
ASC - Cinematography - Winner
I've mentioned the possibility of a La La Land sweep a lot. While I don't expect the movie to break the Oscar record of 11 wins, I expect it will get close. Cinematography is a hard one to argue with. The ASC had all the same nominees as the Oscars and La La Land came away with the win.

Lion
BAFTA - Cinematography - Winner
ASC - Cinematography - Nominee
I feel safe saying that the BAFTAs have more love for Lion than the Oscars will. The BAFTA win still makes it the second most likely winner.

Arrival
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
ASC - Cinematography - Nominee
The last 20 Oscar winners have been nominated for the BAFTA and Arrival is the only other Oscar nominee recognized by them. More often than not, when the BAFTA and ASC don't agree on a winner, neither of their picks win the Oscar. Combine those two facts and Arrival is quite the Dark Horse.

Silence
ASC - Cinematography - Nominee
The cinematography carries this film. Silence was ignored everywhere else by the Academy, which isn't great for its odds. It's one of those films like Pan's Labyrinth or Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon that could end up winning on the overwhelming strength of the cinematography.

Moonlight
ASC - Cinematography - Nominee
While this is a beautiful film, more people are focused on the performances and screenplay.