Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography

Glossary:
Eddie -  American Cinema Editors Award
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

The Editing award is another one with two precursors: the Eddie and the BAFTA. The Eddie is handed out by the American Cinema Editors. It's an incredibly reliable precursor. It has matched the Oscar winner 16 of the last 20 years and hasn't missed nominating the winner in that time. It's has been less reliable lately though, going 2-3 in the last 5 years. The BAFTA is currently on a run of calling 7 of the last 9 winner. They were only 2 of 11 before that.

La La Land
Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Winner
BAFTA - Film Editing - Nominee
Damian Chazelle's last film, Whiplash, won this award. It was also about music, although edited much differently. It's hard to find trends for the Editing award, but it likes to go to Oscar winners and "runners up". Since it's hard to really even notice editing when it's done right, I'll assume the voters will take the easy route and vote La La Land.

Arrival
Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Winner
BAFTA - Film Editing - Nominee
The Drama Film Editing Eddie has a stronger history of picking Oscar winners than the Comedy/Musical does (a meaningless comparison in a year like this). The time-hoppy story calls attention to the editing. As the most showy nominee, it's the best potential spoiler for La La Land (think: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo in 2011 or The Bourne Ultimatum in 2007).

Hacksaw Ridge
Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Nominee
BAFTA - Film Editing - Winner
The BAFTA, not the Eddie, predicted Whiplash's somewhat surprising editing win two years ago. That has me a little worried that I'm not placing Hacksaw Ridge high enough. The truth is, the Sound Editing award is more in love with war movies than the Film Editing Oscar. The Hurt Lock won in 2009 as part of a Best Picture campaign. Saving Private Ryan won for Film Editing in 1998 in one of those tech. award sweeps like Fury Road last year. Blackhawk Down in 2000 is the only recent war movie winner that didn't enjoy an Oscar frontrunner status at any point in the season.

Moonlight
Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Nominee
As I said, a lot of "runner-up" movies tend to win this. Moonlight looks like the only film capable of knocking La La Land out of Best Picture, however unlikely that would be. So, by my own logic, that gives them a chance at the Editing Oscar. I wouldn't count on it though.

Hell or High Water
Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Nominee
It's improbable enough that this movie was remembered at all by the Oscar voters. A win here would be too much to ask for.