Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
ADG - Art Director's Guild Award

Production Design is one of the lazier awards. It's one of those that will come along for the ride when one movie sweeps the technical categories. I compared correlated categories and noticed that Production Design and Costume Design agree the second most of any set of categories. What that means is that voters pick whatever they think looks busy or pretty.
The BAFTA award is an OK precursor. It has nominated the Oscar winner 19 of the last 20 years. They only matched winners 8 times in those two decades. More recently, they've picked 6 of the last 8 winners.
The Art Director's Guild Awards are a great indicator. They've nominated the Oscar nominee each of the last 20 years and matched winners 13 times.

La La Land
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Contemporary Production Design - Winner
La La Land will win this as part of a big sweep on Oscar night. That's a hunch. That said, it lost the BAFTA and, in 20 years, a contemporary production has never won the Oscar. The voters are period and fantasy crazy. That's not encouraging.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
BAFTA - Production Design - Winner
ADG - Fantasy Production Design - Nominee
The BAFTA win is nice. But, ask yourself, does "Oscar winner Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them" sound right to you?" I didn't think so.

Arrival
ADG - Fantasy Production Design - Nominee
Arrival got so many nominations that it seems like it could win something.

Passengers
ADG - Fantasy Production Design - Winner
Passengers did beat two other Oscar nominees for the ADG award and that is a good looking spaceship that did a lot of the work for the story.

Hail, Caesar!
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Period Production Design - Nominee
This is the first time a Coen brothers movie has even been nominated for production design since Barton Fink in 1991 and that didn't win the Oscar either. I really liked the production design for this movie, but it feels like an Oscar afterthought.