I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominee from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Oscar Nomination Thoughts
Introduction & Documentary Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Cinematography
Editing
Live-Action, Animated, and Documentary Short
Song & Score
Animated Feature
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association Award
WGA - Writers Guild of America Awards
There's enough overlap between what happens in the two screenplay categories that I'm going to talk about them together. Thanks to odd rules, restrictions, and categorizing, the precursor awards for screenplay aren't great.
The WGA award is the most reliable on both sides...I think. You see, the WGA is stricter than the Oscars about what is eligible. They only accept screenplays from members of the guild. So, there's always a couple Oscar nominees that, because they are from Pixar or foreign writers or any number of reasons, aren't eligible for the WGA Award. It's tough to track down lists of what isn't eligible for the WGA, so I can only account for 2010-present. On the Original Screenplay side, the WGA Award has matched the winner of the Oscar 3 of the last 6. The 3 times it missed were because the Oscar winner was ineligible for the WGA award. Similarly, for the Adapted Screenplay, they've called 5 of the last 6 Oscar winners. The one they missed was also ineligible for the WGA award. What that means is, that you can put good money on either the WGA winner or what wasn't eligible to win the Oscar. Based on that, this year, for Original Screenplay, it would be between Moonlight (winner) and The Lobster (ineligible) and for Adapted Screenplay, it would be between Arrival (winner) and Lion (ineligible). That is, if Moonlight wasn't nominated as an Adapted Screenplay for the Oscar instead of Original Screenplay, where everyone else had it. Thanks Oscars, for making something straightforward much more confusing.
The BAFTA Award is less reliable but easier to translate. Original Screenplay has matched the Oscar winner 10 out of the last 20 times and nominated the winner 18 times in the same span. Adapted Screenplay is less reliable, going 7/20 for matching winners and 17/20 for nominating the eventual winner.
The Golden Globes don't bother dividing screenplay up, so it literally can't call both the Original and Adapted Screenplay winners. That said, it's very consistent at picking one. The winner of the Golden Globe has gone on to win the screenplay Oscar in its category 15 of the last 20 times. To pad those numbers further, 3 of the 5 misses (Globe winners who didn't win an Oscar) weren't even nominated for a screenplay Oscar at all. That means, the Golden Globe winner is functionally 15/17 over the last two decades.
Original Screenplay
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globes - Screenplay - Winner
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
The three heavy-hitters of the screenplay pack are La La Land, Manchester, and Moonlight. Moonlight is mercifully out of the Original Screenplay field, which opens things up for La La Land. Basically, I'm comparing La La Land's Golden Globe win to Manchester's BAFTA win. Globe winners have a much better track record of going onto winning Oscars. I do worry that people will assume that La La Land is more directed than written. It's the same stupid logic that makes people credit comedies to the actors more than the writing. That's a rant for another time.
Manchester by the Sea
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Winner
Golden Globes - Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
I really wish either La La Land or Manchester could've won the WGA award to clarify things more. I worry that voters could look at this as Manchester's best place to win with Affleck's chances fading late. I wouldn't be sad to see Manchester win. I'm just banking on the idea the the Golden Globe's predictive success isn't a fluke. But, how does the saying go: Don't trust a Golden Globe any further than you can buy it a dinner.
The Lobster
WGA - Ineligible
Past the top two, everything else is a major upset. The WGA ineligibility makes The Lobster the biggest wildcard in the field.
Hell or High Water
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globes - Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Taylor Sheridan's screenplay has been there every step of the way and hasn't won anywhere. That isn't very encouraging.
20th Century Women
Another member of the 2017 "Just happy to be nominated" club.
Adapted Screenplay
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globes - Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Original Screenplay - Winner
We are in uncharted territory here. The only other case of a movie switching between Original and Adapted screenplay in the middle of the award season like this that I could find is Whiplash a couple years ago, and it wasn't going to win no matter what category it was nominated in. Moonlight won the WGA Award against the much competitive Original Screenplay field. The move to Adapted all but locked the award up. I've been a major pre-Oscar apologist telling people to not expect Moonlight to not win much, but even I'd lose it if this screenplay doesn't run away with this win award.
Arrival
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Winner
The WGA win is meaningless without Moonlight to go up against. All else the same, it would be my pick to win without Moonlight. Eric Heisserer's screenplay is a tricky one. Looking back though, the "tricky" screenplays win in the Original Screenplay more often (for obvious reasons when you think about it).
Lion
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Winner
WGA - Ineligible
The BAFTA win isn't nothing and the WGA ineligibility makes it more of a wildcard. Again though, the discussion is moot with Moonlight in the field.
Fences
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
There's gotta be some August Wilson fans out there.
Hidden Figures
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
This is such an unassuming screenplay. It's the kind of film that plays so smoothly, you forget it even has a screenplay.
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